3 ms·

How are you so sure you know the risk of Covid, that has both an immediate and longitudinal risk, that will likely increase due to fitness escapes? Let's not fo

How are you so sure you know the risk of Covid, that has both an immediate and longitudinal risk, that will likely increase due to fitness escapes? Let's not forget there are still unknown unknowns regarding the longitudinal risk of Covid.

ReadEvalPost 5y ago
Evolutionary pressure selects for less deadly viruses over time. You're right though, there is still longitudinal risk as this does not preclude a vastly more deadly strain--but at that point the effectiveness of a vaccine is similarly unknown.
- intended 5y ago
  COVID spreads most in the few days before and after the appearance of symptoms. Organ failure, lethality, are largely due to the immune response to the virus. The virus has little evolutionary pressure to be less lethal. COVID has already spread before the symptoms appear.
- Pyramus 5y ago
  > Evolutionary pressure selects for less deadly viruses over time. I'm hearing that for the first time, do you have a source? > longitudinal risk With longitudinal I meant the risk of what we have labelled 'long Covid' but really seems to be a conglomerate of different, sometimes chronic diseases in different people, that we still don't really know how to treat effectively (not very frequent in absolute terms, but orders of magnitude more frequent than any serious side effects we have observed due to the vaccines). So if I understand you correctly, what you are fearing is that there is some unknown risk about the mRNA vaccine, that will only reveal itself over time, but that we have no idea about the mechanism of action nor any actual cases. Is that right?
  - tpxl 5y ago
    >> Evolutionary pressure selects for less deadly viruses over time. > I'm hearing that for the first time, do you have a source? A virus that kills its host before it has a chance to infect others cannot reproduce. I cannot remember which virus it was (might have been ebola) but it wiped whole communities so fast it died off because there were no new hosts to infect.
    - Pyramus 5y ago
      Not sure if that's what parent meant - these are extreme cases. In general (e.g. in the case of SARS-Cov2) evolutionary pressure will increase transmissibility but is indifferent to lethality (again up to the extreme point where lethality precludes transmission).
      - tpxl 5y ago
        Won't any amount of lethality preclude some transmission?
        Pyramus 5y ago
        In general no, as was remarked in a sibling comment in this thread: SARS-Cov-2 on average spreads within the first 1-4 days after infection (viral titers peak on day 2 I believe), so the virus is indifferent to what happens after. I also want to remark that there is the opposite effect that transmissibility correlates strongly with viral load (amount of viral particles) and viral load correlates weakly with lethality.

ReadEvalPost 5y ago

Evolutionary pressure selects for less deadly viruses over time. You're right though, there is still longitudinal risk as this does not preclude a vastly more deadly strain--but at that point the effectiveness of a vaccine is similarly unknown.

intended 5y ago
COVID spreads most in the few days before and after the appearance of symptoms. Organ failure, lethality, are largely due to the immune response to the virus. The virus has little evolutionary pressure to be less lethal. COVID has already spread before the symptoms appear.
Pyramus 5y ago
> Evolutionary pressure selects for less deadly viruses over time. I'm hearing that for the first time, do you have a source? > longitudinal risk With longitudinal I meant the risk of what we have labelled 'long Covid' but really seems to be a conglomerate of different, sometimes chronic diseases in different people, that we still don't really know how to treat effectively (not very frequent in absolute terms, but orders of magnitude more frequent than any serious side effects we have observed due to the vaccines). So if I understand you correctly, what you are fearing is that there is some unknown risk about the mRNA vaccine, that will only reveal itself over time, but that we have no idea about the mechanism of action nor any actual cases. Is that right?
- tpxl 5y ago
  >> Evolutionary pressure selects for less deadly viruses over time. > I'm hearing that for the first time, do you have a source? A virus that kills its host before it has a chance to infect others cannot reproduce. I cannot remember which virus it was (might have been ebola) but it wiped whole communities so fast it died off because there were no new hosts to infect.
  - Pyramus 5y ago
    Not sure if that's what parent meant - these are extreme cases. In general (e.g. in the case of SARS-Cov2) evolutionary pressure will increase transmissibility but is indifferent to lethality (again up to the extreme point where lethality precludes transmission).
    - tpxl 5y ago
      Won't any amount of lethality preclude some transmission?
      - Pyramus 5y ago
        In general no, as was remarked in a sibling comment in this thread: SARS-Cov-2 on average spreads within the first 1-4 days after infection (viral titers peak on day 2 I believe), so the virus is indifferent to what happens after. I also want to remark that there is the opposite effect that transmissibility correlates strongly with viral load (amount of viral particles) and viral load correlates weakly with lethality.