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Automation is progressing faster than new 'types' of jobs are created. In many sectors they'll be poised to be oversaturated with workers. Owners are happy to r

Automation is progressing faster than new 'types' of jobs are created. In many sectors they'll be poised to be oversaturated with workers. Owners are happy to remove the human element wherever reasonably possible.

spothedog1 5y ago
Except the US has a large labor shortage that predates covid in construction, agriculture, domestic work, scientists, engineers and more. If automation comes then great but the basic principals of more people in an economy means more demand for goods and services still applies.
- slothtrop 5y ago
  Pay more and the labor shortage will disappear. Every industry exploiting temporary visas or undocumented workers claims there's a shortage.
- idiotsecant 5y ago
  There is no labor shortage. When wages increase in all those areas those labor 'shortages' mysteriously end.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Except the US has a large labor shortage No, it has less labor supplied at current prices than purchasers would prefer. Market clearing quantity at current prices being less than buyers would prefer is...the normal case of a market economy. It's only a shortage if buyers paying more wouldn't increase market clearing quantity, because of some constraint besides “you haven't offered enough money to convince more people to sell their labor”.
  - rossjudson 5y ago
    I agree with you. The critical question here is, on a broad scale, whether the competitiveness of the American economy depends on lack of choice for low-wage workers. Example: The health insurance system reduces choice for workers, who are legitimately terrified of losing healthcare.
  - spothedog1 5y ago
    The US def has a labor shortage if it wants to stay globally competitive in some sectors. Americans will either buy strawberries from immigrants on agricultural visas, they will buy strawberries overseas or they won’t buy strawberries. There is no scenario where they buy strawberries picked by people making $30/hr. The US tech sector can pay every software engineer 300k starting salary but at some point you’re completely hobbling the ability for new businesses to start and grow. US has been letting in millions of IT immigrants for decades and it’s technology salaries are highest in the world. Simply put the demand created by these immigrants for more software services outstrips the increase in supply of engineers. They also start a ton of new companies so you have agglomeration effects of having more people. Sure US companies can and should pay more but there is certainly a point where labor is expensive enough to make new growth prohibitive. The USA has much more abundant cheap labor than Europe which is why we have all the new innovative companies starting and not there. When these companies grow they produce lots of high skilled jobs as well. Think of Uber. Lots of drivers are low skilled immigrants, but the ability for a new company to have so many to drive for them spurred and entire new industry with thousands high paying tech jobs as well. Low skilled immigration is a win win win for the USA. Americans get cheaper goods and services, a fast growing dynamic economy and hard working tax paying citizens to grow the nation and make it richer. They create huge demand for goods and services growing the US economy and market size. Low skilled immigrants may not be working the most glamorous jobs but they come to the US voluntarily knowing their children will vastly out earn them and be American. They prefer it to the situation that they left behind. These people are not financial liabilities to the USA. None of this is an argument against higher pay, workers rights, safety standards. Uber drivers and strawberry pickers should be protected with the full force of the US government from abuse, and we should have safety nets in place to make sure they’re not destitute. Those should all be sought after. But increasing low skilled immigration makes the USA much richer overall and should be drastically increased.
    - slothtrop 5y ago
      Since you mentioned strawberries, Driscolls, the U.S. berry giant, a) actually yields most of its strawberries from Mexico, and b) is poised to increase automation even further. Have a look at the careers page here and take note of what they're seeking in the U.S. proper - https://www.driscolls.com/about/careers https://www.driscolls.com/about/careers > There is no scenario where they buy strawberries picked by people making $30/hr. You're presenting a false dichotomy. Not only would people would pick strawberries in the U.S. season for less than that (assuming they would seek unskilled labor), consumers are accustomed to paying premium for "local" produce when in season. > The US tech sector can pay every software engineer 300k starting salary but at some point you’re completely hobbling the ability for new businesses to start and grow. There are always young engineers starting out desperate to get a job who would kill for the opportunity to work at a startup. > the demand created by these immigrants for more software services outstrips the increase in supply of engineers. FANG serves a global market, and the notion that there's some sort of lack of software services that consumers want is ludicrous. In the first place these are quickly filled in by app creators capitalizing on opportunity, in the 2nd, people generally don't know what they want when it comes to as-of-yet-invented software, they're told what they want by large companies. > Americans get cheaper goods and services, They already get that from imports. > a fast growing dynamic economy Benefiting the rich overwhelmingly. Notwithstanding skill, because immigration isn't just about low-skilled workers (Canada doesn't prioritize it for instance), high supply of workers is lobbied for on the part of companies in order to suppress wages. That is the only reason.
  - renewiltord 5y ago
    > It's only a shortage if buyers paying more wouldn't increase market clearing quantity, because of some constraint besides “you haven't offered enough money to convince more people to sell their labor”. Yes, that constraint is immigration law.
rat87 5y ago
Automation isn't an issue (except for wealth gap). Automation opens up new jobs
- slothtrop 5y ago
  The point not being that automation is an issue, but that a slowly shrinking workforce is not one either.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

spothedog1 5y ago

Except the US has a large labor shortage that predates covid in construction, agriculture, domestic work, scientists, engineers and more. If automation comes then great but the basic principals of more people in an economy means more demand for goods and services still applies.

