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Our current cost per tonne is in the same order of magnitude when including the carbon value from the European ETS. The key success criteria for making large pl

Our current cost per tonne is in the same order of magnitude when including the carbon value from the European ETS. The key success criteria for making large plants profitable will be connecting to cheap electricity at <$50/MWh we're in the black

nobodyknowsyoda 5y ago
What is the current price of carbon credits in the ETS? I am from the USA / am dumb, so don’t know how to find it Also good read for everyone: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Energy/Introducing-the-Green-Premiums https://www.gatesnotes.com/Energy/Introducing-the-Green-Prem...
- marcuslima 5y ago
  Haha gotcha, European ETS is on a bit of a tear at the minute. Has risen to ~$70/tonne CO2
- lifekaizen 5y ago
  The World Bank has a great resource here which lists out pricing for emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon tax by country.[0] (Map & Data > Price > Type of Instrument). Highest carbon taxes are $100+ / ton (Sweden, Switzerland, Lichenstein), high initial value for trade is about $50 (EU, Switzerland). We are a bit behind in the US in credits or taxes, we are now treating the social cost at $51, but not using that for tax or trade policy.[1] There's one more number that is useful to get a numerical sense of the costs: $258 / ton, an estimate of the actual cost to society. [2] [0] https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cost-of-carbon-pollution-pegged-at-51-a-ton/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cost-of-carbon-po... [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w
  - marcuslima 5y ago
    That estimate of cost to society should tell us something when contrasted with the actual prices being levied right now. Hopefully we'll get closer to that number eventually! Hopefully the US does this: https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/05/06/proposed-45q-tax-credit-reform-boost-carbon-capture-projects/ https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/05/06/proposed-45q-ta...
go_elmo 5y ago
How "flexible" is the production? I mean during peak-sunny hours the price of electricity is well below that mark in some regions of europe? And would it e.g. make sense to scale up in a very sunny region & produce your own power? Last question: Do you need electrical power or heat? If latter, would a more efficient thermo-solar power plant make sense? Best of Luck! :)
- f6v 5y ago
  > And would it e.g. make sense to scale up in a very sunny region & produce your own power? It’s an interesting point. The most sunny region might be not the target market. Then you need to factor in the CO2 emissions arising from the transport to consumers.
  - go_elmo 5y ago
    True and interesting point - but if you're able to produce as cheaply to "push out" dirty competitors and still have a net saving when including transport, it would still make sense I suppose. Also, there are always relatively close sun intensive regions near major customers: mongolia / tibet china, north africa europe & middle east, the US has its own deserts... also, transport is a minor fraction compared to the net saving
    - marcuslima 5y ago
      Absolutely, CO2 emissions from transport isn't much of an issue compared with the saving. Hopefully someone like Remora will crack that problem anyhow. We'll most likely need to build our plants closer to where the market is though, to limit the financial cost of transportation
  - Jolter 5y ago
    This kind of scale would require establishing factories all over the world. Every feasible region in every developed country.
    - marcuslima 5y ago
rout39574 5y ago
What electricity sources have you identified as acceptable for this? Proximity of e.g. hydro to an ocean seems like a small set of sites. :) A naive glance suggests that solar capacity factor of 25% is going to put that particular source out of your budget.
- uranium 5y ago
  +1 Can you handle intermittency in your power, or do you need to run continuously? What capacity factor do you assume in your cost model?
  - marcuslima 5y ago
    That's actually the trickiest part of the engineering, but we've managed to make it directly compatible with the an intermittent energy source like solar and wind
- LeifCarrotson 5y ago
  One fortunate aspect of electricity is that it's easy and efficient - on the order of 2-6% losses due to transmission for hundreds of miles - to transport. Whether your country has invested in renewable sources like hydro plants and associated high-voltage, long-distance transmission lines is what matters. The geography of whether hydro plant is near the coast or not is of less importance than whether it exists or not!
- twic 5y ago
  There's quite a lot of wind power available at sea.
  - marcuslima 5y ago
    Convenient that ;)
uranium 5y ago
Will you be able to complete on cost without carbon credits, at scale?
- marcuslima 5y ago
  We're competitive at scale. This does require us to hit our CAPEX targets and to capitalize on cheap renewable sources of electricity that are becoming prevalent
nightshift1 5y ago
You should come to Quebec (Canada). The electricity is cheap and 99% from renewables. https://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/ https://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/
rossjudson 5y ago
Make crypto mining illegal. Boom! Do something useful with the energy instead, like cut carbon dioxide.
galacticdessert 5y ago
Cheap green electricity at less than 50 $/MWh should not be a problem, most PPAs are already getting signed at costs substantially lower than that.

