3 ms·

It doesn't matter. If prices rise gradually, people will adapt. Remote villages might become ghost towns (hardly the first time in Canada, incidentally), or b

by emn13 5y ago

It doesn't matter. If prices rise gradually, people will adapt. Remote villages might become ghost towns (hardly the first time in Canada, incidentally), or become more isolated. And the world isn't going to turn into some utopian egalitarian place either, so the hard reality is that many people won't lose anything by losing air travel, because they already do none, and thus those that have that luxurious habit now will not need to suddenly lose it; there's time to adapt. Most of the US certainly doesn't need air travel either, and train or even road travel can be quite emissions poor; it just means travel will take more time (and willingness to build infrastructure). A more realistic scenario is one in which inequality does not change significantly - and then the reductions are less severe. But seriously: losing most air travel (or just cheap air travel): if that's it, count yourself lucky!

Permit 5y ago
> If prices rise gradually, people will adapt. I think this is where you and I disagree. I would contend that the average citizen will resist this. I am basing this off what we saw in France when they introduced a very modest fuel tax. I think this is an issue that would actually unite both the left and the right. I suspect that if we made air travel, meat and fresh (flown-in) produce only available to the wealthiest 0.X% of our population we would see widespread outrage. It would be seen as just another example of inequality.
- emn13 5y ago
  So first of all - France is known for it's remarkable protest culture. That's not typical. Secondly, the fuel tax in question, while reasonable and necessary, is also a somewhat special case even in France because it represents taking away peoples everyday mobility. As cars electrify, that will be less so, and other measures - such as those targeting luxury travel like air travel - would surely not see quite the same levels of protest. And at this point, because the protests were widespread, and because they succeeded, there is going to be vigilance against sneaky plans by the government to pass it while nobody is watching - but that too is a fairly local issue. I expect that even in France those tax hikes will eventually pass, even if it takes longer than elsewhere and much longer than other measures. It may need some other compromise, like a comparable tax-reduction for median incomes; and some level of political maneuvering to placate the particularly hard hit. Or perhaps they'll try to achieve similar reductions via other measures such as speed limits and regulations on cars. But I don't think it's representative of social upheaval vs. climate-change cost in general, anyhow.
  - rixed 5y ago
    > France is known for it's remarkable protest culture. It's also known for its remarkably high tax rate on fiul: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax#/media/File%3AFuel_tax_in_OECD_countries%2C_2010..png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax#/media/File%3AFuel_...

by emn13 5y ago

Permit 5y ago

> If prices rise gradually, people will adapt. I think this is where you and I disagree. I would contend that the average citizen will resist this. I am basing this off what we saw in France when they introduced a very modest fuel tax. I think this is an issue that would actually unite both the left and the right. I suspect that if we made air travel, meat and fresh (flown-in) produce only available to the wealthiest 0.X% of our population we would see widespread outrage. It would be seen as just another example of inequality.

emn13 5y ago
So first of all - France is known for it's remarkable protest culture. That's not typical. Secondly, the fuel tax in question, while reasonable and necessary, is also a somewhat special case even in France because it represents taking away peoples everyday mobility. As cars electrify, that will be less so, and other measures - such as those targeting luxury travel like air travel - would surely not see quite the same levels of protest. And at this point, because the protests were widespread, and because they succeeded, there is going to be vigilance against sneaky plans by the government to pass it while nobody is watching - but that too is a fairly local issue. I expect that even in France those tax hikes will eventually pass, even if it takes longer than elsewhere and much longer than other measures. It may need some other compromise, like a comparable tax-reduction for median incomes; and some level of political maneuvering to placate the particularly hard hit. Or perhaps they'll try to achieve similar reductions via other measures such as speed limits and regulations on cars. But I don't think it's representative of social upheaval vs. climate-change cost in general, anyhow.
- rixed 5y ago
  > France is known for it's remarkable protest culture. It's also known for its remarkably high tax rate on fiul: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax#/media/File%3AFuel_tax_in_OECD_countries%2C_2010..png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax#/media/File%3AFuel_...