4 ms·
An interesting read is https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-05.pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-05.pdf What's often mis
by flerovium 5y ago
An interesting read is https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-05.pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-05.pdf
What's often missed in this analysis is population. Interest rates are tightly coupled to population growth and even with negative interest rates, a country needs to see Japan-scale population decline to risk Japanification.
The virus has accelerated EU population decline and exacerbated the North/South fertility divide. It's natural to think that as the long-term outlook for the virus worsens (over the next several years), this would have a non-negligible effect on interest rates. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-births-analysis/analysis-covid-19-worsens-europes-inequalities-in-yet-another-way-the-fertility-gap-idUSKBN28B3XA https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-bir...
- frockington1 5y agoWhy is the virus going to worsen? Are Europeans more resistant to the vaccine? Death rates in America are almost entirely the unvaccinated by now
- rossdavidh 5y agoActually, total deaths from all causes (among vaccinated and unvaccinated taken together) have been back to near-normal levels since March. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
- hnarn 5y agoThe claim was "death rates in America are almost entirely the unvaccinated by now", which is correct. And cases are going up. Excess mortality, in the past few months no less, is completely irrelevant, not only in scope of time but also to the statement being made.