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You should probably supplement that with at least one other survey. Trafalgar is by far the most right-leaning polling group and got the 2020 election predictio
by reducesuffering 5y ago
You should probably supplement that with at least one other survey. Trafalgar is by far the most right-leaning polling group and got the 2020 election predictions the most wrong based on their polling. 538 has some more info on their methodical issues.
- jcadam 5y agoEh? According to this article by Nate Silver, Trafalgar did reasonably well in 2020: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is... Especially considering polling in 2020 was way off across the board.
- reducesuffering 5y agoMy mistake, thanks for the calibration. Trafalgar leaned the most towards Trump winning in 2020 so I naively assumed they were off the farthest, but clearly polling in a US election is more complicated than that.