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First off, no one said crime is not a problem, they're saying it's not a new problem ramping up. So let's fix that bit of putting words in someone's mouth and s

First off, no one said crime is not a problem, they're saying it's not a new problem ramping up. So let's fix that bit of putting words in someone's mouth and see why doesn't the logic flow the other way? Just because crime is increasing doesn’t mean it’s a new problem. We have no benchmark to compare 2019, 2020 and 2021 against and it may be dipping but 2020 likely saw a spike in crime so going down from there isn’t saying much. Seems pretty reasonable right?

x0x0 5y ago
There are charts over time available here https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/A-violent-year-Bay-Area-murders-spiked-36-in-15857202.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/A-violent-year-Bay...
- BoorishBears 5y ago
  The entire point is 2020 was a known anomaly (because of the tiny globe changing pandemic) Hence why their quote is about downward trends in 2021 > The San Francisco Police Department is actually seeing a dip in crime in 2021, part of a larger overall downward trend. Property crimes are down nearly 8 percent so far in 2021, and larceny theft — the category of crime that includes shoplifting — is down 14.4 percent. It's too early to start screaming doom and gloom about crime taking over
  - x0x0 5y ago
    Ah, I was just sharing the data but yeah -- we're trending towards returning to the hellscape that was 2016. We're all gonna die! (Despite the fact that, well, we all lived through 2016...)
edgyquant 5y ago
The backwards logic doesn’t work because my assumption is that all crime is a problem.
- BoorishBears 5y ago
  Aren't quants supposed to be good at reading? > *no one said crime is not a problem*, they're saying it's not *a new problem ramping up*