8 ms·

London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

78 points by edward 5y ago

flancian 5y ago
(2016)
- dkdbejwi383 5y ago
  Is that the original opening date for the line or the article publication date?
  - caffeine 5y ago
    I think this is a (good) joke, but just in case - the article.
  - DrBazza 5y ago
    Announced this week that they're aiming for Feb 2022. https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/27/crossrail-aiming-for-february-2022-opening-date/ https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/27/crossrail-aiming...
- bambax 5y ago
  Indeed. From the article: > The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year. Currently the project hopes to be able to open one line in 2022 (maybe) and is at least half a billion pounds over budget.
  - jl6 5y ago
    Only half a billion? So 2% over budget? That sounds great for an infrastructure project.
    - DrBazza 5y ago
      According to wikipedia, at least, it's 4bn [1] But you're correct, for a (UK) infrastructure project that's actually pretty good especially considering it has to go underground through a city that has medieval and Roman ruins littered all over the place [2] > The total estimated cost has risen from an initial budget of £14.8 billion to £18.7 billion, as of August 2020.[7] 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossrail https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossrail https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/21/crossrail-delayed-again-until-2022-and-another-450m-over-budget-tfl-covid-19 https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/21/crossrail-de... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Mithraeum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Mithraeum
      - londons_explore 5y ago
        It isn't done yet... To really see how far the budget miss is, you have to wait for the thing to be finished and all costs accounted for, while also seeing how much the project has been scaled back (for example travel time goals not met because the trains are poorer performance than initially specced)
        tialaramex 5y ago
        Class 345s were all manufactured and are already in service today. Is their performance in fact "poorer than initially specified" ?
        londons_explore 5y ago
        I guess you'll see next year when the timetable is released
        tialaramex 5y ago
        The trains exist now, either they do, or they do not, perform as intended. Trial running is at 12tph now, so that's the same as the initial passenger service. If they can't hit the travel time numbers they already know that today. Trial operations will also give real (volunteer) passengers an impression of whether the service can deliver those times since they'll be undertaking test journeys late in 2021.
  - scoopertrooper 5y ago
    Well, in fairness the events of the last two years have probably caused delays to many infrastructure projects.
  - Symbiote 5y ago
    That is a pessimistic spin on things. They're opening the final part of the line (the new tunnels), they're confident of doing this in February, and there's a clear plan on how the rest will open in stages in the following 12 months or so. https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/12/crossrail-to-make-changes-to-its-staged-opening-plans/ https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/12/crossrail-to-mak...
    - tomatocracy 5y ago
      This is true but we've been here a couple of times before with Crossrail though so it might be sensible to take what they say with a pinch of salt - eg in late August 2018 they announced a surprise delay in opening from December 2018 to late 2019 then in April 2019 that became late 2020/early 2021 (which obviously then didn't happen either) - and that was all after it had already been delayed from its original 2017 planned opening. And bear in mind that the tunnelling work was completed in 2015. It's been an absolute travesty.
sgt101 5y ago
Filled with tumbleweed (except there is no tumbleweed in London)!
- riedel 5y ago
  Damn, they forgot to integrate people into the model?
monkeydust 5y ago
Impressive implementation of a digital twin. Looking forward to finally taking a ride in this thing when it opens.
Reason077 5y ago
> "The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year." We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."
- tsywke44 5y ago
  Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.
  - moeadham 5y ago
    I think a lot of people care.
    - Joeboy 5y ago
      I care - I chose my new flat partly based on its proximity to a Crossrail station. Nevertheless I'm optimistic that the delays will seem like historical trivia in a year's time.
    - edent 5y ago
      No one using the Jubilee line today cares about the construction delays.
  - detritus 5y ago
    Well, in the context of the linked article and hence the comments here, it seems relevant to mention the fact - 5 years after the article's publication - and to consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays?
    - neRok 5y ago
      > consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays? Maybe. 3D models have been used to design and plan projects for over 20 years now (I've been in the industry in Aus for >15 years), and so the bulk of the models are not at fault here (because if these design models were the delay, the construction would also be delayed, but the article suggests it wasn't). But when you want to go to the next level (digital twin), and start modelling every individual light-bulb, tracking it and making it function as part of a "smart system", then things will take a lot longer. But actually, the article says; > Despite the huge amount of construction work that has already been completed, many aspects of Crossrail do not yet have an agreed-upon final design. That’s because the complexity and uncertainty involved in building large underground structures means that detailed “fit out” designs are begun only after it’s fairly clear how the space will look. This boggles my mind. I don't see how it couldn't all be completed at the start. The physical design should have a few flexibilities baked in, so that if the tunnel ends up a meter out of place, or the rail centerline is 200mm off target, the design should be able to absorb it with minimal re-work. But regardless of the physical layout, they could have mocked up a model beforehand that contains all the necessary "virtual" components. They would have known what rooms/etc were required, roughly how many entities were needed per space (eg, 4 chairs, 1 table, all with data tags). Then when you have a better idea on the physical layout, you can arrange the virtual components properly. So yes it's possible that trying to be too fancy was a major factor in the delays. I haven't worked in a professional software engineering environment, but I get the impression that at a high-level, construction engineering has similar traps and pitfalls. Just like when coding, engineers/modellers do come across problems with their initial design, and then have to face the choice of implementing significant work-arounds, or "refactor" to something different.
notjustanymike 5y ago
This should finally validate hacker movies that do a swish 3D fly-by of the bank/casino/high-school they're breaking into.
davidgerard 5y ago
(2016)
loufe 5y ago
Can anybody here give a quick overview of why there are such delays for the line opening?
- crocal 5y ago
  Crossrail is legendary in the field as the example of what not to do when managing mega projects. What I was told by greybeards: systems engineering was non-existent and rushed to the « let’s start to concrete » phase. When the project started to install the various systems, all hell broke loose. For example, systems had to be taken in, then out, because they just didn’t work in the field. Side note: which makes this article really a good laugh. Who cares if your virtual model works if it does not in the real world? OK so, that would not have been too bad if the management of the mega project would just have recognized the fuck up and declared delays. Instead, it scrambled to find ways to recuperate the accumulating delays, while reporting green to the politicians. As usual, a cretin came into the room to suggest that signalling tests could be compressed down and commissioning tests could proceed while construction completed the remaining work. Problem: crossrail decided to experiment with a new hybrid signalling system that uses two different types of train control in order to maximize throughput in central london area. That turned an already rotten idea into an impossible one. Situation in the fields became insane. Signalling contractor shot a letter to cover ass. Politicians finally noticed, and sent clueless consultants to investigate, therefore opening the gates of hell. Aaaaah. I like the scent of Napalm in the tunnels. EDIT: typos
  - ArchitectAnon 5y ago
    I've worked on some mega projects as well, and the key to being on time and on budget is to manage the PR so that no-one knows when it's supposed to be completed and how much it's going to cost. The only difference between Crossrail and private sector projects is that there is no press scoutiny over how much over budget they have gone and how late they are.
dang 5y ago
Discussed at the time: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11562799 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11562799 - April 2016 (11 comments) London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11378752 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11378752 - March 2016 (1 comment)

