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Financial markets are not coupled to real economics anymore. They’re coupled to speculative gamesmanship. Whoever can generate statistics to captivate the mass

by yup00 5y ago

Financial markets are not coupled to real economics anymore. They’re coupled to speculative gamesmanship. Whoever can generate statistics to captivate the masses who do not understand them, via press releases, and media blitzes. That sounds cynical, but I “hob nob” with people invited to Davos, and run depts at Ivy League schools. Behind closed doors these are the conversations I’ve been privy too. How to captivate the “market” which is a euphemism created years ago to replace the religious concept of “flock”. Mirror neurons really challenge the correctness of any wisdom to come from business leaders. It’s a pantomime, ingratiate ourselves before the socially rich People see taxation as theft of property. I see it as reminding people there are no Gods or kings.

_game_of_life 5y ago
I don't know about mirror neurons personally, but the cult-like behaviour, evangelism, and buzz words in business has been easily observable for decades. Now you go into subreddits like /r/superstonk, bitcoin, GME, Dogecoin, etc. And the cultish religiosity is palpable in these echo chambers too. So I'm not really surprised by this, if what you've shared is true.
aeternum 5y ago
Marketing matters a lot, and NKLA was quite popular or even infamous there. A known brand does have value, even according to 'real economics'. Most investors seem to have been valuing that aspect and completely discounting the engineering/tech.
- yup00 5y ago
  It helps me to think in terms of particles and waves. A person is a particle and their influence is a wave. I’m not so sure light is both, but our cognition enables seeing it as both. Mirror neurons fire when we engage a behavior or see it performed. Our culture is built upon a meme repeating protectionist like chants for the rich, deflation for the middle class, and stagnation of the poor. Repeat, fire mirror neurons. It’s not perfect mind control though cause once you know how the sausage is made, why give that particle (rich person) reverence?
  - aeternum 5y ago
    People choose to exchange money for goods and services that improve their life. Rich people generally became rich by directly or indirectly providing goods and services that improved the lives of a great many people.
    - rhizome 5y ago
      Rich people generally became rich by inheriting lots of money. https://ips-dc.org/the_self-made_hallucination_of_americas_rich/ https://ips-dc.org/the_self-made_hallucination_of_americas_r...
      - aeternum 5y ago
        Providing for one's children can be a powerful motivator. How long does that generational wealth last on avg?
        rhizome 5y ago
        I don't have it at hand, but in finding that other page I came across something saying, I think, 3-5 generations. It's googlable.
        aeternum 5y ago
        That seems somewhat reasonable. Work hard, do exceptionally well, and you can benefit your grandchildren but not very far beyond that.
pvarangot 5y ago
I'm usually a very negative person but another side of the coin here is that if you were good at this "speculative generation of statics to captivate" the best way to raise money was "gaming" big capital. With the risk profile of retail investors changing and more risky ways to trade on public markets becoming accepted comes a positive aspect of the naturalization of highly speculative single picks on the stock market, it's easier for more people to raise a lot of money for risky endeavors. If it's going to be good or bad for society I don't know. I personally have most of my money on low risk stuff, and when volatility spikes I sometimes sell options in the morning before starting my day.
- SmellTheGlove 5y ago
  It sounds like your cult is Theta Gang then! Seriously though that seems to be what the quiet crowd is doing - taking advantage of the premiums caused by the general crazy that permeates the market. I don’t know enough to sell options but I keep meaning to read up.
  - zeusk 5y ago
    When your RSU and ESPP vest, open your brokerage and try selling a single 20-30% out of the money call that expires in a month. You can read about it, but actually doing it is not that hard. Although, given the inflated stock prices and US equity options being 100 sized lot - you do have to keep an eye to roll it out if market is getting really exuberant.
    - fshbbdssbbgdd 5y ago
      Warning that a lot of companies have a trading policy that forbids employees from investing in options or any kind of derivative on their own stock. You might be allowed to make options trades on other companies in the sector (not legal advice).
      - zeusk 5y ago
        I've only ever heard of this in the financial sector (even then, they can create trading plans for trades in future). But yeah sure, I am not a lawyer or a fiduciary and this is not legal or fiduciary financial advise.
skystarman 5y ago
You're mostly right but I don't see anything going on in the markets today as much different than how it has fundamentally operated over the past century or so. Hell, much of the same "speculative gamesmanship" was going on in the tech bubble of the late 90s. Just completely irrational valuations detached from reality. We ended up in a big correction. As Benjamin Graham said several decades ago and Warren Buffett Repeats constantly "over the short-term the market is a voting machine, over the long-term it's a weighing machine"
kazinator 5y ago
What is the time reference for "anymore"? Was the 1920's stock bubble and 1929 crash just following fundamentals the whole time?
thrwyoilarticle 5y ago
Anymore? Keynes said this in 1936.
morpheos137 5y ago
Yeah it is all bullshit all the time these days. Spoken as an "elightened" but not Illuminated one. This is not a left vs. right issue. It is a 99.9% vs 0.1% issue. Sadly most of the 99.9% actually deserve what's coming in the future struggle for resources because they would rather accept what is fed to them and be led like lambs to where ever than actually think critically about the world. Most of those that "get it" are not interested in helping the masses and the masses don't want to be helped anyway. Next couple decades may be interesting times.

