5 ms·

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

moeadham 5y ago
I think a lot of people care.
- Joeboy 5y ago
  I care - I chose my new flat partly based on its proximity to a Crossrail station. Nevertheless I'm optimistic that the delays will seem like historical trivia in a year's time.
- edent 5y ago
  No one using the Jubilee line today cares about the construction delays.
detritus 5y ago
Well, in the context of the linked article and hence the comments here, it seems relevant to mention the fact - 5 years after the article's publication - and to consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays?
- neRok 5y ago
  > consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays? Maybe. 3D models have been used to design and plan projects for over 20 years now (I've been in the industry in Aus for >15 years), and so the bulk of the models are not at fault here (because if these design models were the delay, the construction would also be delayed, but the article suggests it wasn't). But when you want to go to the next level (digital twin), and start modelling every individual light-bulb, tracking it and making it function as part of a "smart system", then things will take a lot longer. But actually, the article says; > Despite the huge amount of construction work that has already been completed, many aspects of Crossrail do not yet have an agreed-upon final design. That’s because the complexity and uncertainty involved in building large underground structures means that detailed “fit out” designs are begun only after it’s fairly clear how the space will look. This boggles my mind. I don't see how it couldn't all be completed at the start. The physical design should have a few flexibilities baked in, so that if the tunnel ends up a meter out of place, or the rail centerline is 200mm off target, the design should be able to absorb it with minimal re-work. But regardless of the physical layout, they could have mocked up a model beforehand that contains all the necessary "virtual" components. They would have known what rooms/etc were required, roughly how many entities were needed per space (eg, 4 chairs, 1 table, all with data tags). Then when you have a better idea on the physical layout, you can arrange the virtual components properly. So yes it's possible that trying to be too fancy was a major factor in the delays. I haven't worked in a professional software engineering environment, but I get the impression that at a high-level, construction engineering has similar traps and pitfalls. Just like when coding, engineers/modellers do come across problems with their initial design, and then have to face the choice of implementing significant work-arounds, or "refactor" to something different.
  - p_l 5y ago
    A big issue with digging under London is that you never know what you'll find
  - 7952 5y ago
    I have worked on major construction projects and a complicating factor is the sheer number of different disciplines involved. Teams work with their own systems and maintain their own state and then inexorably get out of sync. In computing this kind of thing is understood at a more fundamental level. You have locks, transactions, branches, merges, continuous integration etc. These same problems exist when designing a major project but are not understood. Information systems exist but seem to have shocking data models designed by committees. Existing software and experience is then transposed on top of this information system. But the engineers don't have expertise in data and are using software from another age that makes "drawings". Adding a live "as built" component to that is just asking for trouble.
    - neRok 5y ago
      > But the engineers don't have expertise in data The story might be different elsewhere, but here it is draftsman that make the 3d models and all the associated data, and to do get a job in the industry only requires 1 year of vocational education. To put it bluntly, these aren't the smartest people.
      - 7952 5y ago
        And you get one more place for people to get out of sync. One more excuse for why engineers don't need to understand their own fundamental tools.
throw0101a 5y ago
> Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays. I remember someone commenting that given the choice, it's better to delay shipping video games if you need to fix things. This is because not long after release no one will remember it being late, but everyone will remember (hearing that) it being a pile of garbage. Reputations are often very hard to shake.
- superdisk 5y ago
  Shigeru Miyamoto said that actually.
- user5994461 5y ago
  That's not true anymore with online updates and early access on steam. You can ship a game with lots of bugs and missing content, as long as the price is set in consequence.
  - DaedPsyker 5y ago
    I think there is only so far you can stretch that before reputational damage is too great. I've seen early access games effectively abandoned as result. The soon to be classic example is cyberpunk. Funny this actually happened to them before with the first Witcher game, originally very buggy and had a re-release that patched it, but they were a smaller studio then and their reputation effectively unknown.
    - user5994461 5y ago
      You need to put that in context. Compared to a decade or two ago, an initial release was printed on DVD and unpatchable, a buggy game was effectively plastic waste. If it weren't bad enough, reviews and magazines would demolish it and make sure there were zero sales later on (not that there was a lot usually because most sales happened right after release). It's an incredible progress for game developers that they can ship a buggy/incomplete game and improve it over the next year. (And you can write an announcement with every update to drive sales!)
  - 5y ago
Reason077 5y ago
> "Who cares? ... nobody will even remember a few years of delays." If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models. Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it was hoped this would get started in 2023, but I doubt there's any chance it will start before well into the 2030s now.
- user5994461 5y ago
  COVID and Brexit have drastically reduced the amount of commuters, for the foreseeable decades. Don't be surprised that $20B transportation projects are being reconsidered.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    The best capital improvements are the ones that you can obviate away through cheap behavioral or societal adjustments (just as the best line of code is the one you can remove or didn’t have to write).
    - Swenrekcah 5y ago
      These words aren't necessarily wrong, but quite irrelevant here, since Brexit can be called many things but 'cheap' isn't one of them.
      - toomuchtodo 5y ago
        Was more directed at COVID pushing remote work, negating the need to shuffle bodies around via public transit to do knowledge work. I agree Brexit has been an expensive, unnecessary shit show.
        QasimK 5y ago
        COVID has not been cheap either - it has cost hundreds of billions [0]. You could fund twenty crossrails for this amount of money. [0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/a-year-of-covid-lockdowns-has-cost-the-uk-economy-251bn-study-says https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/a-year-of-c...
radycov 5y ago
What churlish asinine myopia. Plenty of people affected by life changing disruption to their living conditions and communities. Seveal years of putting your life on hold is a big deal.
neverminder 5y ago
People who bought their houses along the line expecting speedy commute care very much.
FridayoLeary 5y ago
I'm inclined to agree. Every time i use the tube, i'm reminded that the Victorians were more ambitious in their infrastructure projects then us. But still, i haven't heard anyone having a nice word to say about HS2, i wonder if anyone here could explain the pros of it.

