> To predict the baseline total number of medals each country might be expected to win in any given summer Olympics, we updated a linear regression model produc

> To predict the baseline total number of medals each country might be expected to win in any given summer Olympics, we updated a linear regression model produced by Julia Bredtmann, Carsten J Crede and Sebastian Otten ahead of the Rio Olympics. > Mimicking the original work by Bredtmann, Crede and Otten, we built the same model and fitted it on data for each Summer Olympic year between 1992 and 2008, and then used it to predict the medals table at London 2012. The full model outperforms a naive model that uses only the number of medals a country won and the year of the Games. > We then fitted the same model on data up to and including the 2016 Rio Games, and used this to predict medal counts for Tokyo 2020 (using the latest available data for each input, i.e forecasts for GDP per capita and population in 2021). Model: https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00915.x https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1740-...