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> Gold was chosen by the market as the best monetary medium. The same market has also accepted: > and the continuous debasement of dollars has somehow been ac

> Gold was chosen by the market as the best monetary medium. The same market has also accepted: > and the continuous debasement of dollars has somehow been accepted as feature, not a bug. Every decade unto infinity, dollars will become worth less. As well as accepting a host of other things beyond paper notes redeemable for x. > Nobody chose fiat. The shareholders of the federal reserve branches did… > but I fear these gains hide the weaknesses in our monetary systems. I don't have that fear, the market will adapt with the times based on demand and risks individual actors perceive relative to the power they have to make their desires a reality, rather than some hypothetical idealized scenario we can carve out in our minds about how it "should" be. Some to this day only do commodity (i.e. certain multi party tested quality of gold and oil) settlement with other actors, others are okay with rehypothicated UST's and AAPL paper, and others are ok with BTC/ETH/USDT/beenie baby tokens/etc.

coralreef 5y ago
>The same market has also accepted: ... As well as accepting a host of other things beyond paper notes redeemable for x. Efficient market hypothesis is based on humans acting rationally with available information. But humans tend to be short sighted and only optimize for their lifespans. Ex: clearly we have done poorly with carbon emissions and global warming, and now we can only hope that throwing money at the problem can solve it. As things get worse, we'll throw more money at it. But all we can do is hope that a solution will be found, and that is scary. > The shareholders of the federal reserve branches did… Can you explain what you mean by this? "The Federal Reserve System is not "owned" by anyone. The Federal Reserve was created in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act to serve as the nation's central bank. The Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., is an agency of the federal government and reports to and is directly accountable to the Congress" https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm > I don't have that fear, the market will adapt with the times based on demand and risks individual actors perceive relative to the power they have to make their desires a reality, rather than some hypothetical idealized scenario we can carve out in our minds about how it "should" be. I'm confident society will make it out alive, but at what cost. What does the mother of all hyperinflation events look like? What are the effects of the collapse of the world's reserve currency? The closer we get to those events, the more seriously people will start to take this problem.
- cinquemb 5y ago
  > Efficient market hypothesis is based on humans acting rationally with available information. I'm not claiming markets are efficient, or that all humans have access to the same amount of resources or information, just that there are many different incentives out there for people and there isn't a one size fits all. > Ex: clearly we have done poorly with carbon emissions and global warming, and now we can only hope that throwing money at the problem can solve it. Even with this, not everyone has the same perspective or the same exposure to the downsides. Not everyone will throw more resources at their problems, some will more than others, some will collect it and squander it more than others, no matter their ends. > Can you explain what you mean by this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branches https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branch... > I'm confident society will make it out alive, but at what cost. The cost is irrelevant, because whatever it may be, it's not going to be born by everyone equally, some will come out ahead and others wont (i.e. if ones family member bought a bunch of land [and didn't lose it through war/confiscation/default/etc] in 18XX with x paper notes, they'd be better off than someone who just spent equivalent x paper notes on a consumable in 18XX). Not everyone will be exposed to inflation because some people are hedged, or live in countries where the value of the dollar is constantly growing wrt what goods they can purchase locally with dollars. Events are always going to happen, and everyone will respond differently to them everytime. Sure pockets of consensus will form but to expect it to be prevalent among everyone is highly unlikely, and hoping for such to happen is a sisyphean task.
  - coralreef 5y ago
    >Even with this, not everyone has the same perspective or the same exposure to the downsides. Not everyone will throw more resources at their problems, some will more than others, some will collect it and squander it more than others, no matter their ends. Well, if the greenhouse effect is real and our planet cooks itself, then pretty sure humanity as a whole is exposed to the downsides. >Events are always going to happen, and everyone will respond differently to them everytime. Sure pockets of consensus will form but to expect it to be prevalent among everyone is highly unlikely, and hoping for such to happen is a sisyphean task. If you know there are cracks in the dam, you do something about it. If a hurricane is coming, you sound an alert. Tragic outcomes can be bounded and limited by human function.

coralreef 5y ago

>The same market has also accepted: ... As well as accepting a host of other things beyond paper notes redeemable for x. Efficient market hypothesis is based on humans acting rationally with available information. But humans tend to be short sighted and only optimize for their lifespans. Ex: clearly we have done poorly with carbon emissions and global warming, and now we can only hope that throwing money at the problem can solve it. As things get worse, we'll throw more money at it. But all we can do is hope that a solution will be found, and that is scary. > The shareholders of the federal reserve branches did… Can you explain what you mean by this? "The Federal Reserve System is not "owned" by anyone. The Federal Reserve was created in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act to serve as the nation's central bank. The Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., is an agency of the federal government and reports to and is directly accountable to the Congress" https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm > I don't have that fear, the market will adapt with the times based on demand and risks individual actors perceive relative to the power they have to make their desires a reality, rather than some hypothetical idealized scenario we can carve out in our minds about how it "should" be. I'm confident society will make it out alive, but at what cost. What does the mother of all hyperinflation events look like? What are the effects of the collapse of the world's reserve currency? The closer we get to those events, the more seriously people will start to take this problem.

cinquemb 5y ago
> Efficient market hypothesis is based on humans acting rationally with available information. I'm not claiming markets are efficient, or that all humans have access to the same amount of resources or information, just that there are many different incentives out there for people and there isn't a one size fits all. > Ex: clearly we have done poorly with carbon emissions and global warming, and now we can only hope that throwing money at the problem can solve it. Even with this, not everyone has the same perspective or the same exposure to the downsides. Not everyone will throw more resources at their problems, some will more than others, some will collect it and squander it more than others, no matter their ends. > Can you explain what you mean by this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branches https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branch... > I'm confident society will make it out alive, but at what cost. The cost is irrelevant, because whatever it may be, it's not going to be born by everyone equally, some will come out ahead and others wont (i.e. if ones family member bought a bunch of land [and didn't lose it through war/confiscation/default/etc] in 18XX with x paper notes, they'd be better off than someone who just spent equivalent x paper notes on a consumable in 18XX). Not everyone will be exposed to inflation because some people are hedged, or live in countries where the value of the dollar is constantly growing wrt what goods they can purchase locally with dollars. Events are always going to happen, and everyone will respond differently to them everytime. Sure pockets of consensus will form but to expect it to be prevalent among everyone is highly unlikely, and hoping for such to happen is a sisyphean task.
- coralreef 5y ago
  >Even with this, not everyone has the same perspective or the same exposure to the downsides. Not everyone will throw more resources at their problems, some will more than others, some will collect it and squander it more than others, no matter their ends. Well, if the greenhouse effect is real and our planet cooks itself, then pretty sure humanity as a whole is exposed to the downsides. >Events are always going to happen, and everyone will respond differently to them everytime. Sure pockets of consensus will form but to expect it to be prevalent among everyone is highly unlikely, and hoping for such to happen is a sisyphean task. If you know there are cracks in the dam, you do something about it. If a hurricane is coming, you sound an alert. Tragic outcomes can be bounded and limited by human function.