5 ms·

> There has been zero mutations for immune escape, so far all mutations were for higher infectivity. You're making very broad claims here that are again contra

> There has been zero mutations for immune escape, so far all mutations were for higher infectivity. You're making very broad claims here that are again contradicted by the literature, see [1]. The very short paper you linked to "Transmission Dynamics of an Outbreak of the COVID-19 Delta Variant B.1.617.2" does not even discuss vaccination status. I'm inclined to believe you linked to the wrong paper - or you haven't thoroughly reviewed it yourself. I'm not interested in arguments based on logical deductions. Show me the peer-reviewed sources backing your point and I will happily read them with an open mind. [1] SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion by the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant of concern https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/science.abi7994 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/scie...

sudosysgen 5y ago
China had around 10% vaccination rate by the time the data was collected. You are again posting evidence that does not back your argument. Any mutation in the RBD will affect immunity. The question is whether these mutations were from selection pressure from the vaccine or for higher infectivity. Given that the evolutionary millieu had low vaccination rate and that the variants are more infective in non-vaccinated populations, we know this is not the case. If you can find an article that shows that vaccines cause evolution of variants, then post it. Otherwise, don't, I'm not interested in non-sequiturs.
- criticaltinker 5y ago
  > If you can find an article that shows that vaccines cause evolution of variants, then post it Here are several more peer-reviwed primary sources that present strong evidence & theories supporting the fact that "vaccines cause evolution of variants" [1][2][3][4]. Note that, no one is claiming that ONLY vaccines cause evolution of variants - obviously a virus will evolve naturally through random mutation as well, and that is acknowledged in the cited sources. > You are again posting evidence that does not back your argument If you take a few minutes to read the sources I've linked to in the this thread, you will see that they corroborate everything I have stated. These ideas are relatively new in the last decade or two, so you may not have heard of them before. That does not mean they are unfounded or based on logical fallacies as you claim. > Given that the evolutionary millieu had low vaccination rate and that the variants are more infective in non-vaccinated populations, we know this is not the case. You continue to use the same unsupported points and build on them with logical deduction. I have given you plenty of counter-arguments supported by peer-reviewed literature. If you have nothing else to add to the discussion, then I will not be continuing it. [1] Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1002198 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fj... [2] The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/30EC8AB1717BF7A173CF5E051DBB498F/S003118201500092Xa_hi.pdf/_div_class__title__The_adaptive_evolution_of_virulence__a_review_of_theoretical_predictions_and_empirical_tests__div_.pdf https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/c... [3] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016... [4] Monitor for COVID-19 vaccine resistance evolution during clinical trials https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001000 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Actually, literally none of the article you linked have evidence that any of the current variants are due to vaccines. They provide a plausible mechanism by which future variants may be cause by vaccines. But simply none have done so by now. I'm going to stop replying because you are actively mischaracterizing your argument, ie, arguing one thing and then providing evidence and arguments from another.
    - criticaltinker 5y ago
      It seems we've been talking past each other, so as a last ditch effort to reconcile our perspectives - we are in agreement that there is no definitive evidence that vaccines are the sole origin of the current variants. In fact it's likely that neutral genetic drift was the origin. What I provided evidence for, and what we also seem to agree on, is that "They provide a plausible mechanism by which future variants may be caused (or enhanced) by vaccines". > But simply none have done so by now. Time will tell - we just don't have the scientific evidence to support a conclusion either way on this yet.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        Every single dominant variant has originated in a country without mass vaccination. There is data. We know that no variants of concern have been caused by vaccines. We all know that if vaccines are not effective enough for herd immunity, then cases of variants due to vaccines are likely to happen. They haven't yet, and it is possible they never happen.
        pbak 5y ago
        Check your timelines. Every single variant, dominant or not, originated before vaccines were available...
    - Banyonite 5y ago
      Sudosysgen, while a number of your assertions would be interesting to debate, they have been very broad and without supporting evidence, which makes any meaningful discussion beyond trading opinions impossible. Edit- added "meaningful"
croes 5y ago
So why did the variants emerge from low rate vaccination areas instead of the US, Israel or Europe. If vaccines lead to immune escape (misleading term because escape sounds like an active process but it's just a passive result of natural selection) you could expect higher vaccination rate countries as the source of variants.
- criticaltinker 5y ago
  > you could expect higher vaccination rate countries as the source of variants It does not matter where or how the variants originated - in fact it's very likely that variants arose under neutral genetic drift. What matters is the selective pressure induced by the current mRNA vaccines which illicit an immune response that is highly targeted toward the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. Here are some excerpts from [1], I highly suggest reading it if you're interested in these ideas: - "The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for many vaccines and antibody-based prophylactics aimed at bringing COVID-19 under control." - "Such a narrow molecular focus raises the specter of viral immune evasion as a potential failure mode for these biomedical interventions. With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD?" - "Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection." - "The speed at which nAb resistance develops in the population increases substantially as the number of infected individuals increases, suggesting that complementary strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission that exert specific pressure on other proteins (e.g., antiviral prophylactics) or that do not exert a specific selective pressure on the virus (e.g., high-efficiency air filtration, masking, ultraviolet air purification) are key to reducing the risk of immune escape" - "Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities"
- pbak 5y ago
  The timeline doesn't work in your reasoning. Vaccines aren't a factor as they weren't available when any of the variants emerged. The emergence can't be either the vaxxed or the unvaxxed's fault. Nobody's responsible or culpable, it's entropy. Of the current strains which are active everywhere : - Alpha emerged in the UK before vaccines - Beta in SA before vaccines - Delta and Gamma in India before vaccines. Of the current variants of interest: - Eta and Iota come respectively from France+UK and New York City, both before vaccines. - Epsilon (not of interest anymore) came from California before vaccines. Same for theta in the Philippines. - Kappa and Lambda come respectively from India and Peru, both before vaccines. As for who's at fault for spreading : vaxxing 60% of the population only drops Deltas R_0 from 4.6 to 4.3. It is immaterial whether you are vaxxed. The virus is smarter. See my comment for details : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28076327 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28076327

