3 ms·
> Demand for the so-called RRP facility has surged since the Fed boosted the offering rate on it to 0.05% from 0% last month as a flood of cash continues to ove
by aazaa 5y ago
> Demand for the so-called RRP facility has surged since the Fed boosted the offering rate on it to 0.05% from 0% last month as a flood of cash continues to overwhelm the U.S. dollar funding markets. That’s in part a result of central-bank asset purchases and drawdowns of the Treasury’s cash account, which is pushing reserves into the system.
This article kind of leaves the significance of what's happening as an exercise for the reader.
The Fed is in the fight of its life to hold back negative short term interest rates. That 0.05% in the RRP is the only thing standing in the way. Yes, this is ironic (and alarming) because QE was supposed to drive down long rates and thereby entice borrowers to borrow. However, the massive drawdown of the TGA (the Treasury's account with the Fed) has left the banks starved for good collateral yielding anything. Money market funds are obligated by law to buy short-erm US Treasuries. Throw in various government transfers clogging up the banking system, and all of this puts huge pressure on short-term notes.
QE is only inflationary if banks lend against the collateral they receive as a result of QE. So far, that hasn't been happening much. So the potential here is a deflationary shock that few are expecting, with negative rates across the yield curve leading the way.
- toomuchtodo 5y agoWhat’s the play if your prediction is accurate?
- legolas2412 5y agoI think you could buy long term treasuries at the currently high interest rates. When interest rate goes down, your treasury value goes up.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- cinquemb 5y agoThe problem with this is that UST's are being used as collateral (maybe not for the "real economy" but definitely financial assets), are also rehypothicated many times over and face liquidation risks in line with notional value of credit risks of the positions its backing. Buying and holding long dated UST is like being leveraged long duration in the environment where interest rates are more sensitive to the credit risk of other assets in the system.