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Lebanon is basically reverting to mean, going from a multi-cultural and Christian dominated nation, to a Muslim nation: https://www.economist.com/img/b/580/852

Lebanon is basically reverting to mean, going from a multi-cultural and Christian dominated nation, to a Muslim nation: https://www.economist.com/img/b/580/852/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20161105_MAC127.png https://www.economist.com/img/b/580/852/90/sites/default/fil... The Christian age bracket in the 21-25 age range is 25%, 50 years ago it was 50%. Historically, Lebanon has never been Muslim, the mountains served as isolation from the religious changes of the region, and it was a major centre of Christianity during the crusades, and remained connected with Europe. But in the 20th century, French colonialists enlarged the territory to encompass large areas of Syria, which held Muslim populations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon#Ottoman_Lebanon_and_French_Mandate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon#Ottoman_Lebanon_and_Fr... These populations proceeded to overtake the Christian populations, with the fertility rate in 1971 being 5.44 for Muslims and 3.56 for Christians. This divide remains, in 2004 the fertility rate for Muslims in Lebanon was 1.82, for Christians 1.53: https://www.lstatic.org/PDF/demographenglish.pdf https://www.lstatic.org/PDF/demographenglish.pdf A 2009 study found cousin marriage rates of 30% for Muslims and 16.5% for Christians, cousin marriage is commonplace throughout the Muslim world: https://marciainhorn.com/wp-content/uploads/docs/inhorn-article-inhorn-consanguinity.pdf https://marciainhorn.com/wp-content/uploads/docs/inhorn-arti... In 2019 the GDP per capita of Lebanon was $7583. It will eventually (and seems like rapidly) fall to match its Muslim neighbours eg. Jordan ($4405) Egypt ($1667) Syria ($2032). I realise that these topics are unpopular, but you cannot divorce the economic and social downfall of Lebanon from the demographic changes taking place there.