sudosysgen 5y ago

China had around 10% vaccination rate by the time the data was collected. You are again posting evidence that does not back your argument. Any mutation in the RBD will affect immunity. The question is whether these mutations were from selection pressure from the vaccine or for higher infectivity. Given that the evolutionary millieu had low vaccination rate and that the variants are more infective in non-vaccinated populations, we know this is not the case. If you can find an article that shows that vaccines cause evolution of variants, then post it. Otherwise, don't, I'm not interested in non-sequiturs.

criticaltinker 5y ago
> If you can find an article that shows that vaccines cause evolution of variants, then post it Here are several more peer-reviwed primary sources that present strong evidence & theories supporting the fact that "vaccines cause evolution of variants" [1][2][3][4]. Note that, no one is claiming that ONLY vaccines cause evolution of variants - obviously a virus will evolve naturally through random mutation as well, and that is acknowledged in the cited sources. > You are again posting evidence that does not back your argument If you take a few minutes to read the sources I've linked to in the this thread, you will see that they corroborate everything I have stated. These ideas are relatively new in the last decade or two, so you may not have heard of them before. That does not mean they are unfounded or based on logical fallacies as you claim. > Given that the evolutionary millieu had low vaccination rate and that the variants are more infective in non-vaccinated populations, we know this is not the case. You continue to use the same unsupported points and build on them with logical deduction. I have given you plenty of counter-arguments supported by peer-reviewed literature. If you have nothing else to add to the discussion, then I will not be continuing it. [1] Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1002198 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fj... [2] The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/30EC8AB1717BF7A173CF5E051DBB498F/S003118201500092Xa_hi.pdf/_div_class__title__The_adaptive_evolution_of_virulence__a_review_of_theoretical_predictions_and_empirical_tests__div_.pdf https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/c... [3] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016... [4] Monitor for COVID-19 vaccine resistance evolution during clinical trials https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001000 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Actually, literally none of the article you linked have evidence that any of the current variants are due to vaccines. They provide a plausible mechanism by which future variants may be cause by vaccines. But simply none have done so by now. I'm going to stop replying because you are actively mischaracterizing your argument, ie, arguing one thing and then providing evidence and arguments from another.
  - criticaltinker 5y ago
    It seems we've been talking past each other, so as a last ditch effort to reconcile our perspectives - we are in agreement that there is no definitive evidence that vaccines are the sole origin of the current variants. In fact it's likely that neutral genetic drift was the origin. What I provided evidence for, and what we also seem to agree on, is that "They provide a plausible mechanism by which future variants may be caused (or enhanced) by vaccines". > But simply none have done so by now. Time will tell - we just don't have the scientific evidence to support a conclusion either way on this yet.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      Every single dominant variant has originated in a country without mass vaccination. There is data. We know that no variants of concern have been caused by vaccines. We all know that if vaccines are not effective enough for herd immunity, then cases of variants due to vaccines are likely to happen. They haven't yet, and it is possible they never happen.
      - pbak 5y ago
        Check your timelines. Every single variant, dominant or not, originated before vaccines were available...
  - Banyonite 5y ago
    Sudosysgen, while a number of your assertions would be interesting to debate, they have been very broad and without supporting evidence, which makes any meaningful discussion beyond trading opinions impossible. Edit- added "meaningful"

croes 5y ago

So why did the variants emerge from low rate vaccination areas instead of the US, Israel or Europe. If vaccines lead to immune escape (misleading term because escape sounds like an active process but it's just a passive result of natural selection) you could expect higher vaccination rate countries as the source of variants.

criticaltinker 5y ago
> you could expect higher vaccination rate countries as the source of variants It does not matter where or how the variants originated - in fact it's very likely that variants arose under neutral genetic drift. What matters is the selective pressure induced by the current mRNA vaccines which illicit an immune response that is highly targeted toward the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. Here are some excerpts from [1], I highly suggest reading it if you're interested in these ideas: - "The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for many vaccines and antibody-based prophylactics aimed at bringing COVID-19 under control." - "Such a narrow molecular focus raises the specter of viral immune evasion as a potential failure mode for these biomedical interventions. With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD?" - "Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection." - "The speed at which nAb resistance develops in the population increases substantially as the number of infected individuals increases, suggesting that complementary strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission that exert specific pressure on other proteins (e.g., antiviral prophylactics) or that do not exert a specific selective pressure on the virus (e.g., high-efficiency air filtration, masking, ultraviolet air purification) are key to reducing the risk of immune escape" - "Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities"
pbak 5y ago
The timeline doesn't work in your reasoning. Vaccines aren't a factor as they weren't available when any of the variants emerged. The emergence can't be either the vaxxed or the unvaxxed's fault. Nobody's responsible or culpable, it's entropy. Of the current strains which are active everywhere : - Alpha emerged in the UK before vaccines - Beta in SA before vaccines - Delta and Gamma in India before vaccines. Of the current variants of interest: - Eta and Iota come respectively from France+UK and New York City, both before vaccines. - Epsilon (not of interest anymore) came from California before vaccines. Same for theta in the Philippines. - Kappa and Lambda come respectively from India and Peru, both before vaccines. As for who's at fault for spreading : vaxxing 60% of the population only drops Deltas R_0 from 4.6 to 4.3. It is immaterial whether you are vaxxed. The virus is smarter. See my comment for details : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28076327 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28076327