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Is there evidence NYC's hospital system could be overloaded? UK just peaked (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/); https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/); Does NYC hav

Is there evidence NYC's hospital system could be overloaded? UK just peaked (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/); https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/); Does NYC have significantly worse vaccine coverage in vulnerable populations or worse capacity?

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> Is there evidence NYC's hospital system could be overloaded? My friend, a plastic surgeon, was drafted to tend to an entire floor of folks on ventilators. No other doctors. Occasionally, an exhausted nurse. He spent the last twenty years doing face lifts. I think some patients were in doctor’s offices. We also halted surgeries and cancer patients’ visits and hosts of other stuff to keep the strained system from going New Delhi.
heavyset_go 5y ago
> Is there evidence NYC's hospital system could be overloaded? Yes, because exactly that happened in March and April of 2020, leading to tens of thousands of deaths. Here's your evidence[1][2][3]. [1] https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070475/ https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070... [2] https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavi... [3] https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-...
- usaar333 5y ago
  That's before a considerable amount of population gained some level of immunity. UK experienced relatively low hospitalization in their last wave.
  - heavyset_go 5y ago
    Hospitalizations in the US have increased 400% since the beginning of July, and in NYC specifically[1], they have doubled with steep positive rate-of-change. [1] https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.pag...
    - usaar333 5y ago
      That's not answering though about capacity. UK's went up 8x, but they were nowhere close to hitting capacity. NYC's hospitalizations dipped to ~18 admitted/day citywide in June and are up to ~50 now. But that's a long way from 350 over winter and far away from hitting 1700 in the initial surge. The UK government realized that even with their high case spike (to winter level) that vaccination ensured that hospitalizations would not come close, so they ended restrictions at what in retrospect was their peak cases. Their admission rate hit maybe a quarter of their winter rate even though case rate peak was similar. (vaccine cut hospitalization rate per case by 75%). To my point, unless we're substantially different from the UK, it doesn't look like hospitalization capacity should be a concern with this wave.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> Is there evidence NYC's hospital system could be overloaded? My friend, a plastic surgeon, was drafted to tend to an entire floor of folks on ventilators. No other doctors. Occasionally, an exhausted nurse. He spent the last twenty years doing face lifts. I think some patients were in doctor’s offices. We also halted surgeries and cancer patients’ visits and hosts of other stuff to keep the strained system from going New Delhi.

heavyset_go 5y ago

> Is there evidence NYC's hospital system could be overloaded? Yes, because exactly that happened in March and April of 2020, leading to tens of thousands of deaths. Here's your evidence[1][2][3]. [1] https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070475/ https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070... [2] https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavi... [3] https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-...

usaar333 5y ago
That's before a considerable amount of population gained some level of immunity. UK experienced relatively low hospitalization in their last wave.
- heavyset_go 5y ago
  Hospitalizations in the US have increased 400% since the beginning of July, and in NYC specifically[1], they have doubled with steep positive rate-of-change. [1] https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.pag...
  - usaar333 5y ago
    That's not answering though about capacity. UK's went up 8x, but they were nowhere close to hitting capacity. NYC's hospitalizations dipped to ~18 admitted/day citywide in June and are up to ~50 now. But that's a long way from 350 over winter and far away from hitting 1700 in the initial surge. The UK government realized that even with their high case spike (to winter level) that vaccination ensured that hospitalizations would not come close, so they ended restrictions at what in retrospect was their peak cases. Their admission rate hit maybe a quarter of their winter rate even though case rate peak was similar. (vaccine cut hospitalization rate per case by 75%). To my point, unless we're substantially different from the UK, it doesn't look like hospitalization capacity should be a concern with this wave.