Let’s say there’s a test that, by pure chance, has a probability of p=1/N of returning an unexpected outcome. If we run that test N times, we expect on average

Let’s say there’s a test that, by pure chance, has a probability of p=1/N of returning an unexpected outcome. If we run that test N times, we expect on average one unexpected outcome, solely due to random chance. I haven’t read the linked paper yet, but its authors’ argument is that they have orthogonal evidence that p in this case should be considerably larger than 1/24, so given 24 total studies on the lead crime hypothesis, at least one should have returned a negative result purely by chance. The validity of this claim depends entirely on whether their argument that p>>1/24 is sound.