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Correlation is not causation. This unfortunately demonstrates a common misunderstanding of how to interpret data; if there are more left-handed people compared

Correlation is not causation. This unfortunately demonstrates a common misunderstanding of how to interpret data; if there are more left-handed people compared to the general population in prison, does it mean that the justice system is biased against people who are left-handed? That may still be true, but you simply cannot draw a correct conclusion without additional data along a different axis.

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SavantIdiot 5y ago
> does it mean that the justice system is biased against people who are left-handed? Yes. That is literally the definition of a statistical bias. From wikipedia: Statistical bias is a feature of a statistical technique or of its results whereby the expected value of the results differs from the true underlying quantitative parameter being estimated.
- gunapologist99 5y ago
  You are misinterpreting a small slice of the data, perhaps deliberately, or perhaps based on your biases based on things you are certain are true, but might not actually be true. There are a number of possibilities aside from the justice system being biased against these particular left-handed defendants. Note that the lefties still might be biased against within the justice system, but the incarceration statistic alone is not enough to prove that conclusion. Here's a couple of possibilities: 1) the left-handed people are more likely to be caught, even though both right- and left- handed people are equally effective at committing crimes. It's even possible that right-handed are even MORE effective at committing crimes, but perhaps right-handed people can escape the scene faster than left-handed people. 2) even if enforcement was perfectly equal and without any bias in the justice system at all, left-handed people might come from a location or environment that offers an opportunity to commit crimes more often than the general population. There are other possibilities, but the data that you have shared, even if it had perfect accuracy and precision, doesn't actually prove causality. It doesn't even come close, except to uncritical journalists who don't really understand data science or researchers who let their own agenda or biases drive their science.
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SavantIdiot 5y ago

> does it mean that the justice system is biased against people who are left-handed? Yes. That is literally the definition of a statistical bias. From wikipedia: Statistical bias is a feature of a statistical technique or of its results whereby the expected value of the results differs from the true underlying quantitative parameter being estimated.

gunapologist99 5y ago
You are misinterpreting a small slice of the data, perhaps deliberately, or perhaps based on your biases based on things you are certain are true, but might not actually be true. There are a number of possibilities aside from the justice system being biased against these particular left-handed defendants. Note that the lefties still might be biased against within the justice system, but the incarceration statistic alone is not enough to prove that conclusion. Here's a couple of possibilities: 1) the left-handed people are more likely to be caught, even though both right- and left- handed people are equally effective at committing crimes. It's even possible that right-handed are even MORE effective at committing crimes, but perhaps right-handed people can escape the scene faster than left-handed people. 2) even if enforcement was perfectly equal and without any bias in the justice system at all, left-handed people might come from a location or environment that offers an opportunity to commit crimes more often than the general population. There are other possibilities, but the data that you have shared, even if it had perfect accuracy and precision, doesn't actually prove causality. It doesn't even come close, except to uncritical journalists who don't really understand data science or researchers who let their own agenda or biases drive their science.
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