3 ms·

More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been

More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been scheduled for later.

jtbayly 5y ago
Models predicted this? Link, please. From this article: > “Something strange is happening in Britain,” the Washington Post declared this week. “COVID cases are plummeting instead of soaring.” A few weeks ago, when the country’s new daily-case total was around 60,000, the prominent British epidemiologist and government adviser Neil Ferguson declared that a rise to 100,000 a day was inevitable, and that 200,000 a day was possible. The country is now at 27,000 and falling.
- mjw1007 5y ago
  Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001174/S1304_LSHTM_Updated_roadmap_assessment_prior_to_delayed_step_4.2__7_July_2021__1_.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.
  - jtbayly 5y ago
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=2021-04-12..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions... Peak was several days ago.
    - mjw1007 5y ago
      It's bit early to be sure yet (the UK fall in cases has slowed greatly in the last week), but if that turns out to be true "the models predicted that cases would peak around that time" would still be OK for the purposes of this thread: the point is that it's unsurprising that cases began to fall within a week or two of "freedom day".
SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
That's not how it happened: the date was set well in advance, and the drop at that time was not predicted.

More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been scheduled for later.

jtbayly 5y ago

Models predicted this? Link, please. From this article: > “Something strange is happening in Britain,” the Washington Post declared this week. “COVID cases are plummeting instead of soaring.” A few weeks ago, when the country’s new daily-case total was around 60,000, the prominent British epidemiologist and government adviser Neil Ferguson declared that a rise to 100,000 a day was inevitable, and that 200,000 a day was possible. The country is now at 27,000 and falling.

mjw1007 5y ago
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001174/S1304_LSHTM_Updated_roadmap_assessment_prior_to_delayed_step_4.2__7_July_2021__1_.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.
- jtbayly 5y ago
  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=2021-04-12..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions... Peak was several days ago.
  - mjw1007 5y ago
    It's bit early to be sure yet (the UK fall in cases has slowed greatly in the last week), but if that turns out to be true "the models predicted that cases would peak around that time" would still be OK for the purposes of this thread: the point is that it's unsurprising that cases began to fall within a week or two of "freedom day".

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago

That's not how it happened: the date was set well in advance, and the drop at that time was not predicted.