3 ms·

With regards to the VAERS data, it’s simply a matter of numbers. 140m people vaccinated, almost all of them older than 18, and all of them in a short time peri

With regards to the VAERS data, it’s simply a matter of numbers. 140m people vaccinated, almost all of them older than 18, and all of them in a short time period. A disproportionate percentage of whom are elderly, by the way. Some of them are going to die after getting a shot for no particular reason. As far as the miscarriage bit - somewhere between 15-25% of pregnancies end in a miscarriage. 4.4m pregnancies a year, 366k pregnancies a month, 33m women in the us of peak childbearing age, that means that in any given month ~1% of women discover they are pregnant. Most miscarriages happen in the first 12 weeks so we can roughly assume 3% of peak childbearing age women are within their first 12 weeks at any given moment. About 40% of that original group of women has had at least 1 shot, which works out to 2.2m/mo and 73k/day. 3% of 73k means that 2200 first trimester women every day got a shot. Every day, ~400-500 of those women will go on to miscarry at some point within their first trimester. Surely some reasonable percentage of those people will have that happen within a few days - if we say they’re all at the median of 6 weeks along, they have a 17% chance of miscarrying within a week, which means every day you have 7-8 women who get a vaccine shot and miscarry within a week. This is all obviously an estimation, but the math works. In reality the odds of miscarrying drop as you approach 12 weeks, so if anything, the odds of miscarrying within a week at six weeks is HIGHER than within the following two week. EDIT:I didn’t even think about the fact that unless you’re getting thr j&j you need two shots, so that’s two chances for a miscarriage within a week, so adjust appropriately .

bananabiscuit 5y ago
Yes I agree that math seems to work. I also agree that it is safe to assume that the COVID vaccine is somewhat unique in that it is being administered to women of childbearing age more than almost all other vaccines, which typically get administered to children. So for a more like-to-like comparison, let’s look at flu vaccine numbers, which gets administered to about 40% of American adults every year (including women of childbearing age). That would mean over the 20 years before 2021, about 250 million flu shots were administered to women of childbearing age, which is at least 5x more than the ~50 million doses of COVID vaccines given to women of child bearing age (my upper estimate based on your quoted vaccination rate for women of childbearing age times 6 months times 2 doses). However, anywhere between 40%-48% of spontaneous abortions over the last 20 years (depending on your exact query) are from this year. Which to me implies that the COVID vaccines are many times more harmful for reproduction than the flu vaccines, and the harm multiplier only gets bigger considering that there are other vaccines that women of childbearing might get that aren’t just the flu vaccine that I’m not counting. In any case, there is clearly some debate to be had here, that probably neither of us are really qualified to have. However it is worrying to me that attention doesn’t really get drawn to this and we don’t have many real experts weighing in on what this data means.
- mattzito 5y ago
  Or, when a woman gets a flu shot and then has a miscarriage, she doesn’t assume it was because of the flu shot, because she’s had a flu shot many times before. It seems like you’re being deliberately obtuse here.
  - bananabiscuit 5y ago
    I think I’m being very transparent and open minded. I’ll admit your hypothesis about the mundaneness of flu shots is very possible. My only point is that that hypothesis or some other hypothesis needs to be confirmed by experts. Instead the only people we have commenting on this are right wing pundits that have their own axe to grind.

bananabiscuit 5y ago

Yes I agree that math seems to work. I also agree that it is safe to assume that the COVID vaccine is somewhat unique in that it is being administered to women of childbearing age more than almost all other vaccines, which typically get administered to children. So for a more like-to-like comparison, let’s look at flu vaccine numbers, which gets administered to about 40% of American adults every year (including women of childbearing age). That would mean over the 20 years before 2021, about 250 million flu shots were administered to women of childbearing age, which is at least 5x more than the ~50 million doses of COVID vaccines given to women of child bearing age (my upper estimate based on your quoted vaccination rate for women of childbearing age times 6 months times 2 doses). However, anywhere between 40%-48% of spontaneous abortions over the last 20 years (depending on your exact query) are from this year. Which to me implies that the COVID vaccines are many times more harmful for reproduction than the flu vaccines, and the harm multiplier only gets bigger considering that there are other vaccines that women of childbearing might get that aren’t just the flu vaccine that I’m not counting. In any case, there is clearly some debate to be had here, that probably neither of us are really qualified to have. However it is worrying to me that attention doesn’t really get drawn to this and we don’t have many real experts weighing in on what this data means.

mattzito 5y ago
Or, when a woman gets a flu shot and then has a miscarriage, she doesn’t assume it was because of the flu shot, because she’s had a flu shot many times before. It seems like you’re being deliberately obtuse here.
- bananabiscuit 5y ago
  I think I’m being very transparent and open minded. I’ll admit your hypothesis about the mundaneness of flu shots is very possible. My only point is that that hypothesis or some other hypothesis needs to be confirmed by experts. Instead the only people we have commenting on this are right wing pundits that have their own axe to grind.