moeadham 5y ago

I think a lot of people care.

Joeboy 5y ago
I care - I chose my new flat partly based on its proximity to a Crossrail station. Nevertheless I'm optimistic that the delays will seem like historical trivia in a year's time.
edent 5y ago
No one using the Jubilee line today cares about the construction delays.

detritus 5y ago

Well, in the context of the linked article and hence the comments here, it seems relevant to mention the fact - 5 years after the article's publication - and to consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays?

neRok 5y ago
> consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays? Maybe. 3D models have been used to design and plan projects for over 20 years now (I've been in the industry in Aus for >15 years), and so the bulk of the models are not at fault here (because if these design models were the delay, the construction would also be delayed, but the article suggests it wasn't). But when you want to go to the next level (digital twin), and start modelling every individual light-bulb, tracking it and making it function as part of a "smart system", then things will take a lot longer. But actually, the article says; > Despite the huge amount of construction work that has already been completed, many aspects of Crossrail do not yet have an agreed-upon final design. That’s because the complexity and uncertainty involved in building large underground structures means that detailed “fit out” designs are begun only after it’s fairly clear how the space will look. This boggles my mind. I don't see how it couldn't all be completed at the start. The physical design should have a few flexibilities baked in, so that if the tunnel ends up a meter out of place, or the rail centerline is 200mm off target, the design should be able to absorb it with minimal re-work. But regardless of the physical layout, they could have mocked up a model beforehand that contains all the necessary "virtual" components. They would have known what rooms/etc were required, roughly how many entities were needed per space (eg, 4 chairs, 1 table, all with data tags). Then when you have a better idea on the physical layout, you can arrange the virtual components properly. So yes it's possible that trying to be too fancy was a major factor in the delays. I haven't worked in a professional software engineering environment, but I get the impression that at a high-level, construction engineering has similar traps and pitfalls. Just like when coding, engineers/modellers do come across problems with their initial design, and then have to face the choice of implementing significant work-arounds, or "refactor" to something different.
- p_l 5y ago
  A big issue with digging under London is that you never know what you'll find
- 7952 5y ago
  I have worked on major construction projects and a complicating factor is the sheer number of different disciplines involved. Teams work with their own systems and maintain their own state and then inexorably get out of sync. In computing this kind of thing is understood at a more fundamental level. You have locks, transactions, branches, merges, continuous integration etc. These same problems exist when designing a major project but are not understood. Information systems exist but seem to have shocking data models designed by committees. Existing software and experience is then transposed on top of this information system. But the engineers don't have expertise in data and are using software from another age that makes "drawings". Adding a live "as built" component to that is just asking for trouble.
  - neRok 5y ago
    > But the engineers don't have expertise in data The story might be different elsewhere, but here it is draftsman that make the 3d models and all the associated data, and to do get a job in the industry only requires 1 year of vocational education. To put it bluntly, these aren't the smartest people.
    - 7952 5y ago
      And you get one more place for people to get out of sync. One more excuse for why engineers don't need to understand their own fundamental tools.