78 points by edward 5y ago

flancian 5y ago

(2016)

dkdbejwi383 5y ago
Is that the original opening date for the line or the article publication date?
- caffeine 5y ago
  I think this is a (good) joke, but just in case - the article.
- DrBazza 5y ago
  Announced this week that they're aiming for Feb 2022. https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/27/crossrail-aiming-for-february-2022-opening-date/ https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/27/crossrail-aiming...
bambax 5y ago
Indeed. From the article: > The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year. Currently the project hopes to be able to open one line in 2022 (maybe) and is at least half a billion pounds over budget.
- jl6 5y ago
  Only half a billion? So 2% over budget? That sounds great for an infrastructure project.
  - DrBazza 5y ago
    According to wikipedia, at least, it's 4bn [1] But you're correct, for a (UK) infrastructure project that's actually pretty good especially considering it has to go underground through a city that has medieval and Roman ruins littered all over the place [2] > The total estimated cost has risen from an initial budget of £14.8 billion to £18.7 billion, as of August 2020.[7] 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossrail https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossrail https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/21/crossrail-delayed-again-until-2022-and-another-450m-over-budget-tfl-covid-19 https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/21/crossrail-de... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Mithraeum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Mithraeum
    - londons_explore 5y ago
      It isn't done yet... To really see how far the budget miss is, you have to wait for the thing to be finished and all costs accounted for, while also seeing how much the project has been scaled back (for example travel time goals not met because the trains are poorer performance than initially specced)
      - tialaramex 5y ago
        Class 345s were all manufactured and are already in service today. Is their performance in fact "poorer than initially specified" ?
        londons_explore 5y ago
        I guess you'll see next year when the timetable is released
        tialaramex 5y ago
        The trains exist now, either they do, or they do not, perform as intended. Trial running is at 12tph now, so that's the same as the initial passenger service. If they can't hit the travel time numbers they already know that today. Trial operations will also give real (volunteer) passengers an impression of whether the service can deliver those times since they'll be undertaking test journeys late in 2021.
- scoopertrooper 5y ago
  Well, in fairness the events of the last two years have probably caused delays to many infrastructure projects.
- Symbiote 5y ago
  That is a pessimistic spin on things. They're opening the final part of the line (the new tunnels), they're confident of doing this in February, and there's a clear plan on how the rest will open in stages in the following 12 months or so. https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/12/crossrail-to-make-changes-to-its-staged-opening-plans/ https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/12/crossrail-to-mak...
  - tomatocracy 5y ago
    This is true but we've been here a couple of times before with Crossrail though so it might be sensible to take what they say with a pinch of salt - eg in late August 2018 they announced a surprise delay in opening from December 2018 to late 2019 then in April 2019 that became late 2020/early 2021 (which obviously then didn't happen either) - and that was all after it had already been delayed from its original 2017 planned opening. And bear in mind that the tunnelling work was completed in 2015. It's been an absolute travesty.

