4 ms·

The ROC officially still claims to be the legitimate government of all of mainland China.

emodendroket 5y ago
They also claim all of Mongolia, so maybe that should be given to them as well?
WastingMyTime89 5y ago
In truth they don't but it's one of China red lines. If the ROC drops its claim on the mainland and just tries to be an independent country (things which the ROC wants to do), China said they will see it as casus belli and invades. China bullies Taïwan a lot but the rest of the world remains spinless in front of it.
- emodendroket 5y ago
  The remarks supposedly uttered by Trump on this topic [0] are one of the truer things he said: "Taiwan is like two feet from China. We are eight thousand miles away. If they invade, there isn’t a fucking thing we can do about it." There's a lot of talk about standing up to China, but in concrete terms, what does that mean? It's hard to see how any "kinetic" action doesn't go nuclear. I think we should just stop poking the hornet's nest; the Chinese would be quite happy leaving the 1992 Consensus alone. [0] https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7vpqb/trump-wasnt-going-to-do-a-fucking-thing-if-china-invaded-taiwan-a-new-book-says https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7vpqb/trump-wasnt-going-to-...
  - abraae 5y ago
    Ignoring the author of that quote, that sounds pretty realpolitik to me. What other option is there anyway?
    - emodendroket 5y ago
      “Limited” nuclear war is one people are talking about, or else first use that’s so devastating that it removes the Chinese ability to respond. I think they’re ill considered but I suppose they are options.
  - T-A 5y ago
    https://www.researchgate.net/figure/US-Military-Bases-in-the-Indo-Pacific-Source-The-invisible-empire-Why-the-United_fig1_339122250 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/US-Military-Bases-in-the... https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day/ https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-...
  - WastingMyTime89 5y ago
    > the Chinese would be quite happy leaving the 1992 Consensus alone. No and that's the main issue. China has a long term strategy going all the way to 2049, the centenary of the revolution and Xi has repeatedly hinted that getting Taiwan back is part of it. Modern China has an aggressively expansionist political strategy. Leaving China alone now would be making the same mistake which the world did with Nazi Germany in the 30s. Direct war is made complex by China's nuclear arsenal yet might be unavoidable in the long run but as of now all the diplomatic tools available should be used to contain them.
    - emodendroket 5y ago
      The way things are going right now is the US and Taiwan taking provocative actions to disturb the consensus and then acting like China is the aggressor when they respond.
      - WastingMyTime89 5y ago
        Having boats in Tawai waters which China illegally claims is not an aggression. Would you mind reminding me of which country has been building artificial islands in the strait for military purpose for years and is now harassing civilian boats? Sadly for the Chinese propaganda, the rest of the world still has access to free information.

They also claim all of Mongolia, so maybe that should be given to them as well?

In truth they don't but it's one of China red lines. If the ROC drops its claim on the mainland and just tries to be an independent country (things which the ROC wants to do), China said they will see it as casus belli and invades. China bullies Taïwan a lot but the rest of the world remains spinless in front of it.

emodendroket 5y ago
The remarks supposedly uttered by Trump on this topic [0] are one of the truer things he said: "Taiwan is like two feet from China. We are eight thousand miles away. If they invade, there isn’t a fucking thing we can do about it." There's a lot of talk about standing up to China, but in concrete terms, what does that mean? It's hard to see how any "kinetic" action doesn't go nuclear. I think we should just stop poking the hornet's nest; the Chinese would be quite happy leaving the 1992 Consensus alone. [0] https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7vpqb/trump-wasnt-going-to-do-a-fucking-thing-if-china-invaded-taiwan-a-new-book-says https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7vpqb/trump-wasnt-going-to-...
- abraae 5y ago
  Ignoring the author of that quote, that sounds pretty realpolitik to me. What other option is there anyway?
  - emodendroket 5y ago
    “Limited” nuclear war is one people are talking about, or else first use that’s so devastating that it removes the Chinese ability to respond. I think they’re ill considered but I suppose they are options.
- T-A 5y ago
  https://www.researchgate.net/figure/US-Military-Bases-in-the-Indo-Pacific-Source-The-invisible-empire-Why-the-United_fig1_339122250 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/US-Military-Bases-in-the... https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day/ https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-...
- WastingMyTime89 5y ago
  > the Chinese would be quite happy leaving the 1992 Consensus alone. No and that's the main issue. China has a long term strategy going all the way to 2049, the centenary of the revolution and Xi has repeatedly hinted that getting Taiwan back is part of it. Modern China has an aggressively expansionist political strategy. Leaving China alone now would be making the same mistake which the world did with Nazi Germany in the 30s. Direct war is made complex by China's nuclear arsenal yet might be unavoidable in the long run but as of now all the diplomatic tools available should be used to contain them.
  - emodendroket 5y ago
    The way things are going right now is the US and Taiwan taking provocative actions to disturb the consensus and then acting like China is the aggressor when they respond.
    - WastingMyTime89 5y ago
      Having boats in Tawai waters which China illegally claims is not an aggression. Would you mind reminding me of which country has been building artificial islands in the strait for military purpose for years and is now harassing civilian boats? Sadly for the Chinese propaganda, the rest of the world still has access to free information.