throw0101a 5y ago

> Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays. I remember someone commenting that given the choice, it's better to delay shipping video games if you need to fix things. This is because not long after release no one will remember it being late, but everyone will remember (hearing that) it being a pile of garbage. Reputations are often very hard to shake.

superdisk 5y ago
Shigeru Miyamoto said that actually.
user5994461 5y ago
That's not true anymore with online updates and early access on steam. You can ship a game with lots of bugs and missing content, as long as the price is set in consequence.
- DaedPsyker 5y ago
  I think there is only so far you can stretch that before reputational damage is too great. I've seen early access games effectively abandoned as result. The soon to be classic example is cyberpunk. Funny this actually happened to them before with the first Witcher game, originally very buggy and had a re-release that patched it, but they were a smaller studio then and their reputation effectively unknown.
  - user5994461 5y ago
    You need to put that in context. Compared to a decade or two ago, an initial release was printed on DVD and unpatchable, a buggy game was effectively plastic waste. If it weren't bad enough, reviews and magazines would demolish it and make sure there were zero sales later on (not that there was a lot usually because most sales happened right after release). It's an incredible progress for game developers that they can ship a buggy/incomplete game and improve it over the next year. (And you can write an announcement with every update to drive sales!)
- 5y ago

Reason077 5y ago

> "Who cares? ... nobody will even remember a few years of delays." If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models. Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it was hoped this would get started in 2023, but I doubt there's any chance it will start before well into the 2030s now.

user5994461 5y ago
COVID and Brexit have drastically reduced the amount of commuters, for the foreseeable decades. Don't be surprised that $20B transportation projects are being reconsidered.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  The best capital improvements are the ones that you can obviate away through cheap behavioral or societal adjustments (just as the best line of code is the one you can remove or didn’t have to write).
  - Swenrekcah 5y ago
    These words aren't necessarily wrong, but quite irrelevant here, since Brexit can be called many things but 'cheap' isn't one of them.
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      Was more directed at COVID pushing remote work, negating the need to shuffle bodies around via public transit to do knowledge work. I agree Brexit has been an expensive, unnecessary shit show.
      - QasimK 5y ago
        COVID has not been cheap either - it has cost hundreds of billions [0]. You could fund twenty crossrails for this amount of money. [0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/a-year-of-covid-lockdowns-has-cost-the-uk-economy-251bn-study-says https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/a-year-of-c...

radycov 5y ago

What churlish asinine myopia. Plenty of people affected by life changing disruption to their living conditions and communities. Seveal years of putting your life on hold is a big deal.

neverminder 5y ago

People who bought their houses along the line expecting speedy commute care very much.

FridayoLeary 5y ago

I'm inclined to agree. Every time i use the tube, i'm reminded that the Victorians were more ambitious in their infrastructure projects then us. But still, i haven't heard anyone having a nice word to say about HS2, i wonder if anyone here could explain the pros of it.