nobodyknowsyoda 5y ago

What is the current price of carbon credits in the ETS? I am from the USA / am dumb, so don’t know how to find it Also good read for everyone: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Energy/Introducing-the-Green-Premiums https://www.gatesnotes.com/Energy/Introducing-the-Green-Prem...

marcuslima 5y ago
Haha gotcha, European ETS is on a bit of a tear at the minute. Has risen to ~$70/tonne CO2
lifekaizen 5y ago
The World Bank has a great resource here which lists out pricing for emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon tax by country.[0] (Map & Data > Price > Type of Instrument). Highest carbon taxes are $100+ / ton (Sweden, Switzerland, Lichenstein), high initial value for trade is about $50 (EU, Switzerland). We are a bit behind in the US in credits or taxes, we are now treating the social cost at $51, but not using that for tax or trade policy.[1] There's one more number that is useful to get a numerical sense of the costs: $258 / ton, an estimate of the actual cost to society. [2] [0] https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cost-of-carbon-pollution-pegged-at-51-a-ton/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cost-of-carbon-po... [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w
- marcuslima 5y ago
  That estimate of cost to society should tell us something when contrasted with the actual prices being levied right now. Hopefully we'll get closer to that number eventually! Hopefully the US does this: https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/05/06/proposed-45q-tax-credit-reform-boost-carbon-capture-projects/ https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/05/06/proposed-45q-ta...

go_elmo 5y ago

How "flexible" is the production? I mean during peak-sunny hours the price of electricity is well below that mark in some regions of europe? And would it e.g. make sense to scale up in a very sunny region & produce your own power? Last question: Do you need electrical power or heat? If latter, would a more efficient thermo-solar power plant make sense? Best of Luck! :)

f6v 5y ago
> And would it e.g. make sense to scale up in a very sunny region & produce your own power? It’s an interesting point. The most sunny region might be not the target market. Then you need to factor in the CO2 emissions arising from the transport to consumers.
- go_elmo 5y ago
  True and interesting point - but if you're able to produce as cheaply to "push out" dirty competitors and still have a net saving when including transport, it would still make sense I suppose. Also, there are always relatively close sun intensive regions near major customers: mongolia / tibet china, north africa europe & middle east, the US has its own deserts... also, transport is a minor fraction compared to the net saving
  - marcuslima 5y ago
    Absolutely, CO2 emissions from transport isn't much of an issue compared with the saving. Hopefully someone like Remora will crack that problem anyhow. We'll most likely need to build our plants closer to where the market is though, to limit the financial cost of transportation
- Jolter 5y ago
  This kind of scale would require establishing factories all over the world. Every feasible region in every developed country.
  - marcuslima 5y ago

rout39574 5y ago

What electricity sources have you identified as acceptable for this? Proximity of e.g. hydro to an ocean seems like a small set of sites. :) A naive glance suggests that solar capacity factor of 25% is going to put that particular source out of your budget.

uranium 5y ago
+1 Can you handle intermittency in your power, or do you need to run continuously? What capacity factor do you assume in your cost model?
- marcuslima 5y ago
  That's actually the trickiest part of the engineering, but we've managed to make it directly compatible with the an intermittent energy source like solar and wind
LeifCarrotson 5y ago
One fortunate aspect of electricity is that it's easy and efficient - on the order of 2-6% losses due to transmission for hundreds of miles - to transport. Whether your country has invested in renewable sources like hydro plants and associated high-voltage, long-distance transmission lines is what matters. The geography of whether hydro plant is near the coast or not is of less importance than whether it exists or not!
twic 5y ago
There's quite a lot of wind power available at sea.
- marcuslima 5y ago
  Convenient that ;)

uranium 5y ago

Will you be able to complete on cost without carbon credits, at scale?

marcuslima 5y ago
We're competitive at scale. This does require us to hit our CAPEX targets and to capitalize on cheap renewable sources of electricity that are becoming prevalent

nightshift1 5y ago

You should come to Quebec (Canada). The electricity is cheap and 99% from renewables. https://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/ https://www.hydroquebec.com/business/customer-space/rates/

rossjudson 5y ago

Make crypto mining illegal. Boom! Do something useful with the energy instead, like cut carbon dioxide.

galacticdessert 5y ago

Cheap green electricity at less than 50 $/MWh should not be a problem, most PPAs are already getting signed at costs substantially lower than that.