Overton-Window 5y ago
Further, those same demographic changes are taking place elsewhere too, e.g. take the fertility rates of Native (Christian) and Muslim European populations and project forward a few decades. Lebanon is but a proverbial canary.
- joelbluminator 5y ago
  There is no European country that is gonna have a Muslim majoriry by 2050, the closest one seems to be Sweden but its estimated to become around 20% Muslim by 2050. A lot is dependent on immigration policy. But sure, problems could arise regardless who holds the majority. I do think Europe is VERY far from having Lebanon level problems but we will see.
jgmasters 5y ago
Was/were the leadership(s) that is blamed for this catastrophe Muslim?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- huitzitziltzin 5y ago
  No. The “analysis” above is anti-muslim nonsense. The main roles in the government of Lebanon are split among Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims and Christians. The president is Christian. The prime minister and speaker of parliament are muslim (one Shia and the other Sunni). I am not saying this was a good system - quite obviously it has not worked well. But to blame all of this on Muslims is nonsense. Also important: some features of Lebanese government are invariant to demographic changes bc the government has declined to conduct a new census. For reference: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Lebanon https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Lebanon
  - pram 5y ago
    The government of the Republic doesn’t actually govern swathes of the nation, which are essentially under a parallel Shia Muslim government (Hezbollah) Your “analysis” kinda leaves out that salient fact
  - 0x737368 5y ago
    I don't agree with the idea that a country being Christian means it'll be successful and it being Muslim meaning it'll be a disaster, but surely you can't just disregard demographic changes as "anti-Muslim nonsense". I too categorically don't agree with blaming it on Muslims, I do however reserve judgement about blaming it on Islam - it could have had an effect or it could not.
    - u801e 5y ago
      I find it curious that many of the comments here are talking about demographic changes and religion while signaling out Muslims and/or Islam as one of the primary causes. There are plenty of other countries in the world that have economic problems where the Muslim population is insignificant.
seibelj 5y ago
Rather than a religious issue, perhaps the problem was that the Lebanese diaspora was incentivized with high interest rates to deposit their foreign currency in local banks, which was systemically looted by corrupt officials which eventually collapsed in money printing? Or that’s the understanding I have gathered from Lebanese commenters observing the shenanigans. > That was until 2016, when banks began offering remarkable interest rates for new deposits of dollars - an officially accepted currency in the dollarised economy - and even more extraordinary rates for Lebanese pound deposits. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-lebanon-crisis-financial-explainer-idUKKBN268223 https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-lebanon-crisis-financial-...
xnyan 5y ago
Islam has grown in a troubled country, but how does that imply there's a casual relationship between Islam and poverty/social instability? This is like arguing the use of umbrellas causes the rain - how do your figures prove which part is the cause, and which part is the effect? Or if it's because of something(s) else entirely besides the rise in Islamic population?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
alexitorg 5y ago
Reading the economist, it's been obvious for several years that Lebanon's economy was going to collapse, despite coming out of the GFC well. Take this article from 2018. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/08/30/lebanons-economy-has-long-been-sluggish-now-a-crisis-looms https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/08/30/... Interest rates of 8-9% on US dollar denominated accounts. A 20%, of GDP, foreign account deficit. It was clear that they were paying out interest from deposits and it was unsustainable.
0x737368 5y ago
I have no expertise on this topic so I can't agree or disagree with this analysis, but I'd like to commend you on speaking your thoughts. Too often I have found HN to downvote a comment that goes against the grain until it's dead - can we not have a civilised discussion around difficult topics?
alexitorg 5y ago
Arab countries (whatever religion), in particular, seem to be mired in corruption. And corruption seems, to me, to be a low trust equilibrium of societies that is hard to get out of. The cycle seems to go: You can't trust authority to help you, So you must rely on your family or patronage to get ahead, In return you become obligated to your own network, If you get authority you misuse your power to favour your own (besides everyone else is doing it), and outsiders can't trust authority to help them. The lack of trust discourages investment. Why invest if someone else will use their power to take the proceeds away. It seems to me the this is the main reason that there still are poor countries in the world. I've heard that there is an afghan saying: "brother before cousin, cousin before clan, clan before country." But the examples are endless: Arab clan/sect networks, Mafia bosses, Roman Patricians, Feudal lords, Chinese Guanxi patronage networks, African tribal networks.
u801e 5y ago
> I realise that these topics are unpopular, but you cannot divorce the economic and social downfall of Lebanon from the demographic changes taking place there. You could run a global regular expression substitution and replace Christian with white, Muslim with black, and Lebanon with the US. It would also work by replacing Muslim with Hispanics or illegals with the other substitutions as mentioned earlier.
pasabagi 5y ago
So when you read that people believed lesbians cause hurricanes, or jews cause the plague, you think 'how could people be so stupid!' but if you add some figures, some magic words ('populations', 'demographics'), I find myself nodding along! Muslims cause economic crises! Truly humbling analysis.
Darmody 5y ago
You forgot the civil war which led to Christians and Jewish people to flee, something very common in the Middle East. There's "peace" until there's no peace and only a group of people is allowed to stay.
oliwarner 5y ago
Your comment is beyond distasteful, it's lazy and racist. You need more than "LOOK, MUSLIMS!" to show some sort of link... And you haven't shown us anything but that. Shocking that the GDP fell in the aftermath of a catastrophic explosion that knocked out trade and caused a massive humanitarian problem. Naaaah, it's probably just the Muslims, eh?
joelbluminator 5y ago
1.8 children per Muslim and 1.53 per Christian, wow that is extremely low by almost any standard, especially for the middle east

Overton-Window 5y ago

Further, those same demographic changes are taking place elsewhere too, e.g. take the fertility rates of Native (Christian) and Muslim European populations and project forward a few decades. Lebanon is but a proverbial canary.

joelbluminator 5y ago
There is no European country that is gonna have a Muslim majoriry by 2050, the closest one seems to be Sweden but its estimated to become around 20% Muslim by 2050. A lot is dependent on immigration policy. But sure, problems could arise regardless who holds the majority. I do think Europe is VERY far from having Lebanon level problems but we will see.

jgmasters 5y ago

Was/were the leadership(s) that is blamed for this catastrophe Muslim?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
huitzitziltzin 5y ago
No. The “analysis” above is anti-muslim nonsense. The main roles in the government of Lebanon are split among Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims and Christians. The president is Christian. The prime minister and speaker of parliament are muslim (one Shia and the other Sunni). I am not saying this was a good system - quite obviously it has not worked well. But to blame all of this on Muslims is nonsense. Also important: some features of Lebanese government are invariant to demographic changes bc the government has declined to conduct a new census. For reference: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Lebanon https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Lebanon
- pram 5y ago
  The government of the Republic doesn’t actually govern swathes of the nation, which are essentially under a parallel Shia Muslim government (Hezbollah) Your “analysis” kinda leaves out that salient fact
- 0x737368 5y ago
  I don't agree with the idea that a country being Christian means it'll be successful and it being Muslim meaning it'll be a disaster, but surely you can't just disregard demographic changes as "anti-Muslim nonsense". I too categorically don't agree with blaming it on Muslims, I do however reserve judgement about blaming it on Islam - it could have had an effect or it could not.
  - u801e 5y ago
    I find it curious that many of the comments here are talking about demographic changes and religion while signaling out Muslims and/or Islam as one of the primary causes. There are plenty of other countries in the world that have economic problems where the Muslim population is insignificant.

