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It's incredible how a story titled Housing boom is over as new home sales fall to pandemic low was literally just published yesterday. Granted, these aren't the

It's incredible how a story titled Housing boom is over as new home sales fall to pandemic low was literally just published yesterday. Granted, these aren't the same publication but the stark difference between the two is bewildering. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/housing-boom-is-over-as-new-home-sales-fall-to-pandemic-low.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/housing-boom-is-over-as-new-...

scohesc 5y ago
Articles can be written with any viewpoint you want - it just depends on where you get the information from and who massages it to further push their opinion onto you.
- pessimizer 5y ago
  Real estate articles are usually rewritten press releases from the NAR, so really just a bullish viewpoint - either prices are rising so quickly that you have to buy now to lock current prices in, or they're so low that buying now would be a great bargain.
bombcar 5y ago
"New home sales" will fall to a low if supply is constrained by lumber shortages ... which would cause a spike in prices of new and existing houses. They're not directly comparable.
- BitwiseFool 5y ago
  I know there is actual nuance to both articles. I guess I'm just trying to express my frustration at how the two headlines seem to directly contradict each other.
- ghaff 5y ago
  Or sales fall to a low because people who wanted to move out of smaller places in a city pull back when they see what the prices are like. (But people who can afford it are still bidding prices up.) And, yes, while lumber prices have apparently headed back down, access to builders/contractors is still tight.
- sp332 5y ago
  The lumber shortage only lasted a few months, right? https://fortune.com/2021/07/26/lumber-prices-bubble-cost-wildfires/ https://fortune.com/2021/07/26/lumber-prices-bubble-cost-wil... says it's over.
  - xienze 5y ago
    I’m not an expert on the subject but I imagine lumber that builders buy is bought in terms of futures contracts. So whatever you buy today at a low price won’t actually be delivered for several months.
    - bombcar 5y ago
      Lumber is still $7 a stick (2x4 x 8ft) at Home Depot around here - about 3-5x what it was before.
paulpauper 5y ago
simple heuristic: to put a negative spin, use sales positive spin: use prices Sales tend to be much more volatile and cyclical than prices, so it's easy to find a negative data point
davidw 5y ago
The Shiller index is a bit of a lagging index: https://twitter.com/HousingRalph/status/1420020332774137856 https://twitter.com/HousingRalph/status/1420020332774137856
lupire 5y ago
That's the June data, which was down relative to May and April. Hence "boom over".

scohesc 5y ago

Articles can be written with any viewpoint you want - it just depends on where you get the information from and who massages it to further push their opinion onto you.

pessimizer 5y ago
Real estate articles are usually rewritten press releases from the NAR, so really just a bullish viewpoint - either prices are rising so quickly that you have to buy now to lock current prices in, or they're so low that buying now would be a great bargain.

bombcar 5y ago

"New home sales" will fall to a low if supply is constrained by lumber shortages ... which would cause a spike in prices of new and existing houses. They're not directly comparable.

BitwiseFool 5y ago
I know there is actual nuance to both articles. I guess I'm just trying to express my frustration at how the two headlines seem to directly contradict each other.
ghaff 5y ago
Or sales fall to a low because people who wanted to move out of smaller places in a city pull back when they see what the prices are like. (But people who can afford it are still bidding prices up.) And, yes, while lumber prices have apparently headed back down, access to builders/contractors is still tight.
sp332 5y ago
The lumber shortage only lasted a few months, right? https://fortune.com/2021/07/26/lumber-prices-bubble-cost-wildfires/ https://fortune.com/2021/07/26/lumber-prices-bubble-cost-wil... says it's over.
- xienze 5y ago
  I’m not an expert on the subject but I imagine lumber that builders buy is bought in terms of futures contracts. So whatever you buy today at a low price won’t actually be delivered for several months.
  - bombcar 5y ago
    Lumber is still $7 a stick (2x4 x 8ft) at Home Depot around here - about 3-5x what it was before.

paulpauper 5y ago

simple heuristic: to put a negative spin, use sales positive spin: use prices Sales tend to be much more volatile and cyclical than prices, so it's easy to find a negative data point

davidw 5y ago

The Shiller index is a bit of a lagging index: https://twitter.com/HousingRalph/status/1420020332774137856 https://twitter.com/HousingRalph/status/1420020332774137856

lupire 5y ago

That's the June data, which was down relative to May and April. Hence "boom over".