2 ms·
> at what point does the over-sterilization of our environment (specifically with regard to microbes) do more harm than good? This is a valid concern, here is
by criticaltinker 5y ago
> at what point does the over-sterilization of our environment (specifically with regard to microbes) do more harm than good?
This is a valid concern, here is a relevant peer-reviewed paper that models the impacts that interventions such as lock-downs, masking, and excessive sanitization may have in the context of the ongoing pandemic [1].
Quotes from [1]:
> Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases.
> we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza
> Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period.
> We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021–2022.
> Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality
The most important takeaway from this paper is that it will be critical to prepare for this phenomenon to prevent the over-utilization of healthcare facilities across the globe. Personally I don't see how anyone could argue for longer and more intense NPIs if we begin to see this play out.
[1] The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/48/30547 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/48/30547