6 ms·

There's trying and then there's trying. Japan is doing the first kind, where you put some effort in, but it's kind of limp. The other kind of trying is when yo

There's trying and then there's trying. Japan is doing the first kind, where you put some effort in, but it's kind of limp. The other kind of trying is when you put vigorous effort into making it easier to have children. Dramatically ramp up childcare support. Strongly enforce anti-discrimination laws, particularly in the case of discrimination against mothers. Forbid employers from requiring more than 40h of work per week under certain (very high) compensation thresholds. Provide direct payments to parents that substantially offset the costs of additional children. Align housing policy with the need for larger dwellings for larger families, but still with decent commutes. Etc.

novok 5y ago
I think the real changes needed are also politically unpopular with a bunch of old people and other politically powerful classes. Making children more viable for the young will probably mean making real estate not a good investment for one example, making house spouse / the homer simpson lifestyle more viable, thus reducing the labor force and increasing the cost of labor and so on. For now, it's easier to kick the can down the road.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
  This is right too. Although on some level one suspects parts of this problem are self correcting over a longer timescale. If the predicted population implosions begin to manifest, there will also be a corresponding decrease in the demand for housing, and a corresponding increase in wages paid to labor as it becomes more scarce. These trends will make having children easier. I know it's hard to picture that world but many times it has come to pass that we have arrived after twenty years at a world that would have been hard to predict.
iammisc 5y ago
> Dramatically ramp up childcare support. Strongly enforce anti-discrimination laws, particularly in the case of discrimination against mothers. Forbid employers from requiring more than 40h of work per week under certain (very high) compensation thresholds. Provide direct payments to parents that substantially offset the costs of additional children. Align housing policy with the need for larger dwellings for larger families, but still with decent commutes. Etc. Where has this been shown to work? By and large, the nations with more childcare support, more protections for pregnant women, etc have lower birthrates than those that don't. For example, if we look here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d..., then America seems to be the developed country with the highest birth rate despite having little of the social policies you mention. In fact, based on that chart, it would seem the opposite is true. The less social safety net, the more kids. This makes intuitive sense since if government isn't taking care of you, you'll need children to.
- lotsofpulp 5y ago
  I think it mostly has to do with access to convenient birth control, like IUDs and birth control pills. Give poor women education and access to those, and even poorer countries will see similar declines in birth rate. I think humanity’s growth was dependent on women not having a say in the matter. All the situations I see where women have gained the ability to easily choose whether or not to have kids lead to lower birth rates.
  - tuatoru 5y ago
    I remember seeing a study which followed the spread of TV across Brazil and the decline in birth rate. It was the soaps wot dun it. Seeing new role models who had interesting lives, and especially learning that it was possible to withstand pressure from grandparents to have children seemed to be more important than mere availability of contraceptives or education. IIRC there was a similar effect in Bangladesh, but it was harder to track since TV rolled out more quickly there.
    - jsnell 5y ago
      For anyone curious, this seems to be the study: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.4.4.1 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.4.4.1
      - tuatoru 5y ago
        Yes, that was it. Thanks! I recall reading about it on an economics blog, which mentioned Bangladesh also. That (Bangladesh) must have been a different study.
  - xyzzy123 5y ago
    Agree. One wrinkle is the gap between how many children women say they want when surveyed (about 2.5 in most western countries) and how many they end up having on average (fewer). It could be that the surveys are asking the wrong questions, or that for some people they just never get the circumstances they want. As far as I know that gap has never been conclusively explained. Hypotheses abound, of course.

novok 5y ago

I think the real changes needed are also politically unpopular with a bunch of old people and other politically powerful classes. Making children more viable for the young will probably mean making real estate not a good investment for one example, making house spouse / the homer simpson lifestyle more viable, thus reducing the labor force and increasing the cost of labor and so on. For now, it's easier to kick the can down the road.

asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
This is right too. Although on some level one suspects parts of this problem are self correcting over a longer timescale. If the predicted population implosions begin to manifest, there will also be a corresponding decrease in the demand for housing, and a corresponding increase in wages paid to labor as it becomes more scarce. These trends will make having children easier. I know it's hard to picture that world but many times it has come to pass that we have arrived after twenty years at a world that would have been hard to predict.

iammisc 5y ago

> Dramatically ramp up childcare support. Strongly enforce anti-discrimination laws, particularly in the case of discrimination against mothers. Forbid employers from requiring more than 40h of work per week under certain (very high) compensation thresholds. Provide direct payments to parents that substantially offset the costs of additional children. Align housing policy with the need for larger dwellings for larger families, but still with decent commutes. Etc. Where has this been shown to work? By and large, the nations with more childcare support, more protections for pregnant women, etc have lower birthrates than those that don't. For example, if we look here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d..., then America seems to be the developed country with the highest birth rate despite having little of the social policies you mention. In fact, based on that chart, it would seem the opposite is true. The less social safety net, the more kids. This makes intuitive sense since if government isn't taking care of you, you'll need children to.

lotsofpulp 5y ago
I think it mostly has to do with access to convenient birth control, like IUDs and birth control pills. Give poor women education and access to those, and even poorer countries will see similar declines in birth rate. I think humanity’s growth was dependent on women not having a say in the matter. All the situations I see where women have gained the ability to easily choose whether or not to have kids lead to lower birth rates.
- tuatoru 5y ago
  I remember seeing a study which followed the spread of TV across Brazil and the decline in birth rate. It was the soaps wot dun it. Seeing new role models who had interesting lives, and especially learning that it was possible to withstand pressure from grandparents to have children seemed to be more important than mere availability of contraceptives or education. IIRC there was a similar effect in Bangladesh, but it was harder to track since TV rolled out more quickly there.
  - jsnell 5y ago
    For anyone curious, this seems to be the study: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.4.4.1 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.4.4.1
    - tuatoru 5y ago
      Yes, that was it. Thanks! I recall reading about it on an economics blog, which mentioned Bangladesh also. That (Bangladesh) must have been a different study.
- xyzzy123 5y ago
  Agree. One wrinkle is the gap between how many children women say they want when surveyed (about 2.5 in most western countries) and how many they end up having on average (fewer). It could be that the surveys are asking the wrong questions, or that for some people they just never get the circumstances they want. As far as I know that gap has never been conclusively explained. Hypotheses abound, of course.