sgt101 5y ago

Filled with tumbleweed (except there is no tumbleweed in London)!

riedel 5y ago
Damn, they forgot to integrate people into the model?

monkeydust 5y ago

Impressive implementation of a digital twin. Looking forward to finally taking a ride in this thing when it opens.

Reason077 5y ago

> "The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year." We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."

tsywke44 5y ago
Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.
- moeadham 5y ago
  I think a lot of people care.
  - Joeboy 5y ago
    I care - I chose my new flat partly based on its proximity to a Crossrail station. Nevertheless I'm optimistic that the delays will seem like historical trivia in a year's time.
  - edent 5y ago
    No one using the Jubilee line today cares about the construction delays.
- detritus 5y ago
  Well, in the context of the linked article and hence the comments here, it seems relevant to mention the fact - 5 years after the article's publication - and to consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays?
  - neRok 5y ago
    > consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays? Maybe. 3D models have been used to design and plan projects for over 20 years now (I've been in the industry in Aus for >15 years), and so the bulk of the models are not at fault here (because if these design models were the delay, the construction would also be delayed, but the article suggests it wasn't). But when you want to go to the next level (digital twin), and start modelling every individual light-bulb, tracking it and making it function as part of a "smart system", then things will take a lot longer. But actually, the article says; > Despite the huge amount of construction work that has already been completed, many aspects of Crossrail do not yet have an agreed-upon final design. That’s because the complexity and uncertainty involved in building large underground structures means that detailed “fit out” designs are begun only after it’s fairly clear how the space will look. This boggles my mind. I don't see how it couldn't all be completed at the start. The physical design should have a few flexibilities baked in, so that if the tunnel ends up a meter out of place, or the rail centerline is 200mm off target, the design should be able to absorb it with minimal re-work. But regardless of the physical layout, they could have mocked up a model beforehand that contains all the necessary "virtual" components. They would have known what rooms/etc were required, roughly how many entities were needed per space (eg, 4 chairs, 1 table, all with data tags). Then when you have a better idea on the physical layout, you can arrange the virtual components properly. So yes it's possible that trying to be too fancy was a major factor in the delays. I haven't worked in a professional software engineering environment, but I get the impression that at a high-level, construction engineering has similar traps and pitfalls. Just like when coding, engineers/modellers do come across problems with their initial design, and then have to face the choice of implementing significant work-arounds, or "refactor" to something different.

notjustanymike 5y ago

This should finally validate hacker movies that do a swish 3D fly-by of the bank/casino/high-school they're breaking into.

davidgerard 5y ago

(2016)

loufe 5y ago

Can anybody here give a quick overview of why there are such delays for the line opening?

crocal 5y ago
Crossrail is legendary in the field as the example of what not to do when managing mega projects. What I was told by greybeards: systems engineering was non-existent and rushed to the « let’s start to concrete » phase. When the project started to install the various systems, all hell broke loose. For example, systems had to be taken in, then out, because they just didn’t work in the field. Side note: which makes this article really a good laugh. Who cares if your virtual model works if it does not in the real world? OK so, that would not have been too bad if the management of the mega project would just have recognized the fuck up and declared delays. Instead, it scrambled to find ways to recuperate the accumulating delays, while reporting green to the politicians. As usual, a cretin came into the room to suggest that signalling tests could be compressed down and commissioning tests could proceed while construction completed the remaining work. Problem: crossrail decided to experiment with a new hybrid signalling system that uses two different types of train control in order to maximize throughput in central london area. That turned an already rotten idea into an impossible one. Situation in the fields became insane. Signalling contractor shot a letter to cover ass. Politicians finally noticed, and sent clueless consultants to investigate, therefore opening the gates of hell. Aaaaah. I like the scent of Napalm in the tunnels. EDIT: typos
- ArchitectAnon 5y ago
  I've worked on some mega projects as well, and the key to being on time and on budget is to manage the PR so that no-one knows when it's supposed to be completed and how much it's going to cost. The only difference between Crossrail and private sector projects is that there is no press scoutiny over how much over budget they have gone and how late they are.

dang 5y ago

Discussed at the time: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11562799 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11562799 - April 2016 (11 comments) London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11378752 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11378752 - March 2016 (1 comment)