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>The same market has also accepted: ... As well as accepting a host of other things beyond paper notes redeemable for x. Efficient market hypothesis is based o

>The same market has also accepted: ... As well as accepting a host of other things beyond paper notes redeemable for x. Efficient market hypothesis is based on humans acting rationally with available information. But humans tend to be short sighted and only optimize for their lifespans. Ex: clearly we have done poorly with carbon emissions and global warming, and now we can only hope that throwing money at the problem can solve it. As things get worse, we'll throw more money at it. But all we can do is hope that a solution will be found, and that is scary. > The shareholders of the federal reserve branches did… Can you explain what you mean by this? "The Federal Reserve System is not "owned" by anyone. The Federal Reserve was created in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act to serve as the nation's central bank. The Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., is an agency of the federal government and reports to and is directly accountable to the Congress" https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm > I don't have that fear, the market will adapt with the times based on demand and risks individual actors perceive relative to the power they have to make their desires a reality, rather than some hypothetical idealized scenario we can carve out in our minds about how it "should" be. I'm confident society will make it out alive, but at what cost. What does the mother of all hyperinflation events look like? What are the effects of the collapse of the world's reserve currency? The closer we get to those events, the more seriously people will start to take this problem.

cinquemb 5y ago
> Efficient market hypothesis is based on humans acting rationally with available information. I'm not claiming markets are efficient, or that all humans have access to the same amount of resources or information, just that there are many different incentives out there for people and there isn't a one size fits all. > Ex: clearly we have done poorly with carbon emissions and global warming, and now we can only hope that throwing money at the problem can solve it. Even with this, not everyone has the same perspective or the same exposure to the downsides. Not everyone will throw more resources at their problems, some will more than others, some will collect it and squander it more than others, no matter their ends. > Can you explain what you mean by this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branches https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branch... > I'm confident society will make it out alive, but at what cost. The cost is irrelevant, because whatever it may be, it's not going to be born by everyone equally, some will come out ahead and others wont (i.e. if ones family member bought a bunch of land [and didn't lose it through war/confiscation/default/etc] in 18XX with x paper notes, they'd be better off than someone who just spent equivalent x paper notes on a consumable in 18XX). Not everyone will be exposed to inflation because some people are hedged, or live in countries where the value of the dollar is constantly growing wrt what goods they can purchase locally with dollars. Events are always going to happen, and everyone will respond differently to them everytime. Sure pockets of consensus will form but to expect it to be prevalent among everyone is highly unlikely, and hoping for such to happen is a sisyphean task.
- coralreef 5y ago
  >Even with this, not everyone has the same perspective or the same exposure to the downsides. Not everyone will throw more resources at their problems, some will more than others, some will collect it and squander it more than others, no matter their ends. Well, if the greenhouse effect is real and our planet cooks itself, then pretty sure humanity as a whole is exposed to the downsides. >Events are always going to happen, and everyone will respond differently to them everytime. Sure pockets of consensus will form but to expect it to be prevalent among everyone is highly unlikely, and hoping for such to happen is a sisyphean task. If you know there are cracks in the dam, you do something about it. If a hurricane is coming, you sound an alert. Tragic outcomes can be bounded and limited by human function.
  - cinquemb 5y ago
    > Well, if the greenhouse effect is real and our planet cooks itself, then pretty sure humanity as a whole is exposed to the downsides. People who have more resources under their control to secure food and shelter in the event of major catastrophe will fair better than those who don't not… some with quick thinking in the event of major catastrophe will fair better than those who just run around screaming and panicking… etc. > If you know there are cracks in the dam, you do something about it. If a hurricane is coming, you sound an alert. Tragic outcomes can be bounded and limited by human function. Some people knowing that a specific spot is more prone to hurricanes than others can choose not to live there… they will fair better than others who did not know, or did not chose to move away with the knowledge they had and staying put in the face of tail risk of losing their life was deemed worth it… If you think it is the individuals role to place the burdens off society on it's sholders above all else, I'm afraid we're never going to share the same perspective esp when comes to intricate matters of the eurodollar system…
    - coralreef 5y ago
      > People who have more resources under their control to secure food and shelter in the event of major catastrophe will fair better than those who don't not… some with quick thinking in the event of major catastrophe will fair better than those who just run around screaming and panicking… etc. I'm not sure if you understand the impact of environmental change. Entire ecosystems will collapse, species of animals and plants will die. It's not an earthquake. It's the gradual warming of the planet. Humanity as we know it may be eliminated. Nobody does well in this scenario. Earth is relegated to a dead and dying planet for the bacteria. I'm not convinced with the idea that pockets of humanity will proliferate living in small tribes, deep in caves and that somehow this is an optimized collective outcome of our individual choices. > If you think it is the individuals role to place the burdens off society on it's sholders above all else, I'm afraid we're never going to share the same perspective esp when comes to intricate matters of the eurodollar system… It's always been individuals and marginalized groups initiating pushes to better society. Disabled Americans had to fight for rights in the American Disabilities Act. Same with African Americans and civil rights. Same with women and the right to vote. They did it because nobody else cared. Do you not have shared humanity with these people? "Not my job to be concerned with them, they'll make decisions and I'll make decisions and some will do better than others, and whatever way that turns out to be will be the result of each person's optimized individuality." When the dollar collapses, it will be the working poor and marginalized people affected most.