by yup00 5y ago

_game_of_life 5y ago

I don't know about mirror neurons personally, but the cult-like behaviour, evangelism, and buzz words in business has been easily observable for decades. Now you go into subreddits like /r/superstonk, bitcoin, GME, Dogecoin, etc. And the cultish religiosity is palpable in these echo chambers too. So I'm not really surprised by this, if what you've shared is true.

aeternum 5y ago

Marketing matters a lot, and NKLA was quite popular or even infamous there. A known brand does have value, even according to 'real economics'. Most investors seem to have been valuing that aspect and completely discounting the engineering/tech.

yup00 5y ago
It helps me to think in terms of particles and waves. A person is a particle and their influence is a wave. I’m not so sure light is both, but our cognition enables seeing it as both. Mirror neurons fire when we engage a behavior or see it performed. Our culture is built upon a meme repeating protectionist like chants for the rich, deflation for the middle class, and stagnation of the poor. Repeat, fire mirror neurons. It’s not perfect mind control though cause once you know how the sausage is made, why give that particle (rich person) reverence?
- aeternum 5y ago
  People choose to exchange money for goods and services that improve their life. Rich people generally became rich by directly or indirectly providing goods and services that improved the lives of a great many people.
  - rhizome 5y ago
    Rich people generally became rich by inheriting lots of money. https://ips-dc.org/the_self-made_hallucination_of_americas_rich/ https://ips-dc.org/the_self-made_hallucination_of_americas_r...
    - aeternum 5y ago
      Providing for one's children can be a powerful motivator. How long does that generational wealth last on avg?
      - rhizome 5y ago
        I don't have it at hand, but in finding that other page I came across something saying, I think, 3-5 generations. It's googlable.
        aeternum 5y ago
        That seems somewhat reasonable. Work hard, do exceptionally well, and you can benefit your grandchildren but not very far beyond that.

pvarangot 5y ago

I'm usually a very negative person but another side of the coin here is that if you were good at this "speculative generation of statics to captivate" the best way to raise money was "gaming" big capital. With the risk profile of retail investors changing and more risky ways to trade on public markets becoming accepted comes a positive aspect of the naturalization of highly speculative single picks on the stock market, it's easier for more people to raise a lot of money for risky endeavors. If it's going to be good or bad for society I don't know. I personally have most of my money on low risk stuff, and when volatility spikes I sometimes sell options in the morning before starting my day.

SmellTheGlove 5y ago
It sounds like your cult is Theta Gang then! Seriously though that seems to be what the quiet crowd is doing - taking advantage of the premiums caused by the general crazy that permeates the market. I don’t know enough to sell options but I keep meaning to read up.
- zeusk 5y ago
  When your RSU and ESPP vest, open your brokerage and try selling a single 20-30% out of the money call that expires in a month. You can read about it, but actually doing it is not that hard. Although, given the inflated stock prices and US equity options being 100 sized lot - you do have to keep an eye to roll it out if market is getting really exuberant.
  - fshbbdssbbgdd 5y ago
    Warning that a lot of companies have a trading policy that forbids employees from investing in options or any kind of derivative on their own stock. You might be allowed to make options trades on other companies in the sector (not legal advice).
    - zeusk 5y ago
      I've only ever heard of this in the financial sector (even then, they can create trading plans for trades in future). But yeah sure, I am not a lawyer or a fiduciary and this is not legal or fiduciary financial advise.

skystarman 5y ago

You're mostly right but I don't see anything going on in the markets today as much different than how it has fundamentally operated over the past century or so. Hell, much of the same "speculative gamesmanship" was going on in the tech bubble of the late 90s. Just completely irrational valuations detached from reality. We ended up in a big correction. As Benjamin Graham said several decades ago and Warren Buffett Repeats constantly "over the short-term the market is a voting machine, over the long-term it's a weighing machine"

kazinator 5y ago

What is the time reference for "anymore"? Was the 1920's stock bubble and 1929 crash just following fundamentals the whole time?

thrwyoilarticle 5y ago

Anymore? Keynes said this in 1936.

morpheos137 5y ago

Yeah it is all bullshit all the time these days. Spoken as an "elightened" but not Illuminated one. This is not a left vs. right issue. It is a 99.9% vs 0.1% issue. Sadly most of the 99.9% actually deserve what's coming in the future struggle for resources because they would rather accept what is fed to them and be led like lambs to where ever than actually think critically about the world. Most of those that "get it" are not interested in helping the masses and the masses don't want to be helped anyway. Next couple decades may be interesting times.