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Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
by mjw1007 5y ago
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001174/S1304_LSHTM_Updated_roadmap_assessment_prior_to_delayed_step_4.2__7_July_2021__1_.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.
- jtbayly 5y agohttps://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=2021-04-12..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions... Peak was several days ago.
- mjw1007 5y agoIt's bit early to be sure yet (the UK fall in cases has slowed greatly in the last week), but if that turns out to be true "the models predicted that cases would peak around that time" would still be OK for the purposes of this thread: the point is that it's unsurprising that cases began to fall within a week or two of "freedom day".