4 ms·

Health care impact because of shifting infection wave timeframes. The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does.

by blub 5y ago

xunn0026 5y ago
Did you have a cold the past year? I did not. All because of the social distancing. Turns out if you personally avoid people and crowds (social distancing) and if indoor places are closed there's fewer situations to get any virus. Unless the virus comes on Amazon packages or through the air in the back yard. Kids have been massively more sheltered too. Either by parents or because schools were literally closed. It's a good thing that we are reopening the society by Autumn, so we can have a nice wave of colds, flu and COVID by people that didn't catch anything in 1 year. (As in, I worry a bit about what Autumn will bring). Bubble boy meets bubble society.
- blub 5y ago
  I didn't back in 2020 during the most strict lockdowns, but afterwards sure, plenty of colds. And I hate to brag, but I have a (light) cold right now. :-) For the record, there was nothing special about those after-lockdown-colds compared to regular colds. Based on my own experience and that of other parents I know, I would say that we've sheltered our kids, but as soon as school was back on it was game over.
  - xunn0026 5y ago
    > And I hate to brag, but I have a (light) cold right now. :-) LOL
refurb 5y ago
Was reading a healthcare forum where doctors were giving multiple examples of people with advanced cancer that would have been curable 1 year ago when the patient first noticed it, but now requires major intervention with an uncertain outcome.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  That happened pre-pandemic, too. Some people hate going to the doctor, others are trying to avoid paying their deductible for what turns out to be something benign, etc. Confirmation bias may also be at play. It'll be a while before we know the impact in a data-driven rather than anecdote-driven fashion.
  - krona 5y ago
    statistical breakdown from the British Medical Association: https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2840/the-hidden-impact-of-covid_web-pdf.pdf https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2840/the-hidden-impact-of-covid... I'm sure a qualified actuary will be able to take this data along with models of expected outcomes and give you (well not you, but an insurance company) a fairly good idea of the consequences in terms of lives lost over the next 5 years or so.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      That link backs up my statement: it's a bunch of "we estimate" statements and attempts to model the future based on a survey of ~2k physicians. A qualified actuary will likely admit to uncertainty on something unprecedented like the first pandemic in the modern era.
  - refurb 5y ago
    That’s a total cop out to say it happen pre-pandemic. We’re talking about people actively seeking care being turned away. Not sure you need much data when countries like Canada were canceling all elective surgeries during their Covid waves. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hospitals-elective-surgery-icu-patients-1.5980755 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hosp... This happened in most countries that were hit hard. We’re talking going from a packed schedule of preventative screenings and elective surgeries to zero. The backlog will take years to clear.
dna_polymerase 5y ago
> The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does. Even if you know nothing about medicine, just from the fact that the COVID vaccines need booster shots you should be able to induce that the immune system in fact has a time component to it, and therefor any timeframe has an impact on it's ability. With a little more knowledge on the topic you can see that a single year of basically blocking everyhing off from your immune system makes it less powerful. The flu season will be devastating, and the long term effects of blocking kids from training their immune systems will be even worse.
- RandomLensman 5y ago
  I don't think a booster shot is a good example, lots of other vaccinations are administered in 3 shots. On others, the current view is that one is enough for life. If there is really a degradation in immune capability, is there any evidence of that from other vaccinations not working as well as in the past? How far the immune system is actually depressed from the lockdowns etc., we will find out. Could also be the other way around, i.e. overreaction. What I have not observed since things are getting back to normal in my part of Europe is that everyone gets a cold etc. as soon as they meet more people.
- blub 5y ago
  Your premise that everything was "blocked off" from people's immune systems is wrong and the whole argument falls apart. This is incidentally also addressed explicitly in the article.

Health care impact because of shifting infection wave timeframes. The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does.

by blub 5y ago

Health care impact because of shifting infection wave timeframes. The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does.

xunn0026 5y ago

Did you have a cold the past year? I did not. All because of the social distancing. Turns out if you personally avoid people and crowds (social distancing) and if indoor places are closed there's fewer situations to get any virus. Unless the virus comes on Amazon packages or through the air in the back yard. Kids have been massively more sheltered too. Either by parents or because schools were literally closed. It's a good thing that we are reopening the society by Autumn, so we can have a nice wave of colds, flu and COVID by people that didn't catch anything in 1 year. (As in, I worry a bit about what Autumn will bring). Bubble boy meets bubble society.

blub 5y ago
I didn't back in 2020 during the most strict lockdowns, but afterwards sure, plenty of colds. And I hate to brag, but I have a (light) cold right now. :-) For the record, there was nothing special about those after-lockdown-colds compared to regular colds. Based on my own experience and that of other parents I know, I would say that we've sheltered our kids, but as soon as school was back on it was game over.
- xunn0026 5y ago
  > And I hate to brag, but I have a (light) cold right now. :-) LOL

refurb 5y ago

Was reading a healthcare forum where doctors were giving multiple examples of people with advanced cancer that would have been curable 1 year ago when the patient first noticed it, but now requires major intervention with an uncertain outcome.

ceejayoz 5y ago
That happened pre-pandemic, too. Some people hate going to the doctor, others are trying to avoid paying their deductible for what turns out to be something benign, etc. Confirmation bias may also be at play. It'll be a while before we know the impact in a data-driven rather than anecdote-driven fashion.
- krona 5y ago
  statistical breakdown from the British Medical Association: https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2840/the-hidden-impact-of-covid_web-pdf.pdf https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2840/the-hidden-impact-of-covid... I'm sure a qualified actuary will be able to take this data along with models of expected outcomes and give you (well not you, but an insurance company) a fairly good idea of the consequences in terms of lives lost over the next 5 years or so.
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    That link backs up my statement: it's a bunch of "we estimate" statements and attempts to model the future based on a survey of ~2k physicians. A qualified actuary will likely admit to uncertainty on something unprecedented like the first pandemic in the modern era.
- refurb 5y ago
  That’s a total cop out to say it happen pre-pandemic. We’re talking about people actively seeking care being turned away. Not sure you need much data when countries like Canada were canceling all elective surgeries during their Covid waves. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hospitals-elective-surgery-icu-patients-1.5980755 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hosp... This happened in most countries that were hit hard. We’re talking going from a packed schedule of preventative screenings and elective surgeries to zero. The backlog will take years to clear.

dna_polymerase 5y ago

> The immune system will continue to deal with the viruses as it normally does. Even if you know nothing about medicine, just from the fact that the COVID vaccines need booster shots you should be able to induce that the immune system in fact has a time component to it, and therefor any timeframe has an impact on it's ability. With a little more knowledge on the topic you can see that a single year of basically blocking everyhing off from your immune system makes it less powerful. The flu season will be devastating, and the long term effects of blocking kids from training their immune systems will be even worse.

RandomLensman 5y ago
I don't think a booster shot is a good example, lots of other vaccinations are administered in 3 shots. On others, the current view is that one is enough for life. If there is really a degradation in immune capability, is there any evidence of that from other vaccinations not working as well as in the past? How far the immune system is actually depressed from the lockdowns etc., we will find out. Could also be the other way around, i.e. overreaction. What I have not observed since things are getting back to normal in my part of Europe is that everyone gets a cold etc. as soon as they meet more people.
blub 5y ago
Your premise that everything was "blocked off" from people's immune systems is wrong and the whole argument falls apart. This is incidentally also addressed explicitly in the article.