4 ms·

This is highly misleading. All variants right now are significantly more effective at transmission in unvaccinated individuals. The reason the mutations are o

This is highly misleading. All variants right now are significantly more effective at transmission in unvaccinated individuals. The reason the mutations are on the spike protein is because it's the part of the virus that matters the most for infectivity. The more effective the spike protein, the more easily other people are affected and the faster the virus is produced. The Delta variant itself rose in India, which has really low vaccination rates.

criticaltinker 5y ago
This is not misleading at all, GP's point is well founded and backed by peer-reviewed literature, see [1]. I have more references if you're interested. > All variants right now are significantly more effective at transmission in unvaccinated individuals. Please cite your primary source(s). [1] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  The article you linked does not say what you think it says. It says that mutation for immune escape is possible. There has been zero mutations for immune escape, so far all mutations were for higher infectivity. Beyond that, we do know that all variants are more infective in unvaccinated individuals : http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/fileCCDCW/journal/img/cover/ffd464f2-ff7e-4bcf-8210-e7fb781fbb50.pdf#page=18 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/fileCCDCW/journal/img/cover/ffd464... If it wasn't, it would never have out-competed the ancestral type in unvaccinated India. The OP's point was that vaccines drove mutations. So far, that has not happened. There is no variant that is more infective in vaccinated individuals but not in unvaccinated individuals, all variants are simply more effective across the board.
  - criticaltinker 5y ago
    > There has been zero mutations for immune escape, so far all mutations were for higher infectivity. You're making very broad claims here that are again contradicted by the literature, see [1]. The very short paper you linked to "Transmission Dynamics of an Outbreak of the COVID-19 Delta Variant B.1.617.2" does not even discuss vaccination status. I'm inclined to believe you linked to the wrong paper - or you haven't thoroughly reviewed it yourself. I'm not interested in arguments based on logical deductions. Show me the peer-reviewed sources backing your point and I will happily read them with an open mind. [1] SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion by the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant of concern https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/science.abi7994 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/scie...
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      China had around 10% vaccination rate by the time the data was collected. You are again posting evidence that does not back your argument. Any mutation in the RBD will affect immunity. The question is whether these mutations were from selection pressure from the vaccine or for higher infectivity. Given that the evolutionary millieu had low vaccination rate and that the variants are more infective in non-vaccinated populations, we know this is not the case. If you can find an article that shows that vaccines cause evolution of variants, then post it. Otherwise, don't, I'm not interested in non-sequiturs.
      - criticaltinker 5y ago
        > If you can find an article that shows that vaccines cause evolution of variants, then post it Here are several more peer-reviwed primary sources that present strong evidence & theories supporting the fact that "vaccines cause evolution of variants" [1][2][3][4]. Note that, no one is claiming that ONLY vaccines cause evolution of variants - obviously a virus will evolve naturally through random mutation as well, and that is acknowledged in the cited sources. > You are again posting evidence that does not back your argument If you take a few minutes to read the sources I've linked to in the this thread, you will see that they corroborate everything I have stated. These ideas are relatively new in the last decade or two, so you may not have heard of them before. That does not mean they are unfounded or based on logical fallacies as you claim. > Given that the evolutionary millieu had low vaccination rate and that the variants are more infective in non-vaccinated populations, we know this is not the case. You continue to use the same unsupported points and build on them with logical deduction. I have given you plenty of counter-arguments supported by peer-reviewed literature. If you have nothing else to add to the discussion, then I will not be continuing it. [1] Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1002198 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fj... [2] The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/30EC8AB1717BF7A173CF5E051DBB498F/S003118201500092Xa_hi.pdf/_div_class__title__The_adaptive_evolution_of_virulence__a_review_of_theoretical_predictions_and_empirical_tests__div_.pdf https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/c... [3] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016... [4] Monitor for COVID-19 vaccine resistance evolution during clinical trials https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001000 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
Ancapistani 5y ago
> All variants right now are significantly more effective at transmission in unvaccinated individuals. This is what's being said, but it's not what the data seem to show. In the recent surge in cases in Provincetown, MA, 69% of people were fully vaccinated but 74% of confirmed positive cases were among that subgroup. Obviously there are confounding factors here but it seems readily apparent that delta isn't "significantly more effective at transmission in unvaccinated individuals". CDC study: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm7031e2_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm...
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  I don't think you understood the argument correctly. Do you claim that the Delta variant is not more infective in non-vaccinated individuals? Do you understand that the Delta variant outcompeted other variants in India, with a vaccination rate lower than 10%? Beyond that, please don't cite subgroups of data when we have larger groups. By selecting specific outbreaks despite larger data you can p-hack any conclusion.
  - Ancapistani 5y ago
    > Do you claim that the Delta variant is not more infective in non-vaccinated individuals? In this study, there were more infections in the vaccinated group. That defies logic, though, and intuitively the infection rate of the vaccinated group cannot be higher than that of the unvaccinated. That's why I mentioned confounding factors. From this study and others, I believe the vaccines used in the US do not provide substantial protection against infection by delta. > Do you understand that the Delta variant outcompeted other variants in India, with a vaccination rate lower than 10%? Yes, which means that it is more infectious. Its resistance (or lack of) to the vaccines isn't really relevant in a country with a 10% vaccination rate. The fact that it's outcompeting other variants in countries with relatively high vaccination rates likely means that the vaccines are less effective against it. > Beyond that, please don't cite subgroups of data when we have larger groups. We're specifically talking about delta here, and I'm unaware of a study based upon a larger cohort where a statistically significant number of cases were sequenced, the variant determined, and the dominant variant found to be delta. > By selecting specific outbreaks despite larger data you can p-hack any conclusion. Again - show me the larger data here.
pbak 5y ago
> The Delta variant itself rose in India, which has > really low vaccination rates. Vaccines became available in India on February 1st, 2021. The delta variant was first detected during the same week. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260142v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260142v... I hardly believe it managed to both mutate and be detected within that week. Accordingly, it couldn't evolve due to either selective pressure driven by vaccines, nor a lackadaisical anti-vaxx attitude. It just happened randomly, as such things do. Nobody's responsible, nobody's culpable. Check your facts, and you prejudices, against whomever they may be.
- criticaltinker 5y ago
  > Accordingly, it couldn't evolve due to either selective pressure driven by vaccines You seem to be missing the critical fact that - regardless of whether the mutation evolved by pure random chance or via a vaccinated individual - the selective pressure induced through mass vaccination using a highly targeted vaccine can drive further evolution of the virus. To support my statement, see the reasoning in this paper from very well respected researchers at top institutions across the country [1]. Or take a look at the historical examples of vaccine induced immune escape, for example in chickens [2], or other human viruses [3]. [1] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ [2] Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1002198 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fj... [3] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016...
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    You're making the argument that it might happen in the future. The original argument was that it did happen. Beyond that, the main factor for vaccine induced immune escape is incomplete vaccination or ineffective vaccination, not targeted vaccination. The existing vaccines are not even that targeted as they target the entire spike protein - the only other antigen source would be the capsid.

