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I mean it’s a theory, but ammonium nitrate is an incredibly common farming input. At the nation state level especially I don’t think you’d need to concoct a co

by CPLX 5y ago

I mean it’s a theory, but ammonium nitrate is an incredibly common farming input. At the nation state level especially I don’t think you’d need to concoct a complicated scheme to get your hands on it.

ipnon 5y ago
But Hamas, ISIS, FSA, Hezbollah, cannot simply park their bomb materials in a well-functioning port. No, they would need some sort of semi-failed state, in a big city with many places to hide, yes ... and one sharing a flimsy border with a warzone like Syria. And once the materials enter the warzone, they effectively disappear, and could reappear anywhere in the region. Where on the map could we find such a port?
TedDoesntTalk 5y ago
I read this as another group, not a nation state, wanting and stealing the ammonium nitrate. Most of it was stolen before the blast — terrorist groups? Low-level thugs? Who knows, but you’re right that a nation state doesn’t need to steal it in this way. That’s why it points to other parties. It may be incredibly common but not in the quantity that was stolen.
- pvaldes 5y ago
  Must take in mind that the stuff also decomposes spontaneously. If stored for many months in bad conditions of conservation some amount just would go silently to the air in form of water vapor and laughing gas.
qubex 5y ago
> ammonium nitrate is an incredibly common farming input True, but this stuff was intended for use as a mining blasting agent in Africa so lacked most of the stabilisers added to the agricultural stuff specifically to make it less suitable for deliberate or accidental use as an explosive. In the context of this theory at least, this makes the material more valuable/suitable for ‘military’ use.
mike_d 5y ago
The EU bans export of fertilizer containing more than 16% ammonium nitrate. Many countries won't even ship it to the Middle East. The Beruit stockpile was from a ship that was held in port on its way to another country, with "weapons grade" ammonium nitrate intended for an explosives manufacturer.

by CPLX 5y ago

ipnon 5y ago

But Hamas, ISIS, FSA, Hezbollah, cannot simply park their bomb materials in a well-functioning port. No, they would need some sort of semi-failed state, in a big city with many places to hide, yes ... and one sharing a flimsy border with a warzone like Syria. And once the materials enter the warzone, they effectively disappear, and could reappear anywhere in the region. Where on the map could we find such a port?

TedDoesntTalk 5y ago

I read this as another group, not a nation state, wanting and stealing the ammonium nitrate. Most of it was stolen before the blast — terrorist groups? Low-level thugs? Who knows, but you’re right that a nation state doesn’t need to steal it in this way. That’s why it points to other parties. It may be incredibly common but not in the quantity that was stolen.

pvaldes 5y ago
Must take in mind that the stuff also decomposes spontaneously. If stored for many months in bad conditions of conservation some amount just would go silently to the air in form of water vapor and laughing gas.

qubex 5y ago

> ammonium nitrate is an incredibly common farming input True, but this stuff was intended for use as a mining blasting agent in Africa so lacked most of the stabilisers added to the agricultural stuff specifically to make it less suitable for deliberate or accidental use as an explosive. In the context of this theory at least, this makes the material more valuable/suitable for ‘military’ use.

mike_d 5y ago

The EU bans export of fertilizer containing more than 16% ammonium nitrate. Many countries won't even ship it to the Middle East. The Beruit stockpile was from a ship that was held in port on its way to another country, with "weapons grade" ammonium nitrate intended for an explosives manufacturer.