22 ms·

Headline on Slide 17 in the deck: Delta variant vaccine breakthrough cases may be as transmissible as unvaccinated case

• lostmsu 5y ago
  It does not confirm your point. It says roughly "if a vaxxed and unvaxxed people are equally sick (e.g. same strength of symptoms), they transmit equally". However, vaxxed people get sick ~20x less, so they transmit ~20x less overall. (20x is a bad estimate here, taken from efficiency against hospitalizations)
  • deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  • jpster 5y ago
    Not sure how you’re arriving at this translation of what’s on the slide. Can you explain?
    • lostmsu 5y ago
      > No difference in mean Ct values in vaccinated and unvaccinated cases This refers to registered cases. Registered cases ~ symptomatic cases above certain threshold of symptoms (e.g. if you only have running nose or no symptoms whatsoever, you won't report anything). Suppose you have two separate groups of 100 people, one with all vaccinated, other with none vaccinated. In each, 1 member is sick and gets in contact with everyone. In unvaxxed group, say, you get 20 symptomatic cases, 30 asymptomatic cases, and 50 are lucky. In a vaxxed group (an example), you get 3 symptomatic cases, 10 asymptomatic cases, and 87 are lucky. Now according to my understanding the slide statement above applied to this though experiment says that every one in the 20 symptomatic cases from unvaxxed group has the same chance (individually) to transmit, as everyone of the 3 symptomatic cases of vaxxed group. But because vaxxed group has 6x less people on stage 2 who could transmit further, overall transmission rate is also almost 6x lower. E.g. the statement talks about sending chances, and not receiving chances. And overall transmission depends on both.