4 ms·

> In fact, because the sample size for homicides is so small, exactly the opposite is true. In general, studies that look at homicide rates in the '80s and '90s

by in3d 5y ago

> In fact, because the sample size for homicides is so small, exactly the opposite is true. In general, studies that look at homicide rates in the '80s and '90s simply don't have the power to be meaningful. The unit of study should always be an index value for violent crime and it should always be over a significant period of time. Homicide rates are used for good reasons: they are least subject to reporting variations, they are hardest to fudge, and it’s the most serious crime. Some evidence against the lead-crime hypothesis is the recent (2020-2021) jump in homicides in the U.S.

ceejayoz 5y ago
> Some evidence against the lead-crime hypothesis is the recent (2020-2021) jump in homicides in the U.S. With a fairly major confounding factor. The hypothesis was never "lead is the only reason there can ever be a homicide". The loss of 20 million jobs in a blink of an eye might well cause a spike. NYC, for example, is dropping back down. https://www.newsweek.com/shootings-down-june-new-york-police-report-almost-100-percent-more-gun-arrests-1607277 https://www.newsweek.com/shootings-down-june-new-york-police...
- in3d 5y ago
  Not a strong evidence for sure but the loss of jobs is not a good explanation either since there hasn’t been a similar jump in homicides in other countries.
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    That may point to a difference in lockdown policies, safety nets (for example: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-us-jobless-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-u...), etc. though.
    - angry_octet 5y ago
      And, you know, gun culture. And a laissez-faire attitude towards other people death in general. I would expect someone to say that people have to take responsibility for their own lead intake, and "people make choices".
      - SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
        > And, you know, gun culture. You know despite year over year shattering records of gun ownership that homicides with firearms are almost historic lows right? https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-8.xls https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-... Edit: “Hmm, he sourced direct evidence… but I don’t like this truth”
        jljljl 5y ago
        Homicides and crime overall are at almost historic lows globally, for various reasons (see this entire thread). To prove that gun culture and ownership doesn’t lead to crime, you’d need to show more than the data linked, such as a comparison between countries with strong vs. weak “gun culture” or high vs low gun ownership
        SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
        And control for literally everything else in the world. Unless you want to cherry pick for “effect”. So instead of the impossible, let’s look at the only the USA’s historic gun violence in the 90s. We add more guns than there has ever been, 40% of all the guns in the world in the USA, crime goes down - we can’t say adding guns was the reason for a crime drop - but we can say it appears adding more guns did not cause more crime. Unless you have reason to believe crime would have dropped even more in an alternate universe where a magic wand was waved to remove the hundreds of millions of guns in the USA. But, a statement like that should come with evidence.
        jljljl 5y ago
        1. The number of households that own a gun has actually declined, according to surveys (US law prohibits collection of gun ownership data). We may have added guns, but the number of people + gun availability seem to be declining. If we look at just historic numbers like you say, I would argue that reduced availability of firearms _does_ seem to reduce crime. 2. Despite this decline, the US has a higher rate of gun ownership and availability than other high-income countries, and this correlates with one of the highest rates of homicide amongst those countries. So my naive read of the data would be that an even lower availability of firearms would lead to an even lower homicide rate.
    - in3d 5y ago
      Your initial statement that job losses led to an increase in homicides is not supported by any data though. You’d have to establish this first before we can talk meaningfully about the financial status of households during the pandemic. Also, why would homicides be different than other crimes due to job losses? Here is data showing that homicides did not go up during the pandemic in other countries: https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/covid/Property_Crime_Brief_2020.pdf https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/covid/Prop...
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        The link between economic distress and crime is long established.
        in3d 5y ago
        Directly contradicted by the data I linked for other countries. In the US, pandemic (expected to be temporary) job losses with extended unemployment, cash grants, and other special programs like the eviction moratorium are not comparable to normal job losses. We know, for example, that the financial situation of the middle class has improved in 2020. And the lack of increase in other crimes also points to other reasons.
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        > Directly contradicted by the data I linked for other countries. Other countries handled pandemic aid entirely differently; I even linked to an article highlighting specific cases in the comment you replied to. "It went up in the US, and not elsewhere" is a good sign the US's recent spikes had nothing to do with lead, in either direction.
  - mc32 5y ago
    Maybe not so much job loss but less policing or intervention perhaps as a result of depolicing policies.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]

