3 ms·
This model completely disregards how far SARS-COV2 has already spread. It is now in virtually all countries, and probably in quite a few different mammal specie
by zosima 5y ago
This model completely disregards how far SARS-COV2 has already spread. It is now in virtually all countries, and probably in quite a few different mammal species there to boot.
The mutation rate is the same everywhere, and somewhere it's going to mutate to become even more infectious. And from there it will spread to the rest of the world. As has already occured.
Now, all is not bad: lethality in vaccinated people are lower than for the common flu, and the future selection pressure on SARS-COV2 is to be more infectious and give fewer symptoms.
I don't think models such as these should be used to guide policy. And policy should not be guided by attempts to reduce mutation pressure. It's futile and potentially fairly destructive.
- sjg007 5y agoAt some point a variant basically becomes a new virus.