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I think people are doing more work than ever, but that doesn't mean the work is useful. Think about how much easier it is to build a SaaS or something vs. even

I think people are doing more work than ever, but that doesn't mean the work is useful. Think about how much easier it is to build a SaaS or something vs. even just ten years ago, but that doesn't mean that the new stuff being built will bring economic value. In fact we might expect there to be diminishing returns in terms of what delivers real utility and thus improvements in productivity don't translate to a similar increase in wealth generation.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Everyone churning out Tiktok, Clubhouse, and Robinhood while we need more SpaceX and Teslas. I’m unsure how to tilt the equation so solving for hard (necessary) engineering is more profitable (or lower risk) than window dressing.
- alexgmcm 5y ago
  “The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads.” – Jeff Hammerbacher
- dcolkitt 5y ago
  TikTok, Clubhouse and Robinhood have touched the lives of orders of magnitudes more people than Tesla or SpaceX. Tesla sold half a million cars last year. TikTok provided entertainment for a billion people.
  - mewpmewp2 5y ago
    And was what TikTok did positive impact?
    - colinmhayes 5y ago
      You don't think bringing people joy is a positive impact?
      - toomuchtodo 5y ago
        Cocaine triggers a dopamine response (simplified, I dated someone with an addiction). Is that a positive impact? Moderation is important, as in reflection as to why you’re enjoying something and if it's healthy.
        colinmhayes 5y ago
        If cocaine was free I think it'd have a tremendously positive impact.
        toomuchtodo 5y ago
        Maybe with robust social safety nets and mental health services available (Portugal model).
        trhway 5y ago
        cocaine was cheap and easy available a century+ ago (for example the original Coca-Cola was an over-the-counter headache treating mix which contained alcohol and cocaine). Didn't lead to much positive impact. (Note: i'm for full unlimited legalization, though not because it is that good, it is just that 1.the adults have the right to practice Darwin theories and 2.the Prohibition is really bad)
        N00bN00b 5y ago
        Not for me it won't.
      - gilmore606 5y ago
        Were those people not being brought joy before TikTok? Did the amount of joy in the world increase? Does it increase with every new frivolous app? If so eventually we will be overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being alive, but that does not seem to be the trend.
        colinmhayes 5y ago
        Yes TikTok increases the joy its users experienced, otherwise they would still be doing what they were doing before. I do think people are much happier than they were 20 or even 10 years ago, largely thanks to the increased joy brought by better apps. Can that continue until people are "overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being alive"? No clue, doesn't seem likely, but it's certainly possible.
  - MattGaiser 5y ago
    That is just counting interactions, not the impact of the interactions.
  - paulpauper 5y ago
    tesla does not exist in a vacuum though.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    I think there’s a disconnect in what we deem to be value. SpaceX has rapidly reduced the cost of lift to orbit (and shortly, revolutionizing global comms via StarLink). Tesla has forced an entire industry (light vehicles) to electrify by demonstrating very little compromise vs combustion vehicles while their stationary storage products are forcing thermal generators off the electrical grid (cannibalizing ancillary/frequency response revenue, the last pieces of significant revenue thermal generators are holding on to). TikTok, Clubhouse, and Robinhood are various degrees of poison (both at the individual level, and the societal level). They're our generation's Philip Morris and Standard Oil (imho).
    - atonse 5y ago
      I have held this view for most of my life. But now I kind of see them as complementary to each other. At the end of a workday, a spacex or Tesla employee will likely sit down and watch stupid tiktok videos or Netflix or any number of things the rest of us do (or just sleep). The point is that we need both these things and they do complement each other. The way I think of it though, is more about scarcity of talent. The idea that a really smart human being (a finite quantity) can either help build a better renewable energy system or a better video compression pipeline, that feels more obvious. One is using their talents to help humanity. The other is using their talents to help a company’s bottom line but doesn’t actually add to the pleasure of the audience or the enjoyment of humanity like the actual content does. And the cost of having a slightly less efficient video processing pipeline or subtitles software, is negligible compared to the cost of taking another five years to build better toilets, ways to recycle plastic, or use drones to plant trees. So it’s less about whether the companies are useful. It’s more about where we most need our best and brightest talents used. It’s that gross misallocation of talent at places like Facebook, Netflix, and Apple that bothers me.
    - RandomLensman 5y ago
      In the past, the systems that thought they knew top down what is "valuable" and what isn't in the economy and society in a more granular level didn't work out so well. Maybe the only reason we are spared extermination by some alien enemy is because our videos are so great (I think there is a short story from Philip K. Dick simikar to that).
  - ren_engineer 5y ago
    drug cartels "touch" the lives of millions of people and make billions in revenue and I'd say they are a net negative for society most consumer apps are net negatives that sell digital dopamine hits and studies have shown make people more depressed the more they use them
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - kharak 5y ago
    I believe this is the major problem. During all times, humanity spends most of it resources to make more of the same. Does this world really need another social network? More movies? Games? Novels? Fashion? More e-commerce that is reselling existing products in new design? All of this work doesn't change a single thing. It's more of the same. Tomorrow, it'll be replaced by more of the same. Maybe it'll not be replaced, just added to a growing pile of more of the same. The space industry has a shot at changing humanities future. So does the aging industry, prosthetics, robotics, ai, fusion and others. It might not work out, but if it does, it'll change something.
danybittel 5y ago
This has also been my experience. Clients will always try to push as much as possible. Ie. if a task is now faster to do, the client will ask for that productivity improvement. It makes sense, if you continue to charge the old price and "keep" the productivity improvement for yourself, the client will eventually go elsewhere, where the productivity improvement is passed to him. You can somewhat mitigate the problem if you do creative work.

