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There's a growing base of evidence in both the US and the Netherlands (from news media websites, I believe), that targeted advertising is effectively a bubble,
by g_p 5y ago
There's a growing base of evidence in both the US and the Netherlands (from news media websites, I believe), that targeted advertising is effectively a bubble, and didn't yield higher metrics or revenues. In fact I believe in a couple of examples, they saw higher growth and revenues from ads by going totally non-targeted.
There's an entire sector now focused on trying to hyper-target ads, on the presumed basis they're more effective. If the house of cards falls down, and people realise untargeted ads perform better without all that extra cost, things could get interesting.
Unfortunately it isn't as simple as that, as "independent" audience measurement seems to still be a requirement that leads to adtech type solutions emerging.
To go back to your observation about the quality of targeting though, this shows in a way that it simply doesn't work... The trouble is advertisers continue to throw money at the services falsely claiming to have these accurate data-driven targeting models, without seemingly ever thinking to cross-validate them to be sure they aren't absolute nonsense of false claims of targeting demographics - your ones having entirely the opposite of Boolean demographics show how wild it can be.
I fetched my data from Spotify and the limited data they had (in theory objective data) was chronically wrong - they had tried to put me into a group based on phone network used, but it didn't even get that right, despite that being trivial to do(!)
- marketingtech 5y agoThere's growing evidence that large media companies can generate revenue from advertising deals from large brands with high-level interest targeting. That doesn't say anything about the performance of targeted ads - just that high-level targeting is a suitable replacement for narrow targeting at a certain scale. That's a separate concern from niche publishers (without direct sales teams) and niche brands (who only have a few thousand dollars to spend on marketing) who both want to maximize the value they're getting from the ecosystem. And that's where the real money in advertising is. Fortune 500 companies boycotted FB last year and it didn't make a dent in their revenue, because they have millions of small businesses that all spend $50 on ads per month. That level of spending is only effective with narrow targeting.
- foobarian 5y agoInteresting. Reminds me of the analogous process of iteratively improving a model or fitness function and over time ending up with something overfit.