criticaltinker 5y ago

This is not misleading at all, GP's point is well founded and backed by peer-reviewed literature, see [1]. I have more references if you're interested. > All variants right now are significantly more effective at transmission in unvaccinated individuals. Please cite your primary source(s). [1] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/

sudosysgen 5y ago
The article you linked does not say what you think it says. It says that mutation for immune escape is possible. There has been zero mutations for immune escape, so far all mutations were for higher infectivity. Beyond that, we do know that all variants are more infective in unvaccinated individuals : http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/fileCCDCW/journal/img/cover/ffd464f2-ff7e-4bcf-8210-e7fb781fbb50.pdf#page=18 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/fileCCDCW/journal/img/cover/ffd464... If it wasn't, it would never have out-competed the ancestral type in unvaccinated India. The OP's point was that vaccines drove mutations. So far, that has not happened. There is no variant that is more infective in vaccinated individuals but not in unvaccinated individuals, all variants are simply more effective across the board.
- criticaltinker 5y ago
  > There has been zero mutations for immune escape, so far all mutations were for higher infectivity. You're making very broad claims here that are again contradicted by the literature, see [1]. The very short paper you linked to "Transmission Dynamics of an Outbreak of the COVID-19 Delta Variant B.1.617.2" does not even discuss vaccination status. I'm inclined to believe you linked to the wrong paper - or you haven't thoroughly reviewed it yourself. I'm not interested in arguments based on logical deductions. Show me the peer-reviewed sources backing your point and I will happily read them with an open mind. [1] SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion by the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant of concern https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/science.abi7994 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/scie...
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    China had around 10% vaccination rate by the time the data was collected. You are again posting evidence that does not back your argument. Any mutation in the RBD will affect immunity. The question is whether these mutations were from selection pressure from the vaccine or for higher infectivity. Given that the evolutionary millieu had low vaccination rate and that the variants are more infective in non-vaccinated populations, we know this is not the case. If you can find an article that shows that vaccines cause evolution of variants, then post it. Otherwise, don't, I'm not interested in non-sequiturs.
    - criticaltinker 5y ago
      > If you can find an article that shows that vaccines cause evolution of variants, then post it Here are several more peer-reviwed primary sources that present strong evidence & theories supporting the fact that "vaccines cause evolution of variants" [1][2][3][4]. Note that, no one is claiming that ONLY vaccines cause evolution of variants - obviously a virus will evolve naturally through random mutation as well, and that is acknowledged in the cited sources. > You are again posting evidence that does not back your argument If you take a few minutes to read the sources I've linked to in the this thread, you will see that they corroborate everything I have stated. These ideas are relatively new in the last decade or two, so you may not have heard of them before. That does not mean they are unfounded or based on logical fallacies as you claim. > Given that the evolutionary millieu had low vaccination rate and that the variants are more infective in non-vaccinated populations, we know this is not the case. You continue to use the same unsupported points and build on them with logical deduction. I have given you plenty of counter-arguments supported by peer-reviewed literature. If you have nothing else to add to the discussion, then I will not be continuing it. [1] Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1002198 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fj... [2] The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/30EC8AB1717BF7A173CF5E051DBB498F/S003118201500092Xa_hi.pdf/_div_class__title__The_adaptive_evolution_of_virulence__a_review_of_theoretical_predictions_and_empirical_tests__div_.pdf https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/c... [3] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016... [4] Monitor for COVID-19 vaccine resistance evolution during clinical trials https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001000 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...

