4 ms·

This assumes infection leads to immunity. It doesn't seem to be clear that this is true.

by bagels 5y ago

jampekka 5y ago
It's the default assumption given practically every other known virus, and is the core assumption of all epidemiological modeling. Somehow all what is known from epidemiology and virology has been thrown out of the window during COVID. If SARS-CoV-2 is somehow involved the sky is falling on us on any moment unless otherwise proven. Bizarre. Don't know if they have a part in this, but at least it's extremely profitable for pharma to assume there's no immunity but what they provide.
criticaltinker 5y ago
Here are some primary sources which support the fact that infection leads to robust and durable immunity. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf [2] Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v3.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...
- galangalalgol 5y ago
  I know three people who got it twice and another who is a friend of a friend. Only one of those is known to be immunocompromised. Two of those got it the second time after also being vaccinated. I do wonder though if some of the second cases aren't people going in with the flu and having some covid fragments in their nose.
  - xienze 5y ago
    > I do wonder though if some of the second cases aren't people going in with the flu and having some covid fragments in their nose. This is why using PCR tests cranked up to absurd cycle counts isn't the best way to determine _infection_.
    - galangalalgol 5y ago
      though nations like Australia that did flu checks last year estimated it was almost absent, and of those that tested positive very small percentages were vaccinated, so if its the flu, the covid vaccine is the best flu vaccine ever.
- azinman2 5y ago
  N=1, but I now know many people who have been vaccinated that have since been infected, where as up until recently I knew 2 people who got it this entire time (I'm in SF). One of these new people is a co-worker who got covid last year, then got Pfizer vaccinated, then got it again and almost was hospitalized. He's 29 and fit, and as far as I know, is not immunocompromised. All the data shows that vaccination provides protection, but with all these new variants coming out (expect more over time), I don't believe herd immunity is any more possible than herd immunity with the flu or common cold.
  - jMyles 5y ago
    > I don't believe herd immunity is any more possible than herd immunity with the flu or common cold. This seems to me to be a very strange thing to say. We know precisely what the pattern is for herd immunity in the case of a coronavirus, because four of them cause what you are calling a "common cold". It's endemic equilibrium. To my knowledge, there is no dispute among experts on this point. So to say that we can't achieve herd immunity because of its similarity to a virus against which we are indeed herd immune is, at best, begging the question. If you have six minutes, this is a very acute description of the endemic equilibrium effect of herd immunity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsmDJYhteQs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsmDJYhteQs

This assumes infection leads to immunity. It doesn't seem to be clear that this is true.

by bagels 5y ago

This assumes infection leads to immunity. It doesn't seem to be clear that this is true.

It's the default assumption given practically every other known virus, and is the core assumption of all epidemiological modeling. Somehow all what is known from epidemiology and virology has been thrown out of the window during COVID. If SARS-CoV-2 is somehow involved the sky is falling on us on any moment unless otherwise proven. Bizarre. Don't know if they have a part in this, but at least it's extremely profitable for pharma to assume there's no immunity but what they provide.

criticaltinker 5y ago

Here are some primary sources which support the fact that infection leads to robust and durable immunity. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf [2] Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v3.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...

galangalalgol 5y ago
I know three people who got it twice and another who is a friend of a friend. Only one of those is known to be immunocompromised. Two of those got it the second time after also being vaccinated. I do wonder though if some of the second cases aren't people going in with the flu and having some covid fragments in their nose.
- xienze 5y ago
  > I do wonder though if some of the second cases aren't people going in with the flu and having some covid fragments in their nose. This is why using PCR tests cranked up to absurd cycle counts isn't the best way to determine _infection_.
  - galangalalgol 5y ago
    though nations like Australia that did flu checks last year estimated it was almost absent, and of those that tested positive very small percentages were vaccinated, so if its the flu, the covid vaccine is the best flu vaccine ever.
azinman2 5y ago
N=1, but I now know many people who have been vaccinated that have since been infected, where as up until recently I knew 2 people who got it this entire time (I'm in SF). One of these new people is a co-worker who got covid last year, then got Pfizer vaccinated, then got it again and almost was hospitalized. He's 29 and fit, and as far as I know, is not immunocompromised. All the data shows that vaccination provides protection, but with all these new variants coming out (expect more over time), I don't believe herd immunity is any more possible than herd immunity with the flu or common cold.
- jMyles 5y ago
  > I don't believe herd immunity is any more possible than herd immunity with the flu or common cold. This seems to me to be a very strange thing to say. We know precisely what the pattern is for herd immunity in the case of a coronavirus, because four of them cause what you are calling a "common cold". It's endemic equilibrium. To my knowledge, there is no dispute among experts on this point. So to say that we can't achieve herd immunity because of its similarity to a virus against which we are indeed herd immune is, at best, begging the question. If you have six minutes, this is a very acute description of the endemic equilibrium effect of herd immunity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsmDJYhteQs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsmDJYhteQs