5 ms·

Not a strong evidence for sure but the loss of jobs is not a good explanation either since there hasn’t been a similar jump in homicides in other countries.

by in3d 5y ago

ceejayoz 5y ago
That may point to a difference in lockdown policies, safety nets (for example: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-us-jobless-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-u...), etc. though.
- angry_octet 5y ago
  And, you know, gun culture. And a laissez-faire attitude towards other people death in general. I would expect someone to say that people have to take responsibility for their own lead intake, and "people make choices".
  - SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
    > And, you know, gun culture. You know despite year over year shattering records of gun ownership that homicides with firearms are almost historic lows right? https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-8.xls https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-... Edit: “Hmm, he sourced direct evidence… but I don’t like this truth”
    - jljljl 5y ago
      Homicides and crime overall are at almost historic lows globally, for various reasons (see this entire thread). To prove that gun culture and ownership doesn’t lead to crime, you’d need to show more than the data linked, such as a comparison between countries with strong vs. weak “gun culture” or high vs low gun ownership
      - SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
        And control for literally everything else in the world. Unless you want to cherry pick for “effect”. So instead of the impossible, let’s look at the only the USA’s historic gun violence in the 90s. We add more guns than there has ever been, 40% of all the guns in the world in the USA, crime goes down - we can’t say adding guns was the reason for a crime drop - but we can say it appears adding more guns did not cause more crime. Unless you have reason to believe crime would have dropped even more in an alternate universe where a magic wand was waved to remove the hundreds of millions of guns in the USA. But, a statement like that should come with evidence.
        jljljl 5y ago
        1. The number of households that own a gun has actually declined, according to surveys (US law prohibits collection of gun ownership data). We may have added guns, but the number of people + gun availability seem to be declining. If we look at just historic numbers like you say, I would argue that reduced availability of firearms _does_ seem to reduce crime. 2. Despite this decline, the US has a higher rate of gun ownership and availability than other high-income countries, and this correlates with one of the highest rates of homicide amongst those countries. So my naive read of the data would be that an even lower availability of firearms would lead to an even lower homicide rate.
        SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
        You clearly don’t understand this topic from the inside so allow me to explain the common trap you are caught in. You just pointed to bullshit. Not your fault, someone wanted you to think that. But I can promise no one even remotely associated to guns believes this. No. The number of firearm owning households has not decreased. That’s propaganda and you just don’t know any better. I’ve seen it as a competitor and a trainer, new gun owners are making up these records - not as Michael Bloomberg (the single biggest source of gun control money in the world) would have you think. The number of concealed carry permits are at record numbers. The number of training outfits has never been higher. The numbers of protestors for 2A civil rights has never been higher. The only place you’ll see otherwise are antigun outfits with extremely questionable methodology. The question you should be asking is why do you have your sources lying to you and what else have they lied about? So right off, you use a lie that is sold to you as comfort food. “Dont worry, it’s just the same few horders trading guns to each other, they aren’t a majority, you are”. Then you use that to make a completely evidencless assumption that less guns equals less crime - when we only have correlation of the opposite. So… while I really don’t like to apples and oranges… In 1997, Australia banned most all good defensive firearms. They also nearly doubled police per capita. Crime fell! But… in the USA crime fell by a greater amount over the same time period with no ban and only more guns added. So again; there is absolutely zero proof that less guns equals less crime, especially when faced that more guns hasn’t made more crime. > So my naive read Indeed. But the worse part is you don’t want the truth. You are looking for the lie. And going far to find it, why is that?
- in3d 5y ago
  Your initial statement that job losses led to an increase in homicides is not supported by any data though. You’d have to establish this first before we can talk meaningfully about the financial status of households during the pandemic. Also, why would homicides be different than other crimes due to job losses? Here is data showing that homicides did not go up during the pandemic in other countries: https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/covid/Property_Crime_Brief_2020.pdf https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/covid/Prop...
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    The link between economic distress and crime is long established.
    - in3d 5y ago
      Directly contradicted by the data I linked for other countries. In the US, pandemic (expected to be temporary) job losses with extended unemployment, cash grants, and other special programs like the eviction moratorium are not comparable to normal job losses. We know, for example, that the financial situation of the middle class has improved in 2020. And the lack of increase in other crimes also points to other reasons.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        > Directly contradicted by the data I linked for other countries. Other countries handled pandemic aid entirely differently; I even linked to an article highlighting specific cases in the comment you replied to. "It went up in the US, and not elsewhere" is a good sign the US's recent spikes had nothing to do with lead, in either direction.
mc32 5y ago
Maybe not so much job loss but less policing or intervention perhaps as a result of depolicing policies.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

