4 ms·

Once upon a time there was town called Statisticsville with a population of 1000 people. Every year around 8 people die. Sometimes 7, sometimes 9. One year, a n

by umvi 5y ago

Once upon a time there was town called Statisticsville with a population of 1000 people. Every year around 8 people die. Sometimes 7, sometimes 9. One year, a new infectious disease came along and killed 2 additional people (both elderly). The population nearly had a civil war over these additional 2 deaths because some people thought the additional 2 deaths could have been prevented with better enforced public health practices while the other group thought it wasn't worth the social/economic costs. Looking forward to the next year, the people were still divided into two groups - those who were worried that the infectious disease might kill another person, and those that didn't really care much. The discord and contention between the groups escalated with each side increasingly rigid and unable to empathize with the other side until violence broke out and Statisticsville descended into anarchy. The End

poslathian 5y ago
Not sure why downvoted. Do people think this comment indicates you are an antivaxxer? Which part of the comment suggests that?
- stevenalowe 5y ago
  perhaps the part where the virus death rate is off by a factor of 10
  - umvi 5y ago
    Huh, in what way was it off by a factor of 10? Population of USA is 330M [0] 2,854,838 registered deaths in 2019, which is 0.8% of the population, or about 8 in 1000 [1] As of December 31 2020, around 400k people had died of covid in the USA, but let's just be conservative and pretend 600k people died in 2020. 600k out of 330M is 0.18% of the population or about 2 in 1000 [2] [0] https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_dat...
    - CarelessExpert 5y ago
      Nah, it's the part where you and the author conveniently fail to point out that that 600k fatality number (which is close to the current number in the US) is after taking truly historic measures to prevent disease transmission. Had we truly done nothing that number would be significantly higher. But, of course, as was so very predictable at the start, because these measures were in fact pretty effective at slowing spread and preventing death, we have folks saying "Well gee, that wasn't so bad was it!" I quite literally predicted that outcome 18 months ago, and I'm glad to see I wasn't disappointed...
      - umvi 5y ago
        I padded the death count by 50% to account for this in the story (400k people died of covid in the USA in 2020, not 600k). If you compare covid deaths per capita across various states, you won't find huge differences even though some states had extreme restrictions in place (California) and some states had lax restrictions in place (Utah, Florida, etc). Say there's a parallel universe where masks and social distancing were encouraged but optional and business were not forced to shut down and people were not ordered to shelter in place. How much higher is the covid death count per year in this fictional parallel universe? More than 50%? 2-3x higher? If you have any real-world examples you could point to to make your case, that would be helpful. Anyway, all this doesn't really matter though, because you missed the point of the story. The point of the story was that (for Statisticsville, at least) the people were so busy fighting amongst themselves about what actions to take (or not) about an infectious disease that they didn't realize the deadly side effects of that social discord until it was too late. Will the USA avoid the deadly consequences of its current social discord and become a united people again before it's too late? Stay tuned to find out!
        CarelessExpert 5y ago
        > If you have any real-world examples you could point to to make your case, that would be helpful. India or Brazil would seem to be the obvious counterfactuals. Unfortunately, their officially reported death rates probably can't be trusted so the best we can do is look at excess deaths, and in India, as an example, it's... pretty ugly: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/20/1018438334/indias-pandemic-death-toll-estimated-at-about-4-million-10-times-the-official-co https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/20/1018438... That's closer to 3 deaths per thousand, or 50% higher than your estimate. Putting that in context, assuming 8 deaths per thousand as a baseline, that number going to 11 per thousand is a 40% increase in excess deaths. And that's ignoring that those deaths will be concentrated in specific cohorts (the elderly, the vulnerable, people in high risk jobs, etc) who don't have the luxury of working from a cozy home office. > The point of the story was that (for Statisticsville, at least) the people were so busy fighting amongst themselves about what actions to take (or not) about an infectious disease that they didn't realize the deadly side effects of that social discord until it was too late. This is, unfortunately, a unique problem of the US. While there's certainly been plenty of social discord in other countries as a consequence of Covid policies, they've been nowhere near the level of what's seen in the US. The solution isn't to compromise public health policy so as to avoid touching off a partisan foodfight. The solution is to address the root problem that has lead to such severe social discord; to heal those fissures that have opened up in US society that have lead to every single issue being politicized and thus polarized to the detriment of the entire population.
  - NoPie 5y ago
    It is actually correct. US had <2000 covid deaths per million, i.e., 0.2% which is about 2 people from 1000. Most people overestimate death rate by a factor of 10.
- jfengel 5y ago
  The part where the "economic costs" of preventing the disease have been reduced to cheap masks and free vaccines, and yet they're still somehow too high. Because it was never really about the economic costs, but about a longstanding culture war.
rstuart4133 5y ago
That sounds odd way for people to behave. Perhaps there is something else going on in Statisticsville that wasn't mentioned? Maybe, even though only 2 people died, another 8 got admitted to hospital with a serious life threatening disease. Of the 6 that were discharged, 2 suffered continuous relapses requiring multiple readmissions and major life style changes (like stopping work). Or perhaps there was something significant about the extra 2 that died. Maybe, rather being in retirement, they were in their 30's, shouldering the peak of adult responsibilities like child raising?
- rstuart4133 5y ago
  Replying to myself, from https://theconversation.com/s-165250 https://theconversation.com/s-165250 : > For younger people who are unwell enough to be hospitalised with COVID-19, the outcomes can be quite serious. A large study from the United Kingdom showed 27% of 19 to 29-year-olds admitted to hospital suffered some form of organ damage to the liver, lungs or kidneys

by umvi 5y ago

poslathian 5y ago

Not sure why downvoted. Do people think this comment indicates you are an antivaxxer? Which part of the comment suggests that?

