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Shouldn’t we see this reflected in hospital admissions?

by quenix 5y ago

lucb1e 5y ago
Hospital admissions usually are a bit delayed, but yes, presumably people won't be holding off on being admitted to the hospital the way they would hold off on getting tested if GP is right. (Personally I'm not sure how many more people will now, as compared to a few weeks ago, decide that testing is more of a nuisance than helpful for protecting your loved ones, but then I'm not from the UK so what do I know.)
celsoazevedo 5y ago
Looking at the official data[0], the number of daily hospital admissions is still increasing: https://i.imgur.com/XkbImVg.png https://i.imgur.com/XkbImVg.png But hospital admissions usually lag behind the number of infections. If in a week or two admissions are still going up while the number of new infections drops, then this theory may be correct. [0] https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
tialaramex 5y ago
They're a lagging indicator, as are deaths. So, eventually. If you stare at the government's site https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ hospital admissions seem to have levelled off, and maybe deaths are levelling off but it's too early to be sure. People get infected (and begin testing positive) first, then some of them get sick (a few more will seek a test and be positive) and then some of those seek hospital admission or call for advice and the advice for their symptoms is "get to hospital" and almost all of the people who eventually die get admitted to hospital first, in some cases dying after weeks of attempted care. I think there's room for some pessimism without going so far as your parent poster, cases may be down but not as much as it seems. Lots of people seem to have gone off around the country on holiday which seems crazy to me, but clearly didn't make things much worse. People can choose not to seek a test while they're alive, but corpses have no say in what the post mortem data says.

Shouldn’t we see this reflected in hospital admissions?

by quenix 5y ago

Shouldn’t we see this reflected in hospital admissions?

Hospital admissions usually are a bit delayed, but yes, presumably people won't be holding off on being admitted to the hospital the way they would hold off on getting tested if GP is right. (Personally I'm not sure how many more people will now, as compared to a few weeks ago, decide that testing is more of a nuisance than helpful for protecting your loved ones, but then I'm not from the UK so what do I know.)

celsoazevedo 5y ago

Looking at the official data[0], the number of daily hospital admissions is still increasing: https://i.imgur.com/XkbImVg.png https://i.imgur.com/XkbImVg.png But hospital admissions usually lag behind the number of infections. If in a week or two admissions are still going up while the number of new infections drops, then this theory may be correct. [0] https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

tialaramex 5y ago

They're a lagging indicator, as are deaths. So, eventually. If you stare at the government's site https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ hospital admissions seem to have levelled off, and maybe deaths are levelling off but it's too early to be sure. People get infected (and begin testing positive) first, then some of them get sick (a few more will seek a test and be positive) and then some of those seek hospital admission or call for advice and the advice for their symptoms is "get to hospital" and almost all of the people who eventually die get admitted to hospital first, in some cases dying after weeks of attempted care. I think there's room for some pessimism without going so far as your parent poster, cases may be down but not as much as it seems. Lots of people seem to have gone off around the country on holiday which seems crazy to me, but clearly didn't make things much worse. People can choose not to seek a test while they're alive, but corpses have no say in what the post mortem data says.