toomuchtodo 5y ago

Everyone churning out Tiktok, Clubhouse, and Robinhood while we need more SpaceX and Teslas. I’m unsure how to tilt the equation so solving for hard (necessary) engineering is more profitable (or lower risk) than window dressing.

alexgmcm 5y ago
“The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads.” – Jeff Hammerbacher
dcolkitt 5y ago
TikTok, Clubhouse and Robinhood have touched the lives of orders of magnitudes more people than Tesla or SpaceX. Tesla sold half a million cars last year. TikTok provided entertainment for a billion people.
- mewpmewp2 5y ago
  And was what TikTok did positive impact?
  - colinmhayes 5y ago
    You don't think bringing people joy is a positive impact?
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      Cocaine triggers a dopamine response (simplified, I dated someone with an addiction). Is that a positive impact? Moderation is important, as in reflection as to why you’re enjoying something and if it's healthy.
      - colinmhayes 5y ago
        If cocaine was free I think it'd have a tremendously positive impact.
        toomuchtodo 5y ago
        Maybe with robust social safety nets and mental health services available (Portugal model).
        trhway 5y ago
        cocaine was cheap and easy available a century+ ago (for example the original Coca-Cola was an over-the-counter headache treating mix which contained alcohol and cocaine). Didn't lead to much positive impact. (Note: i'm for full unlimited legalization, though not because it is that good, it is just that 1.the adults have the right to practice Darwin theories and 2.the Prohibition is really bad)
        N00bN00b 5y ago
        Not for me it won't.
    - gilmore606 5y ago
      Were those people not being brought joy before TikTok? Did the amount of joy in the world increase? Does it increase with every new frivolous app? If so eventually we will be overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being alive, but that does not seem to be the trend.
      - colinmhayes 5y ago
        Yes TikTok increases the joy its users experienced, otherwise they would still be doing what they were doing before. I do think people are much happier than they were 20 or even 10 years ago, largely thanks to the increased joy brought by better apps. Can that continue until people are "overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being alive"? No clue, doesn't seem likely, but it's certainly possible.
- MattGaiser 5y ago
  That is just counting interactions, not the impact of the interactions.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  tesla does not exist in a vacuum though.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  I think there’s a disconnect in what we deem to be value. SpaceX has rapidly reduced the cost of lift to orbit (and shortly, revolutionizing global comms via StarLink). Tesla has forced an entire industry (light vehicles) to electrify by demonstrating very little compromise vs combustion vehicles while their stationary storage products are forcing thermal generators off the electrical grid (cannibalizing ancillary/frequency response revenue, the last pieces of significant revenue thermal generators are holding on to). TikTok, Clubhouse, and Robinhood are various degrees of poison (both at the individual level, and the societal level). They're our generation's Philip Morris and Standard Oil (imho).
  - atonse 5y ago
    I have held this view for most of my life. But now I kind of see them as complementary to each other. At the end of a workday, a spacex or Tesla employee will likely sit down and watch stupid tiktok videos or Netflix or any number of things the rest of us do (or just sleep). The point is that we need both these things and they do complement each other. The way I think of it though, is more about scarcity of talent. The idea that a really smart human being (a finite quantity) can either help build a better renewable energy system or a better video compression pipeline, that feels more obvious. One is using their talents to help humanity. The other is using their talents to help a company’s bottom line but doesn’t actually add to the pleasure of the audience or the enjoyment of humanity like the actual content does. And the cost of having a slightly less efficient video processing pipeline or subtitles software, is negligible compared to the cost of taking another five years to build better toilets, ways to recycle plastic, or use drones to plant trees. So it’s less about whether the companies are useful. It’s more about where we most need our best and brightest talents used. It’s that gross misallocation of talent at places like Facebook, Netflix, and Apple that bothers me.
  - RandomLensman 5y ago
    In the past, the systems that thought they knew top down what is "valuable" and what isn't in the economy and society in a more granular level didn't work out so well. Maybe the only reason we are spared extermination by some alien enemy is because our videos are so great (I think there is a short story from Philip K. Dick simikar to that).
- ren_engineer 5y ago
  drug cartels "touch" the lives of millions of people and make billions in revenue and I'd say they are a net negative for society most consumer apps are net negatives that sell digital dopamine hits and studies have shown make people more depressed the more they use them
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- kharak 5y ago
  I believe this is the major problem. During all times, humanity spends most of it resources to make more of the same. Does this world really need another social network? More movies? Games? Novels? Fashion? More e-commerce that is reselling existing products in new design? All of this work doesn't change a single thing. It's more of the same. Tomorrow, it'll be replaced by more of the same. Maybe it'll not be replaced, just added to a growing pile of more of the same. The space industry has a shot at changing humanities future. So does the aging industry, prosthetics, robotics, ai, fusion and others. It might not work out, but if it does, it'll change something.

danybittel 5y ago

This has also been my experience. Clients will always try to push as much as possible. Ie. if a task is now faster to do, the client will ask for that productivity improvement. It makes sense, if you continue to charge the old price and "keep" the productivity improvement for yourself, the client will eventually go elsewhere, where the productivity improvement is passed to him. You can somewhat mitigate the problem if you do creative work.