4 ms·

I suspect the argument about long term effects is intentionally misleading. It will be impossible to convince most of those people about long term effects until

by II2II 5y ago

I suspect the argument about long term effects is intentionally misleading. It will be impossible to convince most of those people about long term effects until the long term has come to pass. The chart in the article even alludes to that, with < 15% saying they'd get vaccinated if there was full FDA approval. That is likely as close as we'll get to a statement of there being no long term effects in the near future. As for "shortcuts" being taken in the approval process, the normal process is intended for situations where there is less urgency. The combination of a high infection rate and relatively high mortality rate has a large social impact and it has a large economic impact, regardless of whether anything is done to mitigate spread. The provisional approval is necessary, it still reflects high standards for safety, and it does not imply a lack of safety. Edit: for clarity.

effie 5y ago
> relatively high mortality rate Can you quantify that? How many people died from COVID vs. cancer or transport accidents?
- throwaway2016a 5y ago
  I think it is reasonable to look at excess death counts since the number of deaths in any given week can be predicted with reasonable accuracy statistically. So assuming most excess deaths are due to COVID and not other causes (likely more actually are since deaths for things like Flu and car crashes were down this year due to social distancing): Anywhere from 6,000 to 30,000 deaths a WEEK in the US alone between May 2020 and May 2021 [1] Or in other words, enough to put it as the third leading cause of death globally[2] and the NUMBER TWO cause in the United States. Now some people can and will argue that COVID deaths are misattributed because of co-morbities. However, the excess death statistics pretty clearly suggest that to not be the case. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm [2] https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-how-do-deaths-due-covid-19-stack https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-how-do-deaths... I only did a few minutes of searching so I'm not sure how accurate thinkglobalhealth.org but I trust the CDC numbers quite a bit.
  - effie 5y ago
    So, mortality due to COVID is similar to mortality due to stroke. Most of deaths probably in similar age groups, although probably COVID may kill younger people more than stroke does.

by II2II 5y ago

effie 5y ago

> relatively high mortality rate Can you quantify that? How many people died from COVID vs. cancer or transport accidents?

throwaway2016a 5y ago
I think it is reasonable to look at excess death counts since the number of deaths in any given week can be predicted with reasonable accuracy statistically. So assuming most excess deaths are due to COVID and not other causes (likely more actually are since deaths for things like Flu and car crashes were down this year due to social distancing): Anywhere from 6,000 to 30,000 deaths a WEEK in the US alone between May 2020 and May 2021 [1] Or in other words, enough to put it as the third leading cause of death globally[2] and the NUMBER TWO cause in the United States. Now some people can and will argue that COVID deaths are misattributed because of co-morbities. However, the excess death statistics pretty clearly suggest that to not be the case. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm [2] https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-how-do-deaths-due-covid-19-stack https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-how-do-deaths... I only did a few minutes of searching so I'm not sure how accurate thinkglobalhealth.org but I trust the CDC numbers quite a bit.
- effie 5y ago
  So, mortality due to COVID is similar to mortality due to stroke. Most of deaths probably in similar age groups, although probably COVID may kill younger people more than stroke does.