stevenalowe 5y ago
perhaps the part where the virus death rate is off by a factor of 10
- umvi 5y ago
  Huh, in what way was it off by a factor of 10? Population of USA is 330M [0] 2,854,838 registered deaths in 2019, which is 0.8% of the population, or about 8 in 1000 [1] As of December 31 2020, around 400k people had died of covid in the USA, but let's just be conservative and pretend 600k people died in 2020. 600k out of 330M is 0.18% of the population or about 2 in 1000 [2] [0] https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_dat...
  - CarelessExpert 5y ago
    Nah, it's the part where you and the author conveniently fail to point out that that 600k fatality number (which is close to the current number in the US) is after taking truly historic measures to prevent disease transmission. Had we truly done nothing that number would be significantly higher. But, of course, as was so very predictable at the start, because these measures were in fact pretty effective at slowing spread and preventing death, we have folks saying "Well gee, that wasn't so bad was it!" I quite literally predicted that outcome 18 months ago, and I'm glad to see I wasn't disappointed...
    - umvi 5y ago
      I padded the death count by 50% to account for this in the story (400k people died of covid in the USA in 2020, not 600k). If you compare covid deaths per capita across various states, you won't find huge differences even though some states had extreme restrictions in place (California) and some states had lax restrictions in place (Utah, Florida, etc). Say there's a parallel universe where masks and social distancing were encouraged but optional and business were not forced to shut down and people were not ordered to shelter in place. How much higher is the covid death count per year in this fictional parallel universe? More than 50%? 2-3x higher? If you have any real-world examples you could point to to make your case, that would be helpful. Anyway, all this doesn't really matter though, because you missed the point of the story. The point of the story was that (for Statisticsville, at least) the people were so busy fighting amongst themselves about what actions to take (or not) about an infectious disease that they didn't realize the deadly side effects of that social discord until it was too late. Will the USA avoid the deadly consequences of its current social discord and become a united people again before it's too late? Stay tuned to find out!
      - CarelessExpert 5y ago
        > If you have any real-world examples you could point to to make your case, that would be helpful. India or Brazil would seem to be the obvious counterfactuals. Unfortunately, their officially reported death rates probably can't be trusted so the best we can do is look at excess deaths, and in India, as an example, it's... pretty ugly: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/20/1018438334/indias-pandemic-death-toll-estimated-at-about-4-million-10-times-the-official-co https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/20/1018438... That's closer to 3 deaths per thousand, or 50% higher than your estimate. Putting that in context, assuming 8 deaths per thousand as a baseline, that number going to 11 per thousand is a 40% increase in excess deaths. And that's ignoring that those deaths will be concentrated in specific cohorts (the elderly, the vulnerable, people in high risk jobs, etc) who don't have the luxury of working from a cozy home office. > The point of the story was that (for Statisticsville, at least) the people were so busy fighting amongst themselves about what actions to take (or not) about an infectious disease that they didn't realize the deadly side effects of that social discord until it was too late. This is, unfortunately, a unique problem of the US. While there's certainly been plenty of social discord in other countries as a consequence of Covid policies, they've been nowhere near the level of what's seen in the US. The solution isn't to compromise public health policy so as to avoid touching off a partisan foodfight. The solution is to address the root problem that has lead to such severe social discord; to heal those fissures that have opened up in US society that have lead to every single issue being politicized and thus polarized to the detriment of the entire population.
- NoPie 5y ago
  It is actually correct. US had <2000 covid deaths per million, i.e., 0.2% which is about 2 people from 1000. Most people overestimate death rate by a factor of 10.
jfengel 5y ago
The part where the "economic costs" of preventing the disease have been reduced to cheap masks and free vaccines, and yet they're still somehow too high. Because it was never really about the economic costs, but about a longstanding culture war.

rstuart4133 5y ago

That sounds odd way for people to behave. Perhaps there is something else going on in Statisticsville that wasn't mentioned? Maybe, even though only 2 people died, another 8 got admitted to hospital with a serious life threatening disease. Of the 6 that were discharged, 2 suffered continuous relapses requiring multiple readmissions and major life style changes (like stopping work). Or perhaps there was something significant about the extra 2 that died. Maybe, rather being in retirement, they were in their 30's, shouldering the peak of adult responsibilities like child raising?

rstuart4133 5y ago
Replying to myself, from https://theconversation.com/s-165250 https://theconversation.com/s-165250 : > For younger people who are unwell enough to be hospitalised with COVID-19, the outcomes can be quite serious. A large study from the United Kingdom showed 27% of 19 to 29-year-olds admitted to hospital suffered some form of organ damage to the liver, lungs or kidneys