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"But I don't think [stagnation is] the most likely future." Why not? Thomas Malthus predicted[1] that population would explode and collapse, but it didn't... a
by chmod600 5y ago
"But I don't think [stagnation is] the most likely future."
Why not? Thomas Malthus predicted[1] that population would explode and collapse, but it didn't... and it looks like it's stabilizing.
The author should be wary of making the same mistake.
Come to think about it, a high tech and stable economy could be a very nice place to live. It could also be a totalitarian dystopia, depending on exactly how things play out. But one can at least imagine it working out well.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus
- gpsx 5y agoI think stagnation, or at least a change through successively smaller exponential regimes, should be the base case. I'm bullish on our future tech prospects and I know we have the entire universe from which to draw resources. But for all the real world cases of exponential growth, I think they are all limited. And I only exclude collapse as a base case because I'm an optimist.