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Also, blowing up the fertilizer (and the port) to hide the fact that you were stealing fertilizer isn’t exactly a plausible story. People can be dumb, but come

Also, blowing up the fertilizer (and the port) to hide the fact that you were stealing fertilizer isn’t exactly a plausible story. People can be dumb, but come on.

addingnumbers 5y ago
Are you suggesting it's unthinkable that someone would burn down a crime scene? It happens a lot. Crime concealment consistently places among the top 6 motives in studies of arson. I'm not saying it's a very likely cause, but it would be hasty to rule it out
- throwanem 5y ago
  Are you suggesting that someone trucked away two thousand tons of ammonium nitrate without anyone noticing, presumably for the purpose of recycling it into explosives and thus in full knowledge of its explosive properties, and then capped this incredible achievement in stealthy theft by setting off the rest of it as an improvised bomb that drew every eye in the world? Because I'm not sure how that isn't what this claim of yours really adds up to, and I'm not going to call it impossible, but I am going to say it needs more substantiation than you have as yet seen fit to give it.
  - addingnumbers 5y ago
    I'm saying it would be premature to discount the possibility. A low-level dock supervisor could have been peddling this stuff for years, got spooked, and decided to cover his tracks, perhaps underestimating the size of the explosion, and assuming that the blame for an explosion would be spread too thin for his own liability to outweigh his personal, severe liability for his previous crimes. The comment I was replying to seems to assume this scenario is ridiculous without giving it due consideration. Again, I'm not saying this is a likely hypothesis, just that it's a credible possibility and didn't deserve the knee-jerk ridicule it was given.
    - dogma1138 5y ago
      The nitrate being stored in the port was a public secret, there is no way Israel and quite likely the US didn’t had surveillance covering it. If there was a shred of evidence suggesting that a regional actor siphoned any substantial amount of it it would’ve been released by now. Israel would’ve jumped on the opportunity to lay the blame on Hezbollah, Syria or Iran.
      - LorenPechtel 5y ago
        Why? Israel gains nothing by disclosing the information if they have it. Telling the world about it won't stop it, staying silent and watching the situation will help identify Hezbollah agents and facilities. It's the same as Hezbollah's vast arsenal of rockets in southern Lebanon. Right under the noses of the "peacekeepers" they bring in tens of thousands of artillery rockets and the world doesn't care.
    - ashtonkem 5y ago
      > I'm saying it would be premature to discount the possibility So you have no evidence, but demand that your theory be put on equal footing, just because. If you have evidence for a purposeful detonation, provide it. Otherwise you’re just selling conspiracy theories, something this forum has little patience for.
      - addingnumbers 5y ago
        Not my theory. I didn't initially suggest it, I don't believe it, I don't even like it. I certainly made no demands. A hypothesis doesn't require evidence. Others have made some strong points toward falsifying the hypothesis elsewhere in the thread. It really seems to me that you're eager to bicker with someone who is actually credulous of this theory and didn't find any, so you decided to lash out and distort statements from a person who suggests we refine our falsification of the hypothesis a little further than just saying "I mean, come on"
        ashtonkem 5y ago
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  How many people knew it was there before they blew up the entire port with it? Blowing it up certainly drew a lot of attention to both the ammonium nitrate, but also all the corruption surrounding it. Incompetence is always a more likely cause for these things than conspiracy. Not only do we have a long record of this stuff being stored in poor condition, we would also have tons of people leaking about the planned detonation of it were it purposeful.
- coldtea 5y ago
  >Are you suggesting it's unthinkable that someone would burn down a crime scene? No, they're suggesting that the other, far more specific scenario, that was described was implausible. Are you suggesting that 1+1=5?
redis_mlc 5y ago
FYI: Local Chinese officials routinely burn granaries when they expect an audit.

Also, blowing up the fertilizer (and the port) to hide the fact that you were stealing fertilizer isn’t exactly a plausible story. People can be dumb, but come on.

addingnumbers 5y ago

Are you suggesting it's unthinkable that someone would burn down a crime scene? It happens a lot. Crime concealment consistently places among the top 6 motives in studies of arson. I'm not saying it's a very likely cause, but it would be hasty to rule it out

throwanem 5y ago
Are you suggesting that someone trucked away two thousand tons of ammonium nitrate without anyone noticing, presumably for the purpose of recycling it into explosives and thus in full knowledge of its explosive properties, and then capped this incredible achievement in stealthy theft by setting off the rest of it as an improvised bomb that drew every eye in the world? Because I'm not sure how that isn't what this claim of yours really adds up to, and I'm not going to call it impossible, but I am going to say it needs more substantiation than you have as yet seen fit to give it.
- addingnumbers 5y ago
  I'm saying it would be premature to discount the possibility. A low-level dock supervisor could have been peddling this stuff for years, got spooked, and decided to cover his tracks, perhaps underestimating the size of the explosion, and assuming that the blame for an explosion would be spread too thin for his own liability to outweigh his personal, severe liability for his previous crimes. The comment I was replying to seems to assume this scenario is ridiculous without giving it due consideration. Again, I'm not saying this is a likely hypothesis, just that it's a credible possibility and didn't deserve the knee-jerk ridicule it was given.
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    The nitrate being stored in the port was a public secret, there is no way Israel and quite likely the US didn’t had surveillance covering it. If there was a shred of evidence suggesting that a regional actor siphoned any substantial amount of it it would’ve been released by now. Israel would’ve jumped on the opportunity to lay the blame on Hezbollah, Syria or Iran.
    - LorenPechtel 5y ago
      Why? Israel gains nothing by disclosing the information if they have it. Telling the world about it won't stop it, staying silent and watching the situation will help identify Hezbollah agents and facilities. It's the same as Hezbollah's vast arsenal of rockets in southern Lebanon. Right under the noses of the "peacekeepers" they bring in tens of thousands of artillery rockets and the world doesn't care.
  - ashtonkem 5y ago
    > I'm saying it would be premature to discount the possibility So you have no evidence, but demand that your theory be put on equal footing, just because. If you have evidence for a purposeful detonation, provide it. Otherwise you’re just selling conspiracy theories, something this forum has little patience for.
    - addingnumbers 5y ago
      Not my theory. I didn't initially suggest it, I don't believe it, I don't even like it. I certainly made no demands. A hypothesis doesn't require evidence. Others have made some strong points toward falsifying the hypothesis elsewhere in the thread. It really seems to me that you're eager to bicker with someone who is actually credulous of this theory and didn't find any, so you decided to lash out and distort statements from a person who suggests we refine our falsification of the hypothesis a little further than just saying "I mean, come on"
      - ashtonkem 5y ago
ashtonkem 5y ago
How many people knew it was there before they blew up the entire port with it? Blowing it up certainly drew a lot of attention to both the ammonium nitrate, but also all the corruption surrounding it. Incompetence is always a more likely cause for these things than conspiracy. Not only do we have a long record of this stuff being stored in poor condition, we would also have tons of people leaking about the planned detonation of it were it purposeful.
coldtea 5y ago
>Are you suggesting it's unthinkable that someone would burn down a crime scene? No, they're suggesting that the other, far more specific scenario, that was described was implausible. Are you suggesting that 1+1=5?

redis_mlc 5y ago

FYI: Local Chinese officials routinely burn granaries when they expect an audit.