Not a strong evidence for sure but the loss of jobs is not a good explanation either since there hasn’t been a similar jump in homicides in other countries.

by in3d 5y ago

Not a strong evidence for sure but the loss of jobs is not a good explanation either since there hasn’t been a similar jump in homicides in other countries.

ceejayoz 5y ago

That may point to a difference in lockdown policies, safety nets (for example: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-us-jobless-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-u...), etc. though.

angry_octet 5y ago
And, you know, gun culture. And a laissez-faire attitude towards other people death in general. I would expect someone to say that people have to take responsibility for their own lead intake, and "people make choices".
- SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
  > And, you know, gun culture. You know despite year over year shattering records of gun ownership that homicides with firearms are almost historic lows right? https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-8.xls https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-... Edit: “Hmm, he sourced direct evidence… but I don’t like this truth”
  - jljljl 5y ago
    Homicides and crime overall are at almost historic lows globally, for various reasons (see this entire thread). To prove that gun culture and ownership doesn’t lead to crime, you’d need to show more than the data linked, such as a comparison between countries with strong vs. weak “gun culture” or high vs low gun ownership
    - SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
      And control for literally everything else in the world. Unless you want to cherry pick for “effect”. So instead of the impossible, let’s look at the only the USA’s historic gun violence in the 90s. We add more guns than there has ever been, 40% of all the guns in the world in the USA, crime goes down - we can’t say adding guns was the reason for a crime drop - but we can say it appears adding more guns did not cause more crime. Unless you have reason to believe crime would have dropped even more in an alternate universe where a magic wand was waved to remove the hundreds of millions of guns in the USA. But, a statement like that should come with evidence.
      - jljljl 5y ago
        1. The number of households that own a gun has actually declined, according to surveys (US law prohibits collection of gun ownership data). We may have added guns, but the number of people + gun availability seem to be declining. If we look at just historic numbers like you say, I would argue that reduced availability of firearms _does_ seem to reduce crime. 2. Despite this decline, the US has a higher rate of gun ownership and availability than other high-income countries, and this correlates with one of the highest rates of homicide amongst those countries. So my naive read of the data would be that an even lower availability of firearms would lead to an even lower homicide rate.
        SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
        You clearly don’t understand this topic from the inside so allow me to explain the common trap you are caught in. You just pointed to bullshit. Not your fault, someone wanted you to think that. But I can promise no one even remotely associated to guns believes this. No. The number of firearm owning households has not decreased. That’s propaganda and you just don’t know any better. I’ve seen it as a competitor and a trainer, new gun owners are making up these records - not as Michael Bloomberg (the single biggest source of gun control money in the world) would have you think. The number of concealed carry permits are at record numbers. The number of training outfits has never been higher. The numbers of protestors for 2A civil rights has never been higher. The only place you’ll see otherwise are antigun outfits with extremely questionable methodology. The question you should be asking is why do you have your sources lying to you and what else have they lied about? So right off, you use a lie that is sold to you as comfort food. “Dont worry, it’s just the same few horders trading guns to each other, they aren’t a majority, you are”. Then you use that to make a completely evidencless assumption that less guns equals less crime - when we only have correlation of the opposite. So… while I really don’t like to apples and oranges… In 1997, Australia banned most all good defensive firearms. They also nearly doubled police per capita. Crime fell! But… in the USA crime fell by a greater amount over the same time period with no ban and only more guns added. So again; there is absolutely zero proof that less guns equals less crime, especially when faced that more guns hasn’t made more crime. > So my naive read Indeed. But the worse part is you don’t want the truth. You are looking for the lie. And going far to find it, why is that?
in3d 5y ago
Your initial statement that job losses led to an increase in homicides is not supported by any data though. You’d have to establish this first before we can talk meaningfully about the financial status of households during the pandemic. Also, why would homicides be different than other crimes due to job losses? Here is data showing that homicides did not go up during the pandemic in other countries: https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/covid/Property_Crime_Brief_2020.pdf https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/covid/Prop...
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  The link between economic distress and crime is long established.
  - in3d 5y ago
    Directly contradicted by the data I linked for other countries. In the US, pandemic (expected to be temporary) job losses with extended unemployment, cash grants, and other special programs like the eviction moratorium are not comparable to normal job losses. We know, for example, that the financial situation of the middle class has improved in 2020. And the lack of increase in other crimes also points to other reasons.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      > Directly contradicted by the data I linked for other countries. Other countries handled pandemic aid entirely differently; I even linked to an article highlighting specific cases in the comment you replied to. "It went up in the US, and not elsewhere" is a good sign the US's recent spikes had nothing to do with lead, in either direction.

mc32 5y ago

Maybe not so much job loss but less policing or intervention perhaps as a result of depolicing policies.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]