5 ms·

The average price of an apartment in Seoul is hitting $1M and the avg gdp per capita is around $38k.I am afraid a lot of that wealth is just real estate market

The average price of an apartment in Seoul is hitting $1M and the avg gdp per capita is around $38k.I am afraid a lot of that wealth is just real estate market speculation that might burst when the supply outstrips demand in 50 years.

kijin 5y ago
I doubt that there will be a major, irrecoverable housing crash in South Korea within the lifetime of anyone who grew up believing that their children will support them later on. In the meantime, retirees who own nothing but an expensive apartment can reverse-mortgage their homes for a stable source of income. The bank, not their children, will inherit the property. Two reasons why I don't think there will be a supply/demand mismatch: 1) Housing doesn't simply stay there once it has been built. Koreans seem very eager to tear down "old" buildings (anything more than 30 years old), so it's going to be fairly easy to control supply if demand goes down. 2) The number of people per household is steeply declining. Even if the population drops to half of the current level, if there are only half as many people per household, the total number of housing units needed will be largely the same. Smaller units will become more popular, though.
- mathverse 5y ago
  I hope you are right for the sake of both of us.
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Why are you so confident supply will every outstrip demand? The government could just mandate old buildings get destroyed and turned into parks. Remember, >55% of people are homeowners - they'll vote for anything that will protect the value of their homes - especially if non-homeowners pay for it entirely.
- refurb 5y ago
  Whose building do they tear down and turn the value to $0? That makes no sense.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
    First they can update codes so that nothing can be rebuilt in a significant portion of the city. Then they can condemn buildings that aren't up-to code after a certain point. Then they can order the buildings torn down after a longer point. Then they can make people happy by turning abandoned buildings into parks. Governments can always find ways to limit the supply of housing. They've been doing it fabulously in most of the West for the last 30 years.

kijin 5y ago

I doubt that there will be a major, irrecoverable housing crash in South Korea within the lifetime of anyone who grew up believing that their children will support them later on. In the meantime, retirees who own nothing but an expensive apartment can reverse-mortgage their homes for a stable source of income. The bank, not their children, will inherit the property. Two reasons why I don't think there will be a supply/demand mismatch: 1) Housing doesn't simply stay there once it has been built. Koreans seem very eager to tear down "old" buildings (anything more than 30 years old), so it's going to be fairly easy to control supply if demand goes down. 2) The number of people per household is steeply declining. Even if the population drops to half of the current level, if there are only half as many people per household, the total number of housing units needed will be largely the same. Smaller units will become more popular, though.

mathverse 5y ago
I hope you are right for the sake of both of us.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

Why are you so confident supply will every outstrip demand? The government could just mandate old buildings get destroyed and turned into parks. Remember, >55% of people are homeowners - they'll vote for anything that will protect the value of their homes - especially if non-homeowners pay for it entirely.

refurb 5y ago
Whose building do they tear down and turn the value to $0? That makes no sense.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  First they can update codes so that nothing can be rebuilt in a significant portion of the city. Then they can condemn buildings that aren't up-to code after a certain point. Then they can order the buildings torn down after a longer point. Then they can make people happy by turning abandoned buildings into parks. Governments can always find ways to limit the supply of housing. They've been doing it fabulously in most of the West for the last 30 years.