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I'm sorry, but this is a really bad take. The premise of the argument, namely that Apple does (or attempts to do) everything, and does not leverage the industry

I'm sorry, but this is a really bad take. The premise of the argument, namely that Apple does (or attempts to do) everything, and does not leverage the industry to its advantage, does not stand up to scrutiny. Apple relies heavily on a modularised supply chain. It designs its own chips, true, but relies on TSMC and Samsung to fab them. It designs its own camera system, yes, but buys the crucial components (the sensors) from Sony. It designs its own screens, but uses Samsung technology and production capability to do so. It runs its cloud services on top of AWS and MS Azure. And famously of course, they outsource production of almost all their devices to Foxconn.

saurik 5y ago
Apple carefully selects all of this and makes it work; the "take", as it were, wasn't precisely that Apple does everything (and so I feel like you critically misunderstood it), but that Apple controls everything: any extension of the ecosystem doesn't just block on Apple... it nigh unto must be initiated by Apple.
tucosan 5y ago
This. Plus, their dependence on Chinas goodwill makes them vulnerable. China commands significant power over Apples manufacturing capabilities. Just take a look at Apples supplier list ^1 This is the opposite of antifragile. Tencent, Pinduoduo, Alibaba are prime examples of how much influence the Chinese government is willing to exercise over companies in case it finds them to not be aligned with it's own interests. The Chinese government effectively has access to the private iCloud keys for Apples Chinese users. From an investors perspective I'm a bit bearish on AAPL. ^1: https://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/pdf/Apple-Supplier-List.pdf https://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/pdf/Apple-Supp...
stjohnswarts 5y ago
TSMC isn't going anywhere and semiconductor production for 3rd parties at Samsung isn't going anywhere either, they do tons of it. I know lots of people that work there. EVERYONE (almost) outsources semiconductor fabrication. Are they all fragile? Not many companies own their own plastic or metal factories either. I really am not sure what you're trying to get at here.

saurik 5y ago

Apple carefully selects all of this and makes it work; the "take", as it were, wasn't precisely that Apple does everything (and so I feel like you critically misunderstood it), but that Apple controls everything: any extension of the ecosystem doesn't just block on Apple... it nigh unto must be initiated by Apple.

tucosan 5y ago

This. Plus, their dependence on Chinas goodwill makes them vulnerable. China commands significant power over Apples manufacturing capabilities. Just take a look at Apples supplier list ^1 This is the opposite of antifragile. Tencent, Pinduoduo, Alibaba are prime examples of how much influence the Chinese government is willing to exercise over companies in case it finds them to not be aligned with it's own interests. The Chinese government effectively has access to the private iCloud keys for Apples Chinese users. From an investors perspective I'm a bit bearish on AAPL. ^1: https://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/pdf/Apple-Supplier-List.pdf https://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/pdf/Apple-Supp...

stjohnswarts 5y ago

TSMC isn't going anywhere and semiconductor production for 3rd parties at Samsung isn't going anywhere either, they do tons of it. I know lots of people that work there. EVERYONE (almost) outsources semiconductor fabrication. Are they all fragile? Not many companies own their own plastic or metal factories either. I really am not sure what you're trying to get at here.