4 ms·
it's hard to take the idea of longtermism seriously when it makes a basic mistake of treating its far future (10^58 people living in a computer simulation) as v
by clairity 5y ago
it's hard to take the idea of longtermism seriously when it makes a basic mistake of treating its far future (10^58 people living in a computer simulation) as virtually certain. it has no concept of stochastically discounting this future among infinitely many into the present, let alone today's value of all those potential future beings(?), to arrive at a reasonable weighting on present decisions.
with that said, i do really dislike the focus on "climate change" as mediopolitically-mediated existential risk, as it's too abstract and it's potentially devastating effects also poorly discounted into the present. instead, let's rather focus more on pollution, especially of the air, ground, and water, which are palpable and immediate threats to lives, solutions to which will also intersect with the longer term problems implicated by climate change. pollution is a real risk today and into every far future, which is why it's worth pursuing now, rather than a single strand of future possibility.
- ben_w 5y agoI blogged about the need for discounting the future a while ago: https://kitsunesoftware.wordpress.com/2020/01/08/morality-thy-discount-is-hyperbolic/ https://kitsunesoftware.wordpress.com/2020/01/08/morality-th... I guess I should get more active on some Rationality forums; something like 80-90% of those who read my blog only do so because (and when) I link to it from here. Plus I bet a significant fraction of what I write is something someone else has already come up with and I just don’t know about yet.
- wizzwizz4 5y agoYou should add your voice to https://lesswrong.com https://lesswrong.com, even if it's just linking your blog posts there. That community is too insular, and needs more independent voices.
- jablongo 5y agoI agree - the focus on climate change en lieu of more tangible (and easily modeled) issues like pollution and loss of habitat was a societal misstep since both problems have similar solutions: clean energy and and preservation of forests.