5 ms·

Vaccination reduces the exponential in the transmission. More hospital beds just fights a constant. Doubling healthcare capacity roughly lasts for about 3 extr

Vaccination reduces the exponential in the transmission. More hospital beds just fights a constant. Doubling healthcare capacity roughly lasts for about 3 extra days if no other measure is in place. I'm all for improving healthcare, in the US or otherwise, but you just can't fire up and destroy healthcare resources like it's your k8s cluster.

linuxftw 5y ago
> Vaccination reduces the exponential in the transmission Which trials demonstrated this?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- tehjoker 5y ago
  All of them. Even if the breakthrough infections are the same as an unvaccinated person (still being studied, but I've heard everything from one third to same for the first six days), there are fewer infections overall. This causes a sharp average reduction in R0.
  - linuxftw 5y ago
    The injections were only found to be efficacious in preventing severe illness. Everything else is conjecture at best.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - tehjoker 5y ago
      They were found to inhibit infection via PCR testing and comparison with a control group. There may be a waning effect, especially with delta. I don't believe they're perfect by any means, but they certainly aren't worthless.
      - linuxftw 5y ago
        That is absolutely not something the found in the clinical trials.
        tehjoker 5y ago
        "Results: BNT162b2 continued to be safe and well tolerated. Few participants had adverse events leading to study withdrawal. VE against COVID-19 was 91% (95% CI 89.0‒93.2) through up to 6 months of follow-up, among evaluable participants and irrespective of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. VE of 86%‒100% was seen across countries and in populations with diverse characteristics of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and COVID-19 risk factors in participants without evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. VE against severe disease was 97% (95% CI 80.3‒ 99.9). In South Africa, where the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, B.1.351 (beta), was predominant, 100% (95% CI 53.5, 100.0) VE was observed." ... "Among 42,094 evaluable ≥12-year-olds without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 77 COVID-19 cases with onset ≥7 days post-dose 2 were observed through the data cut-off (March 13, 2021) among vaccine recipients and 850 among placebo recipients, corresponding to 91.3% VE (95% CI [89.0-93.2]; Table 2). Among 44,486 evaluable participants, irrespective of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 81 COVID-19 cases were observed among vaccine and 873 among placebo recipients, corresponding to 91.1% VE (95% CI [88.8-93.0]). In the all-available population with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection based on positive baseline N-binding antibody test, 2 COVID-19 cases were observed post-dose 1 among vaccine and 7 among placebo recipients. In participants with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection by positive nucleic acid amplification test at baseline, no difference in COVID-19 cases was observed between vaccine (n=10) and placebo (n=9) recipients (Table S5). COVID-19 was less frequent among placebo recipients with positive N-binding antibodies at study entry (7/542; ~1.3% attack rate) than among those without evidence of infection at study entry (1015/21,521; ~4.7% attack rate), indicating ~72.6% protection by previous infection." ... Efficacy peaked at 96.2% during the interval from 7 days to <2 months post-dose 2, and declined gradually to 83.7% from 4 months post-dose 2 to the data cut-off, an average decline of ~6% every 2 months. Ongoing follow-up is needed to understand persistence of the vaccine effect over time, the need for booster dosing, and timing of such a dose. Most participants who initially received placebo have now been immunized with BNT162b2, ending the placebo-controlled part of the study. Nevertheless, ongoing observation of participants through up to 2 years in this study, together with real-world effectiveness data,14-17 will determine whether a booster is likely to be beneficial after a longer interval. Booster trials to evaluate safety and immunogenicity of BNT162b2 are underway to prepare for this possibility. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v...

linuxftw 5y ago

> Vaccination reduces the exponential in the transmission Which trials demonstrated this?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
tehjoker 5y ago
All of them. Even if the breakthrough infections are the same as an unvaccinated person (still being studied, but I've heard everything from one third to same for the first six days), there are fewer infections overall. This causes a sharp average reduction in R0.
- linuxftw 5y ago
  The injections were only found to be efficacious in preventing severe illness. Everything else is conjecture at best.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - tehjoker 5y ago
    They were found to inhibit infection via PCR testing and comparison with a control group. There may be a waning effect, especially with delta. I don't believe they're perfect by any means, but they certainly aren't worthless.
    - linuxftw 5y ago
      That is absolutely not something the found in the clinical trials.
      - tehjoker 5y ago
        "Results: BNT162b2 continued to be safe and well tolerated. Few participants had adverse events leading to study withdrawal. VE against COVID-19 was 91% (95% CI 89.0‒93.2) through up to 6 months of follow-up, among evaluable participants and irrespective of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. VE of 86%‒100% was seen across countries and in populations with diverse characteristics of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and COVID-19 risk factors in participants without evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. VE against severe disease was 97% (95% CI 80.3‒ 99.9). In South Africa, where the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, B.1.351 (beta), was predominant, 100% (95% CI 53.5, 100.0) VE was observed." ... "Among 42,094 evaluable ≥12-year-olds without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 77 COVID-19 cases with onset ≥7 days post-dose 2 were observed through the data cut-off (March 13, 2021) among vaccine recipients and 850 among placebo recipients, corresponding to 91.3% VE (95% CI [89.0-93.2]; Table 2). Among 44,486 evaluable participants, irrespective of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 81 COVID-19 cases were observed among vaccine and 873 among placebo recipients, corresponding to 91.1% VE (95% CI [88.8-93.0]). In the all-available population with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection based on positive baseline N-binding antibody test, 2 COVID-19 cases were observed post-dose 1 among vaccine and 7 among placebo recipients. In participants with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection by positive nucleic acid amplification test at baseline, no difference in COVID-19 cases was observed between vaccine (n=10) and placebo (n=9) recipients (Table S5). COVID-19 was less frequent among placebo recipients with positive N-binding antibodies at study entry (7/542; ~1.3% attack rate) than among those without evidence of infection at study entry (1015/21,521; ~4.7% attack rate), indicating ~72.6% protection by previous infection." ... Efficacy peaked at 96.2% during the interval from 7 days to <2 months post-dose 2, and declined gradually to 83.7% from 4 months post-dose 2 to the data cut-off, an average decline of ~6% every 2 months. Ongoing follow-up is needed to understand persistence of the vaccine effect over time, the need for booster dosing, and timing of such a dose. Most participants who initially received placebo have now been immunized with BNT162b2, ending the placebo-controlled part of the study. Nevertheless, ongoing observation of participants through up to 2 years in this study, together with real-world effectiveness data,14-17 will determine whether a booster is likely to be beneficial after a longer interval. Booster trials to evaluate safety and immunogenicity of BNT162b2 are underway to prepare for this possibility. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v...