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> Unless, of course, you think that the vaccine is more dangerous than coronavirus. And then I don't really know what to say. I'd still encourage everyone to

> Unless, of course, you think that the vaccine is more dangerous than coronavirus. And then I don't really know what to say. I'd still encourage everyone to vaccinate for pro-social reasons, but for the young and the healthy I don't think this is such a ridiculous assertion. I'm virtually 100% confident that vaccines are completely safe and effective. However for a large fraction of people they will make you feel like shit for 2-5 days. Let's just do a quick QALY based tradeoff for a healthy 25-year old. To make it interesting let's also say that she was already previously infected with Covid. The baseline CFR for this age group is approximately 0.004%. For someone with antibodies this number's at least 50% for subsequent infections. Assuming 70 years of remaining life expectancy, Covid infection would lead to the loss of 12 hours of life expectancy. In contrast, I'd definitely prefer to be dead than live with the post-vaccine symptoms I experienced. And for me the suffering lasted about 96 hours. And I'm not atypical here. In that sense, vaccines are nearly ten times worse from a QALY perspective than the risk of being unvaccinated. Again, all that being said, I was vaccinated and would encourage everyone else to do the same. But for the typical healthy 20-something, skipping the vaccine isn't necessarily irrational-- just selfish.

dan-robertson 5y ago
I’m a healthy 25 year old. I think simple QALY metrics for me getting the vaccine or risking getting COVID naturally are roughly even (the COVID side fluctuates as the chance of getting the virus changes) at around a 1e-6 chance of serious complications. The AstraZeneca vaccine seems to have a slightly higher chance of complications. These simple, individualised analyses are about the extent of what public health authorities may do when deciding on the safety or benefits of a treatment. However they exclude other advantages to being a person with a vaccine: - maybe some of your friends are being very cautious about the virus (for rational or irrational reasons) and being your vaccinated means more meaningful interactions with them - maybe your employer lets vaccinated people return to the office (and you want to return). Or maybe there are other things that require vaccines (when I went up to university I had to confirm that I’d had a bunch of vaccines, for example) - maybe you want to be altruistic and reduce the risk you cause to other people - better ability to travel internationally - if everyone does it then there is less of an ability for further mutations to develop I mostly understand why health authorities are limited, and perhaps those simple statistics are the right thing to communicate to the public. But I think in our society as it is, getting the vaccine is still +ve EV for young people.
herbstein 5y ago
> However for a large fraction of people they will make you feel like shit for 2-5 days. I'm healthy and 23 years old. I've had Covid. The feeling of being out of breath for 2 weeks straight is horrible. You'd think you would get used to it but you don't. It was a constant struggle that kept me from falling asleep. Feeling like shit for a couple of days, but only the "known" headache and soreness, is strictly preferable. I've been vaccinated with Moderna (the mRNA vaccine with the worse side-effects as far as I can tell) and had a mild case of symptomatic Covid. Getting the vaccine is vastly preferable to the chance of getting symptomatic Covid.

dan-robertson 5y ago

I’m a healthy 25 year old. I think simple QALY metrics for me getting the vaccine or risking getting COVID naturally are roughly even (the COVID side fluctuates as the chance of getting the virus changes) at around a 1e-6 chance of serious complications. The AstraZeneca vaccine seems to have a slightly higher chance of complications. These simple, individualised analyses are about the extent of what public health authorities may do when deciding on the safety or benefits of a treatment. However they exclude other advantages to being a person with a vaccine: - maybe some of your friends are being very cautious about the virus (for rational or irrational reasons) and being your vaccinated means more meaningful interactions with them - maybe your employer lets vaccinated people return to the office (and you want to return). Or maybe there are other things that require vaccines (when I went up to university I had to confirm that I’d had a bunch of vaccines, for example) - maybe you want to be altruistic and reduce the risk you cause to other people - better ability to travel internationally - if everyone does it then there is less of an ability for further mutations to develop I mostly understand why health authorities are limited, and perhaps those simple statistics are the right thing to communicate to the public. But I think in our society as it is, getting the vaccine is still +ve EV for young people.

herbstein 5y ago

> However for a large fraction of people they will make you feel like shit for 2-5 days. I'm healthy and 23 years old. I've had Covid. The feeling of being out of breath for 2 weeks straight is horrible. You'd think you would get used to it but you don't. It was a constant struggle that kept me from falling asleep. Feeling like shit for a couple of days, but only the "known" headache and soreness, is strictly preferable. I've been vaccinated with Moderna (the mRNA vaccine with the worse side-effects as far as I can tell) and had a mild case of symptomatic Covid. Getting the vaccine is vastly preferable to the chance of getting symptomatic Covid.