seibelj 5y ago

Rather than a religious issue, perhaps the problem was that the Lebanese diaspora was incentivized with high interest rates to deposit their foreign currency in local banks, which was systemically looted by corrupt officials which eventually collapsed in money printing? Or that’s the understanding I have gathered from Lebanese commenters observing the shenanigans. > That was until 2016, when banks began offering remarkable interest rates for new deposits of dollars - an officially accepted currency in the dollarised economy - and even more extraordinary rates for Lebanese pound deposits. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-lebanon-crisis-financial-explainer-idUKKBN268223 https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-lebanon-crisis-financial-...

xnyan 5y ago

Islam has grown in a troubled country, but how does that imply there's a casual relationship between Islam and poverty/social instability? This is like arguing the use of umbrellas causes the rain - how do your figures prove which part is the cause, and which part is the effect? Or if it's because of something(s) else entirely besides the rise in Islamic population?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

alexitorg 5y ago

Reading the economist, it's been obvious for several years that Lebanon's economy was going to collapse, despite coming out of the GFC well. Take this article from 2018. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/08/30/lebanons-economy-has-long-been-sluggish-now-a-crisis-looms https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/08/30/... Interest rates of 8-9% on US dollar denominated accounts. A 20%, of GDP, foreign account deficit. It was clear that they were paying out interest from deposits and it was unsustainable.

0x737368 5y ago

I have no expertise on this topic so I can't agree or disagree with this analysis, but I'd like to commend you on speaking your thoughts. Too often I have found HN to downvote a comment that goes against the grain until it's dead - can we not have a civilised discussion around difficult topics?

alexitorg 5y ago

Arab countries (whatever religion), in particular, seem to be mired in corruption. And corruption seems, to me, to be a low trust equilibrium of societies that is hard to get out of. The cycle seems to go: You can't trust authority to help you, So you must rely on your family or patronage to get ahead, In return you become obligated to your own network, If you get authority you misuse your power to favour your own (besides everyone else is doing it), and outsiders can't trust authority to help them. The lack of trust discourages investment. Why invest if someone else will use their power to take the proceeds away. It seems to me the this is the main reason that there still are poor countries in the world. I've heard that there is an afghan saying: "brother before cousin, cousin before clan, clan before country." But the examples are endless: Arab clan/sect networks, Mafia bosses, Roman Patricians, Feudal lords, Chinese Guanxi patronage networks, African tribal networks.

u801e 5y ago

> I realise that these topics are unpopular, but you cannot divorce the economic and social downfall of Lebanon from the demographic changes taking place there. You could run a global regular expression substitution and replace Christian with white, Muslim with black, and Lebanon with the US. It would also work by replacing Muslim with Hispanics or illegals with the other substitutions as mentioned earlier.

pasabagi 5y ago

So when you read that people believed lesbians cause hurricanes, or jews cause the plague, you think 'how could people be so stupid!' but if you add some figures, some magic words ('populations', 'demographics'), I find myself nodding along! Muslims cause economic crises! Truly humbling analysis.

Darmody 5y ago

You forgot the civil war which led to Christians and Jewish people to flee, something very common in the Middle East. There's "peace" until there's no peace and only a group of people is allowed to stay.

oliwarner 5y ago

Your comment is beyond distasteful, it's lazy and racist. You need more than "LOOK, MUSLIMS!" to show some sort of link... And you haven't shown us anything but that. Shocking that the GDP fell in the aftermath of a catastrophic explosion that knocked out trade and caused a massive humanitarian problem. Naaaah, it's probably just the Muslims, eh?

joelbluminator 5y ago

1.8 children per Muslim and 1.53 per Christian, wow that is extremely low by almost any standard, especially for the middle east