4 ms·

People dying from covid are old, to very old, and/or in poor to very poor health. People dying from and having adverse reactions to the "vaccines" are young to

People dying from covid are old, to very old, and/or in poor to very poor health. People dying from and having adverse reactions to the "vaccines" are young to not that old, and in good health. Big piece of the puzzle you are ommiting there.

wwweston 5y ago
Let's put those puzzle pieces together: In the US, over 300 million doses of covid-19 vaccines have been administered so far. Reported deaths of any cause (regardless of any established connection with the vaccine) among this group was on the order of 6000 people as of the end of July. [0] US covid-19 cases are around 35 million and 600k deaths. How many of those were "young to not that old"? Well, one count[1] would put us at about 28k under 50, 10k under 40. Let's be generous to the "vaccines are a threat to the young" position and assume for the sake of argument that ALL of the 6000 VAERS reported deaths were in fact caused by the vaccine and were ALL people under 40. Even making those assumptions, the order-of-magnitude difference in vaccination events vs infection events makes it utterly clear that covid itself is at least 10x more dangerous to people under 40 than receiving a vaccination is. And if you dig into the adverse vaccine event specifics, my bet is that you find a pretty similar distribution of adverse effects -- sure, some of them are young people, just like some covid deaths are young people, but not most of them. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...
- Zababa 5y ago
  Shouldn't we take into account that someone dying earlier is worse than someone dying old? Not sure if that would flip the balance, it may for people around 20-25 maybe, or at least balance things.
  - wwweston 5y ago
    If we've established that the vaccine is 1/10th the risk of covid itself to younger people (which I think I did in my comment), as far as I can tell any extra weight that might be assigned to preserving young life just falls out of the problem. People do work with numbers like "Years of Life Lost," and FWIW I think that can inform some conversations even though I don't think it helps much with this one. It is not the end-all-be-all, though. You could, for example, look at the social costs of losing the accumulated experience/wisdom/social capital of people over a certain age, which may be why some societies emphasize respect for the elderly.
    - Zababa 5y ago
      You did for people under 40, and I agree with your point, but I'm wondering if the results are the same for people that are between 20 and 30 for example. I find that 75% of the people that died of COVID under 40 were under 30 and 40 with https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm. So the risk would be more around 1/3rd (give or take) of the risk of covid itself, following your calculations. So you're betting that less than a third of people between 20 and 30 will get covid (again, give or take and highly in "my" favor, as you yourself pushed the data on this side already). Considering that we still don't know the long terms effect of the vaccine, I can understand that someone between 20 and 30 without comorbidities would think that it's reasonable to wait and see, especially if he's less at risk (lives in the countryside for example, remote work, things like that). > You could, for example, look at the social costs of losing the accumulated experience/wisdom/social capital of people over a certain age, which may be why some societies emphasize respect for the elderly. That's a good point. You could also add a different value for years depending on the age, as people often value their youth more. 1.5 years lost when you're in college or starting your first job is not the same as when you're in your 70s and retired.

wwweston 5y ago

Let's put those puzzle pieces together: In the US, over 300 million doses of covid-19 vaccines have been administered so far. Reported deaths of any cause (regardless of any established connection with the vaccine) among this group was on the order of 6000 people as of the end of July. [0] US covid-19 cases are around 35 million and 600k deaths. How many of those were "young to not that old"? Well, one count[1] would put us at about 28k under 50, 10k under 40. Let's be generous to the "vaccines are a threat to the young" position and assume for the sake of argument that ALL of the 6000 VAERS reported deaths were in fact caused by the vaccine and were ALL people under 40. Even making those assumptions, the order-of-magnitude difference in vaccination events vs infection events makes it utterly clear that covid itself is at least 10x more dangerous to people under 40 than receiving a vaccination is. And if you dig into the adverse vaccine event specifics, my bet is that you find a pretty similar distribution of adverse effects -- sure, some of them are young people, just like some covid deaths are young people, but not most of them. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...

Zababa 5y ago
Shouldn't we take into account that someone dying earlier is worse than someone dying old? Not sure if that would flip the balance, it may for people around 20-25 maybe, or at least balance things.
- wwweston 5y ago
  If we've established that the vaccine is 1/10th the risk of covid itself to younger people (which I think I did in my comment), as far as I can tell any extra weight that might be assigned to preserving young life just falls out of the problem. People do work with numbers like "Years of Life Lost," and FWIW I think that can inform some conversations even though I don't think it helps much with this one. It is not the end-all-be-all, though. You could, for example, look at the social costs of losing the accumulated experience/wisdom/social capital of people over a certain age, which may be why some societies emphasize respect for the elderly.
  - Zababa 5y ago
    You did for people under 40, and I agree with your point, but I'm wondering if the results are the same for people that are between 20 and 30 for example. I find that 75% of the people that died of COVID under 40 were under 30 and 40 with https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm. So the risk would be more around 1/3rd (give or take) of the risk of covid itself, following your calculations. So you're betting that less than a third of people between 20 and 30 will get covid (again, give or take and highly in "my" favor, as you yourself pushed the data on this side already). Considering that we still don't know the long terms effect of the vaccine, I can understand that someone between 20 and 30 without comorbidities would think that it's reasonable to wait and see, especially if he's less at risk (lives in the countryside for example, remote work, things like that). > You could, for example, look at the social costs of losing the accumulated experience/wisdom/social capital of people over a certain age, which may be why some societies emphasize respect for the elderly. That's a good point. You could also add a different value for years depending on the age, as people often value their youth more. 1.5 years lost when you're in college or starting your first job is not the same as when you're in your 70s and retired.