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- Large shift in buyer's preferences due to COVID and remote work - Eviction moratorium - Low interest rates - Millennials at prime age for purchasing homes

- Large shift in buyer's preferences due to COVID and remote work - Eviction moratorium - Low interest rates - Millennials at prime age for purchasing homes - Inflation from QE - Institutional investors purchasing property - Limited new supply from construction As a prospective home buyer, it's hard for me to see enough of these factors changing within the next couple of years to make home prices more sensible. I feel like my choices are to (A) bite the bullet and accept that I missed out on better times for buying or (B) wait 3-5 years in the hopes that things turn around.

gibba999 5y ago
I suspect inflation will catch up soon enough. I suspect that's actually the major effect. We dumped a ton of money into the economy. I'm not sure how much we can take out without tanking the economy. My general feeling is that if we hit 50% inflation due to COVID19, we're about right. Economists would disagree with me, but I think the alternative is a deep structural wound to our economy.
- kazen44 5y ago
  how long can we continue like this though? In the end, a shock inflation will be even more disasterous as it will wipe everyone's savings. Also, either way, at some point the system will reach a point in which affording basic needs becomes more and more of a problem, especially if wages are not raised. The US had a stagnat minimum wage for nearly two decades.
  - gibba999 5y ago
    With bleeding inflation, and an ongoing pandemic seemingly forever? I'm not sure. My estimate was that 50% inflation as a one-time is about what it would take to: - Take drastic actions to bring the pandemic under control - Not drive debt-loaded businesses under - Not drive people out of mortgages This was at the very start of the pandemic. It's harmful, but I still haven't figured out a lower-harm alternative. The longer we delay, the more costs wrack up. I suspect at some point, the above will be too expensive too. Also: Inflation means everything goes up, including wages. We're seeing that right now. Both savings and debts get wiped out.
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> Eviction moratorium This is a big one, particularly since its effect is concentrated in high-priced geographies. Lack of foreclosure supply is a reduction in supply. Curious to see how that shifts at the end of this month as well as in March next year.
- erentz 5y ago
  What happens in March next year?
droobles 5y ago
Same here, my partner and I decided we're just going to bite the bullet. At least we can afford it and we'll lock that affordable mortgage into place and hope for the best.
levi-turner 5y ago
I can't comment on your particular situation, but my partner and I just went through this (closed in May 2021). Our thought-process was that we would only purchase if we could: - Plan to live there for 5-10 years - Plan finances to be able to weather a recession and housing bust within the next 1-3 years (related to the first requirement) - Plan to live in a place which would have been tolerable Pre-COVID This is a hard set of requirements for most people but fortunately we are in a good financial situation to be able to meet them. Pre-COVID: Both of us are remote now (with me having been remote for 3 years prior to COVID). Her commute would not be bad if she had to go to the office. It's not common for technical sales to be in offices, so I am not seriously impacting my career options. Live there for 5-10 years: We moved back to be near her aging parents. We don't plan on moving _away_ from them and like the area. The area is great for both of our careers and has fantastic schools. Recession weathering: We had enough available to put down a sizable (50%+) down payment so our monthly mortgage is do-able on 1 income. The net/net is that I'd hate to be a person who wasn't in a well-paying career who hasn't been fiendishly saving for many years.

gibba999 5y ago

I suspect inflation will catch up soon enough. I suspect that's actually the major effect. We dumped a ton of money into the economy. I'm not sure how much we can take out without tanking the economy. My general feeling is that if we hit 50% inflation due to COVID19, we're about right. Economists would disagree with me, but I think the alternative is a deep structural wound to our economy.

kazen44 5y ago
how long can we continue like this though? In the end, a shock inflation will be even more disasterous as it will wipe everyone's savings. Also, either way, at some point the system will reach a point in which affording basic needs becomes more and more of a problem, especially if wages are not raised. The US had a stagnat minimum wage for nearly two decades.
- gibba999 5y ago
  With bleeding inflation, and an ongoing pandemic seemingly forever? I'm not sure. My estimate was that 50% inflation as a one-time is about what it would take to: - Take drastic actions to bring the pandemic under control - Not drive debt-loaded businesses under - Not drive people out of mortgages This was at the very start of the pandemic. It's harmful, but I still haven't figured out a lower-harm alternative. The longer we delay, the more costs wrack up. I suspect at some point, the above will be too expensive too. Also: Inflation means everything goes up, including wages. We're seeing that right now. Both savings and debts get wiped out.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> Eviction moratorium This is a big one, particularly since its effect is concentrated in high-priced geographies. Lack of foreclosure supply is a reduction in supply. Curious to see how that shifts at the end of this month as well as in March next year.

erentz 5y ago
What happens in March next year?

droobles 5y ago

Same here, my partner and I decided we're just going to bite the bullet. At least we can afford it and we'll lock that affordable mortgage into place and hope for the best.

levi-turner 5y ago

I can't comment on your particular situation, but my partner and I just went through this (closed in May 2021). Our thought-process was that we would only purchase if we could: - Plan to live there for 5-10 years - Plan finances to be able to weather a recession and housing bust within the next 1-3 years (related to the first requirement) - Plan to live in a place which would have been tolerable Pre-COVID This is a hard set of requirements for most people but fortunately we are in a good financial situation to be able to meet them. Pre-COVID: Both of us are remote now (with me having been remote for 3 years prior to COVID). Her commute would not be bad if she had to go to the office. It's not common for technical sales to be in offices, so I am not seriously impacting my career options. Live there for 5-10 years: We moved back to be near her aging parents. We don't plan on moving _away_ from them and like the area. The area is great for both of our careers and has fantastic schools. Recession weathering: We had enough available to put down a sizable (50%+) down payment so our monthly mortgage is do-able on 1 income. The net/net is that I'd hate to be a person who wasn't in a well-paying career who hasn't been fiendishly saving for many years.