by in3d 5y ago

ceejayoz 5y ago

> Some evidence against the lead-crime hypothesis is the recent (2020-2021) jump in homicides in the U.S. With a fairly major confounding factor. The hypothesis was never "lead is the only reason there can ever be a homicide". The loss of 20 million jobs in a blink of an eye might well cause a spike. NYC, for example, is dropping back down. https://www.newsweek.com/shootings-down-june-new-york-police-report-almost-100-percent-more-gun-arrests-1607277 https://www.newsweek.com/shootings-down-june-new-york-police...

in3d 5y ago
Not a strong evidence for sure but the loss of jobs is not a good explanation either since there hasn’t been a similar jump in homicides in other countries.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  That may point to a difference in lockdown policies, safety nets (for example: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-us-jobless-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-u...), etc. though.
  - angry_octet 5y ago
    And, you know, gun culture. And a laissez-faire attitude towards other people death in general. I would expect someone to say that people have to take responsibility for their own lead intake, and "people make choices".
    - SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
      > And, you know, gun culture. You know despite year over year shattering records of gun ownership that homicides with firearms are almost historic lows right? https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-8.xls https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-... Edit: “Hmm, he sourced direct evidence… but I don’t like this truth”
      - jljljl 5y ago
        Homicides and crime overall are at almost historic lows globally, for various reasons (see this entire thread). To prove that gun culture and ownership doesn’t lead to crime, you’d need to show more than the data linked, such as a comparison between countries with strong vs. weak “gun culture” or high vs low gun ownership
        SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
        And control for literally everything else in the world. Unless you want to cherry pick for “effect”. So instead of the impossible, let’s look at the only the USA’s historic gun violence in the 90s. We add more guns than there has ever been, 40% of all the guns in the world in the USA, crime goes down - we can’t say adding guns was the reason for a crime drop - but we can say it appears adding more guns did not cause more crime. Unless you have reason to believe crime would have dropped even more in an alternate universe where a magic wand was waved to remove the hundreds of millions of guns in the USA. But, a statement like that should come with evidence.
        jljljl 5y ago
        1. The number of households that own a gun has actually declined, according to surveys (US law prohibits collection of gun ownership data). We may have added guns, but the number of people + gun availability seem to be declining. If we look at just historic numbers like you say, I would argue that reduced availability of firearms _does_ seem to reduce crime. 2. Despite this decline, the US has a higher rate of gun ownership and availability than other high-income countries, and this correlates with one of the highest rates of homicide amongst those countries. So my naive read of the data would be that an even lower availability of firearms would lead to an even lower homicide rate.
  - in3d 5y ago
    Your initial statement that job losses led to an increase in homicides is not supported by any data though. You’d have to establish this first before we can talk meaningfully about the financial status of households during the pandemic. Also, why would homicides be different than other crimes due to job losses? Here is data showing that homicides did not go up during the pandemic in other countries: https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/covid/Property_Crime_Brief_2020.pdf https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/covid/Prop...
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      The link between economic distress and crime is long established.
      - in3d 5y ago
        Directly contradicted by the data I linked for other countries. In the US, pandemic (expected to be temporary) job losses with extended unemployment, cash grants, and other special programs like the eviction moratorium are not comparable to normal job losses. We know, for example, that the financial situation of the middle class has improved in 2020. And the lack of increase in other crimes also points to other reasons.
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        > Directly contradicted by the data I linked for other countries. Other countries handled pandemic aid entirely differently; I even linked to an article highlighting specific cases in the comment you replied to. "It went up in the US, and not elsewhere" is a good sign the US's recent spikes had nothing to do with lead, in either direction.
- mc32 5y ago
  Maybe not so much job loss but less policing or intervention perhaps as a result of depolicing policies.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]