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I'm with the bet-the-house guy. I've worked for huge organizations since 1990 and I really think that even a mid-grade student project could make decisions as w

I'm with the bet-the-house guy. I've worked for huge organizations since 1990 and I really think that even a mid-grade student project could make decisions as well as the management I've known, which includes multiple Fortune 50 CEOs. When I say "known" I mean "known" and not "been ten layers under." What I think will happen is CEOs will be glorified actors that are tasked with delivering the decisions some ML system has made. It'll be like the "white guy in a suit" role that some Chinese companies have.

whall6 5y ago
Because you knew every counter factual, right?
snowwrestler 5y ago
ML systems don’t make decisions. I feel like a lot of comments about what ML will do start with a misunderstanding of what ML actually is. Saying ML will make a CEO’s decisions is like saying Excel will make CEO’s decisions. Neither is anything more than a system for keeping track of correlations.
- tomrod 5y ago
  ML models don't make decisions, but there certainly are ML systems, within which are ML models embedded with data flows, business logic, etc., which make "decisions" or "adjudications" or "classifications" or whatever term you are trying to avoid here.
- foobiekr 5y ago
  Neither do most CEOs. What they do is best guess which fully evaluated option for (d)investment they like better based on gut feel. Most business-oriented decisions are basically stack ranking the options presented.
eitally 5y ago
This is basically where we are today, except that instead of AI it's management consultants (and they're expensive).
bravura 5y ago
There are strong reasons to believe that tasks that are new to humans and are considered difficult, will be easy to AI. Like programming, finance, strategy, etc Whereas things humans have developed over millions of years and think are easy, like vision, dexterity, etc might be quite hard and the last things to be automated.

whall6 5y ago

Because you knew every counter factual, right?

snowwrestler 5y ago

ML systems don’t make decisions. I feel like a lot of comments about what ML will do start with a misunderstanding of what ML actually is. Saying ML will make a CEO’s decisions is like saying Excel will make CEO’s decisions. Neither is anything more than a system for keeping track of correlations.

tomrod 5y ago
ML models don't make decisions, but there certainly are ML systems, within which are ML models embedded with data flows, business logic, etc., which make "decisions" or "adjudications" or "classifications" or whatever term you are trying to avoid here.
foobiekr 5y ago
Neither do most CEOs. What they do is best guess which fully evaluated option for (d)investment they like better based on gut feel. Most business-oriented decisions are basically stack ranking the options presented.

eitally 5y ago

This is basically where we are today, except that instead of AI it's management consultants (and they're expensive).

bravura 5y ago

There are strong reasons to believe that tasks that are new to humans and are considered difficult, will be easy to AI. Like programming, finance, strategy, etc Whereas things humans have developed over millions of years and think are easy, like vision, dexterity, etc might be quite hard and the last things to be automated.