4 ms·

It’s not a wave. While it has spiked, we are way safer than we were in the 1990’s: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rate-homcides-explai

It’s not a wave. While it has spiked, we are way safer than we were in the 1990’s: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rate-homcides-explained https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rat...

charrondev 5y ago
And less than in the 2000s? There’s a generation of adults who grew up with a gradual decreasing of crime rates throughout their lifetime. A regression to where we were 20 years ago is cause for some alarm.
adolph 5y ago
The grain of salt to add is that rates are dependent on reporting, just like rates of a disease are dependent on diagnosis. In my part of the US, the rate of “burglar bars” on windows have slowly gone down and I see no uptick. This leads me to give credence the “crime down” hypothesis based on people’s behavior at scale. On the other hand I see more preparation for civil disaster and disorder. Firearms may be more part of that story than a reflection of people’s thoughts about the potential for victimization during a “normal” day.
- dogorman 5y ago
  A rising awareness of the risks posed by house fires might also suppress the rate of burglar bar installations. If there were a fire in my house, I wouldn't want bars blocking my egress.
  - ec109685 5y ago
    I also bet the popularization of alarm systems help as well.
- greenie_beans 5y ago
  I’ll add that crime data is created by police. And a lot of them report a crime whether or not it led to a conviction. So somebody can get charged with a crime, be not guilty, and they’ll still be added to the statistics.
kaliali 5y ago
Report: Murders Rise 16% Across Major U.S. Cities in 2021 https://counciloncj.org/impact-report-1/ https://counciloncj.org/impact-report-1/
lugged 5y ago
Jesus, I didn't know people cared so much about metaphorical language choices. Guess it's all narrative shaping though eh. It's good we have people like you to police little old me from speaking out against your chosen narrative. Enjoy your spike.
- ec109685 5y ago
  I wasn't criticising your choice of words – just that people are over estimating the amount of new crime. This article talks about that phenonium: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/07/there-no-national-crime/619506/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/07/there-no-n...
  - lugged 5y ago
    They're not over estimating the amount of new crime. They're estimating the amount of unpunished crime which is why a "spike" or a "wave" whatever that even really means, is having a disproportionate response in gun sales.

charrondev 5y ago

And less than in the 2000s? There’s a generation of adults who grew up with a gradual decreasing of crime rates throughout their lifetime. A regression to where we were 20 years ago is cause for some alarm.

adolph 5y ago

The grain of salt to add is that rates are dependent on reporting, just like rates of a disease are dependent on diagnosis. In my part of the US, the rate of “burglar bars” on windows have slowly gone down and I see no uptick. This leads me to give credence the “crime down” hypothesis based on people’s behavior at scale. On the other hand I see more preparation for civil disaster and disorder. Firearms may be more part of that story than a reflection of people’s thoughts about the potential for victimization during a “normal” day.

dogorman 5y ago
A rising awareness of the risks posed by house fires might also suppress the rate of burglar bar installations. If there were a fire in my house, I wouldn't want bars blocking my egress.
- ec109685 5y ago
  I also bet the popularization of alarm systems help as well.
greenie_beans 5y ago
I’ll add that crime data is created by police. And a lot of them report a crime whether or not it led to a conviction. So somebody can get charged with a crime, be not guilty, and they’ll still be added to the statistics.

kaliali 5y ago

Report: Murders Rise 16% Across Major U.S. Cities in 2021 https://counciloncj.org/impact-report-1/ https://counciloncj.org/impact-report-1/

lugged 5y ago

Jesus, I didn't know people cared so much about metaphorical language choices. Guess it's all narrative shaping though eh. It's good we have people like you to police little old me from speaking out against your chosen narrative. Enjoy your spike.

ec109685 5y ago
I wasn't criticising your choice of words – just that people are over estimating the amount of new crime. This article talks about that phenonium: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/07/there-no-national-crime/619506/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/07/there-no-n...
- lugged 5y ago
  They're not over estimating the amount of new crime. They're estimating the amount of unpunished crime which is why a "spike" or a "wave" whatever that even really means, is having a disproportionate response in gun sales.