cinquemb 5y ago

> Efficient market hypothesis is based on humans acting rationally with available information. I'm not claiming markets are efficient, or that all humans have access to the same amount of resources or information, just that there are many different incentives out there for people and there isn't a one size fits all. > Ex: clearly we have done poorly with carbon emissions and global warming, and now we can only hope that throwing money at the problem can solve it. Even with this, not everyone has the same perspective or the same exposure to the downsides. Not everyone will throw more resources at their problems, some will more than others, some will collect it and squander it more than others, no matter their ends. > Can you explain what you mean by this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branches https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branch... > I'm confident society will make it out alive, but at what cost. The cost is irrelevant, because whatever it may be, it's not going to be born by everyone equally, some will come out ahead and others wont (i.e. if ones family member bought a bunch of land [and didn't lose it through war/confiscation/default/etc] in 18XX with x paper notes, they'd be better off than someone who just spent equivalent x paper notes on a consumable in 18XX). Not everyone will be exposed to inflation because some people are hedged, or live in countries where the value of the dollar is constantly growing wrt what goods they can purchase locally with dollars. Events are always going to happen, and everyone will respond differently to them everytime. Sure pockets of consensus will form but to expect it to be prevalent among everyone is highly unlikely, and hoping for such to happen is a sisyphean task.

coralreef 5y ago
>Even with this, not everyone has the same perspective or the same exposure to the downsides. Not everyone will throw more resources at their problems, some will more than others, some will collect it and squander it more than others, no matter their ends. Well, if the greenhouse effect is real and our planet cooks itself, then pretty sure humanity as a whole is exposed to the downsides. >Events are always going to happen, and everyone will respond differently to them everytime. Sure pockets of consensus will form but to expect it to be prevalent among everyone is highly unlikely, and hoping for such to happen is a sisyphean task. If you know there are cracks in the dam, you do something about it. If a hurricane is coming, you sound an alert. Tragic outcomes can be bounded and limited by human function.
- cinquemb 5y ago
  > Well, if the greenhouse effect is real and our planet cooks itself, then pretty sure humanity as a whole is exposed to the downsides. People who have more resources under their control to secure food and shelter in the event of major catastrophe will fair better than those who don't not… some with quick thinking in the event of major catastrophe will fair better than those who just run around screaming and panicking… etc. > If you know there are cracks in the dam, you do something about it. If a hurricane is coming, you sound an alert. Tragic outcomes can be bounded and limited by human function. Some people knowing that a specific spot is more prone to hurricanes than others can choose not to live there… they will fair better than others who did not know, or did not chose to move away with the knowledge they had and staying put in the face of tail risk of losing their life was deemed worth it… If you think it is the individuals role to place the burdens off society on it's sholders above all else, I'm afraid we're never going to share the same perspective esp when comes to intricate matters of the eurodollar system…
  - coralreef 5y ago
    > People who have more resources under their control to secure food and shelter in the event of major catastrophe will fair better than those who don't not… some with quick thinking in the event of major catastrophe will fair better than those who just run around screaming and panicking… etc. I'm not sure if you understand the impact of environmental change. Entire ecosystems will collapse, species of animals and plants will die. It's not an earthquake. It's the gradual warming of the planet. Humanity as we know it may be eliminated. Nobody does well in this scenario. Earth is relegated to a dead and dying planet for the bacteria. I'm not convinced with the idea that pockets of humanity will proliferate living in small tribes, deep in caves and that somehow this is an optimized collective outcome of our individual choices. > If you think it is the individuals role to place the burdens off society on it's sholders above all else, I'm afraid we're never going to share the same perspective esp when comes to intricate matters of the eurodollar system… It's always been individuals and marginalized groups initiating pushes to better society. Disabled Americans had to fight for rights in the American Disabilities Act. Same with African Americans and civil rights. Same with women and the right to vote. They did it because nobody else cared. Do you not have shared humanity with these people? "Not my job to be concerned with them, they'll make decisions and I'll make decisions and some will do better than others, and whatever way that turns out to be will be the result of each person's optimized individuality." When the dollar collapses, it will be the working poor and marginalized people affected most.