slothtrop 5y ago
Pay more and the labor shortage will disappear. Every industry exploiting temporary visas or undocumented workers claims there's a shortage.
idiotsecant 5y ago
There is no labor shortage. When wages increase in all those areas those labor 'shortages' mysteriously end.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> Except the US has a large labor shortage No, it has less labor supplied at current prices than purchasers would prefer. Market clearing quantity at current prices being less than buyers would prefer is...the normal case of a market economy. It's only a shortage if buyers paying more wouldn't increase market clearing quantity, because of some constraint besides “you haven't offered enough money to convince more people to sell their labor”.
- rossjudson 5y ago
  I agree with you. The critical question here is, on a broad scale, whether the competitiveness of the American economy depends on lack of choice for low-wage workers. Example: The health insurance system reduces choice for workers, who are legitimately terrified of losing healthcare.
- spothedog1 5y ago
  The US def has a labor shortage if it wants to stay globally competitive in some sectors. Americans will either buy strawberries from immigrants on agricultural visas, they will buy strawberries overseas or they won’t buy strawberries. There is no scenario where they buy strawberries picked by people making $30/hr. The US tech sector can pay every software engineer 300k starting salary but at some point you’re completely hobbling the ability for new businesses to start and grow. US has been letting in millions of IT immigrants for decades and it’s technology salaries are highest in the world. Simply put the demand created by these immigrants for more software services outstrips the increase in supply of engineers. They also start a ton of new companies so you have agglomeration effects of having more people. Sure US companies can and should pay more but there is certainly a point where labor is expensive enough to make new growth prohibitive. The USA has much more abundant cheap labor than Europe which is why we have all the new innovative companies starting and not there. When these companies grow they produce lots of high skilled jobs as well. Think of Uber. Lots of drivers are low skilled immigrants, but the ability for a new company to have so many to drive for them spurred and entire new industry with thousands high paying tech jobs as well. Low skilled immigration is a win win win for the USA. Americans get cheaper goods and services, a fast growing dynamic economy and hard working tax paying citizens to grow the nation and make it richer. They create huge demand for goods and services growing the US economy and market size. Low skilled immigrants may not be working the most glamorous jobs but they come to the US voluntarily knowing their children will vastly out earn them and be American. They prefer it to the situation that they left behind. These people are not financial liabilities to the USA. None of this is an argument against higher pay, workers rights, safety standards. Uber drivers and strawberry pickers should be protected with the full force of the US government from abuse, and we should have safety nets in place to make sure they’re not destitute. Those should all be sought after. But increasing low skilled immigration makes the USA much richer overall and should be drastically increased.
  - slothtrop 5y ago
    Since you mentioned strawberries, Driscolls, the U.S. berry giant, a) actually yields most of its strawberries from Mexico, and b) is poised to increase automation even further. Have a look at the careers page here and take note of what they're seeking in the U.S. proper - https://www.driscolls.com/about/careers https://www.driscolls.com/about/careers > There is no scenario where they buy strawberries picked by people making $30/hr. You're presenting a false dichotomy. Not only would people would pick strawberries in the U.S. season for less than that (assuming they would seek unskilled labor), consumers are accustomed to paying premium for "local" produce when in season. > The US tech sector can pay every software engineer 300k starting salary but at some point you’re completely hobbling the ability for new businesses to start and grow. There are always young engineers starting out desperate to get a job who would kill for the opportunity to work at a startup. > the demand created by these immigrants for more software services outstrips the increase in supply of engineers. FANG serves a global market, and the notion that there's some sort of lack of software services that consumers want is ludicrous. In the first place these are quickly filled in by app creators capitalizing on opportunity, in the 2nd, people generally don't know what they want when it comes to as-of-yet-invented software, they're told what they want by large companies. > Americans get cheaper goods and services, They already get that from imports. > a fast growing dynamic economy Benefiting the rich overwhelmingly. Notwithstanding skill, because immigration isn't just about low-skilled workers (Canada doesn't prioritize it for instance), high supply of workers is lobbied for on the part of companies in order to suppress wages. That is the only reason.
- renewiltord 5y ago
  > It's only a shortage if buyers paying more wouldn't increase market clearing quantity, because of some constraint besides “you haven't offered enough money to convince more people to sell their labor”. Yes, that constraint is immigration law.

rat87 5y ago

Automation isn't an issue (except for wealth gap). Automation opens up new jobs

slothtrop 5y ago
The point not being that automation is an issue, but that a slowly shrinking workforce is not one either.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]