Ancapistani 5y ago

> All variants right now are significantly more effective at transmission in unvaccinated individuals. This is what's being said, but it's not what the data seem to show. In the recent surge in cases in Provincetown, MA, 69% of people were fully vaccinated but 74% of confirmed positive cases were among that subgroup. Obviously there are confounding factors here but it seems readily apparent that delta isn't "significantly more effective at transmission in unvaccinated individuals". CDC study: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm7031e2_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm...

sudosysgen 5y ago
I don't think you understood the argument correctly. Do you claim that the Delta variant is not more infective in non-vaccinated individuals? Do you understand that the Delta variant outcompeted other variants in India, with a vaccination rate lower than 10%? Beyond that, please don't cite subgroups of data when we have larger groups. By selecting specific outbreaks despite larger data you can p-hack any conclusion.
- Ancapistani 5y ago
  > Do you claim that the Delta variant is not more infective in non-vaccinated individuals? In this study, there were more infections in the vaccinated group. That defies logic, though, and intuitively the infection rate of the vaccinated group cannot be higher than that of the unvaccinated. That's why I mentioned confounding factors. From this study and others, I believe the vaccines used in the US do not provide substantial protection against infection by delta. > Do you understand that the Delta variant outcompeted other variants in India, with a vaccination rate lower than 10%? Yes, which means that it is more infectious. Its resistance (or lack of) to the vaccines isn't really relevant in a country with a 10% vaccination rate. The fact that it's outcompeting other variants in countries with relatively high vaccination rates likely means that the vaccines are less effective against it. > Beyond that, please don't cite subgroups of data when we have larger groups. We're specifically talking about delta here, and I'm unaware of a study based upon a larger cohort where a statistically significant number of cases were sequenced, the variant determined, and the dominant variant found to be delta. > By selecting specific outbreaks despite larger data you can p-hack any conclusion. Again - show me the larger data here.

pbak 5y ago

> The Delta variant itself rose in India, which has > really low vaccination rates. Vaccines became available in India on February 1st, 2021. The delta variant was first detected during the same week. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260142v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260142v... I hardly believe it managed to both mutate and be detected within that week. Accordingly, it couldn't evolve due to either selective pressure driven by vaccines, nor a lackadaisical anti-vaxx attitude. It just happened randomly, as such things do. Nobody's responsible, nobody's culpable. Check your facts, and you prejudices, against whomever they may be.

criticaltinker 5y ago
> Accordingly, it couldn't evolve due to either selective pressure driven by vaccines You seem to be missing the critical fact that - regardless of whether the mutation evolved by pure random chance or via a vaccinated individual - the selective pressure induced through mass vaccination using a highly targeted vaccine can drive further evolution of the virus. To support my statement, see the reasoning in this paper from very well respected researchers at top institutions across the country [1]. Or take a look at the historical examples of vaccine induced immune escape, for example in chickens [2], or other human viruses [3]. [1] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ [2] Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1002198 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fj... [3] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016...
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  You're making the argument that it might happen in the future. The original argument was that it did happen. Beyond that, the main factor for vaccine induced immune escape is incomplete vaccination or ineffective vaccination, not targeted vaccination. The existing vaccines are not even that targeted as they target the entire spike protein - the only other antigen source would be the capsid.